KMartin

I'll be leaving the forum , pending a change in where I'm at ... If they are made I'll return. But it was fun, have a good one.

The earlier image showed the PVA causing the lift - I won't be up to see it but I'm gathering on a flow like this the PSCZ will help spark more overnight. - night http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum15.jpg

That's not the point. I don't look at NWS , I forecast custom. I wouldn't know what they or any news outlets say ... And yes, models do show the chance, models are guidance tools ... What I used to forecast thunderstorms up there ... Every forecaster uses models... ... just matters how one interprets them I suppose.

I would say the PSCZ would fire more cells off tonight, yes?

There's the lightning bolts on the tracker http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum17.jpg

Lightning at the KLGX radar site and down the NW OR coast

Ah ok. Kinda like a moderate Santa Ana. Palm Trees where I am are pretty strong, sometimes those winds can top 80-100 mph.

Not taking much to knock the trees down is it? Salem reporting gusts in the 30s ... Must be the saturation.

Me and my wife hate the type of movies we both like. I settle on netflix TV shows. Had to sit through Hells Kitchen and other shows just to have quality spending time. It's RAW!!

Only during a divorce

My VIL radar mask shows some pretty good updrafts near Portland. Wouldn't be surprised if they had/have lightning with them. http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum16.jpg

Terrain influence is the reason and that's why they aren't producing offshore yet. Think as they move inland with the squall feature it will strengthen.

About the area I'll focus on -

Well that's good for those that are waiting to get in. However I really enjoy the freedom without a boss to put forecasts out. It's just what style of work I enjoy doing but some don't so that's good news for those who have been waiting. NWS has over 400 positions they haven't filled yet. Some offices are understaffed, in fact most are ... That's why I offer my custom alerts to my clients and viewers. I can help fill those gaps in because I don't need a major budget to inform them.

KOLM (Olympia, WA) - Before front 700-500 lapse rates are 6.4 c/km Afer front it's 7.4 c/km ... Front hits at 2z so along the front would be around 7.1 c/km so not bad at all. Lapse rates are acceptable as well.

I won't argue about my field of work in the private or commercial industry. Those who got degrees, that is good ... But I started my own venture because I saw how saturated the field would be. I know ones with met degrees who still work at fast food joints. It's a saturated business and with the predictive models today, more are going in because it's EASIER than in the 90s. So I do my own forecasting for clients and also full time on my site, which equals a full-time income. You don't need a degree to have a brain in this field. Many on this forum I've seen are just as good if not smarter than those who hold a degree. Degrees are for people whom want to get hired ... Not for people who want to own their own business in this field... See Bill Gates ...

Here is the PVA thought. I used the 500mb vort on the COD website. This is the RAP. You can see the upper divergence by the spread in heights on and ahead of the trough axis. But there is something else. Notice the blue/purple over Western WA. That's low vorticity. Three hours later on the right image you can see its now red, or higher vorticity. This change from low to high values is called POSITIVE vorticity advection (PVA) ... The positive vorticity numbers are 'advecting' or advancing inward. This sharp move from low to high like that signifies some pretty nice upper dynamics in play. http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum15.jpg

Now let's do a mature conversation and go back and forth on why you think thunderstorms won't be possible and why I do. No one is right ... no one is wrong ... But I will listen to reasoning and when it happens it'll be a learning experience for the person who was wrong ... No harm done.

And do you blame me? I take things to PM when being harassed. I don't visually open in on the forum like before. You posting a PM clearly means you don't understand the defnition of personal message. You had TWO posts. Your first post was against me. Clearly you are one of those envious failed weather people who need to focus on building your own career in weather like I hae an a little less time following those who are more successful than you just to troll. I'm not going to open fire on you in the public forum, but I will state what I think of you trolls over PM. It's simple ... Do not address me online with BS where I need to defend myself. I'm too old for this crap and have been doing it for 18 years.

See now you are acting more where I'll engage in a conversation with you. I'll ask you why you don't think thunderstorms will hit even at the coast ... You have strong upper divergence moving in with the trough axis, drying above 18,000 feet so that with saturated 700mb levels will throw some instability in the mix and also in that mix -26C average temp in the cold pool so cold air aloft ... PVA is also very impressive with the vort coming in with the trough axis ... Your turn ...

I bet. Been wanting to take a drive to experience both a winter and a wind storm up there. Better than what we have down here that's for sure.

Yeah, I kinda am. Professional Met is someone who makes a living off of forecast the weather and I make a living with my site, my clients, and different media outlets who use my forecasts on a contract basis. You also have two posts, you just signed up ... Do not start trouble with me ... Mods need to ban you unless you decide to play nice, kid. Like I say all the time ... i NEVER start fights first ... I defend myself against trolls like you. Post more and don't just sign-up on here to belittle ME

My question is ... with the wind storms in the PAC NW and a squall-line with thunderstorms moving through ... wouldn't that count as a severe thunderstorm for those that get it... probably mainly coast of WA and NW OR where storms will be.

I labeled the trough axis with the red line ... Also the pink box would be the location of the 'sweep' of upper divergence on this axis ... which is where the better thunderstorm dynamics would be if there was such a thing as a 'thunderstorm watch box' up there. I know I have them for down here but that's about the box location for later on - http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum14.jpg

Def along my thoughts last night here - http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/02/15/three-wind-storms-to-affect-the-pacific-northwest-starting-saturday-as-atmospheric-river-hits/