Winterdog

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The only model tonight to give us any hope so far. The trends on the GFS, GEFS and GEM are horrid(for Oregon).

And the UKMET is just a tiny step ahead of the Farmers Almanac in accuracy.

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Can we wait for the ECMWF before jumping off a bridge?

I'm already airborne so it's too late for me

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not good trends. Not even a little. 80% chance this falls apart. Realistic. Go Euro!

If the GEFS is as bad as it appears there is nearly a zero chance of this having an arctic outcome.

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's one run of one model.  Sheesh!

That was really my point.  A 32 degree bump in temperatures from one run to another is quite rare especially if the past couple days worth of runs were cold.  

I have been watching these models for close to 20 years and I can't remember a pullback of this magnitude over one run.  Seattle has gone from single digits to over 40 degrees on this run!  Long live above normal January's.

I almost drained my well pump today.  At least I won't have to do that now.

Wow, it's over, just like that.

1 minute ago, Ziess said:

Doing it again, weird. 

 

Happening to me as well

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not as much as people rooting for windstorms. jk But seriously that's the one weather type I really don't like.

 

Currently at 40F here.

I'm with you on that sentiment brother.

13 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

So let's not pretend it's on it own out there.

I wasn't pretending, I'm really that stupid!

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, and no. It's no like it's out there on it's own. 

Right, it does have the control as a roommate but it is on the fringe for sure.  I hope it holds on to this new take.

Ya think the 12Z Euro was an outlier?

The Euro has me with 20" of snow and a -1F temp at the end of the run.  I am not on board this far out but it sure is captivating, especially it being the Euro.

At hour 221 I'm 22 degrees warmer on the 0Z than the 18Z but still sitting at 16 degrees.

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

They never said it would happen, they just pointed out that the models are showing some hysterical outcomes, which they are.

Fixed it

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

One is 2m (surface) temps, one is 850mb temps.

Yeah, I could have stared at that thing for an hour and probably never would have seen that huge label telling me that.

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Surface vs 850 mb

Thanks!  I knew there had to be an explanation.

9 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

The ops run is definitely in a world of its own 

Your graph doesn't look much like this one.  The average line on yours never gets near -5 while this on shows an average below -5 much of the timeline.  Why is that?

34 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i cant believe how many people are sick right now. especially people with kids. My wife and I are FINALLY starting to feel better after a nasty cold that evolved into a sinus infection and a terrible deep cough that will probably take two months to totally disappear. Miserable house for the holidays. 

My wife and I are just getting over that exact same thing.  My cough lasted 6 weeks and her sinus infection is still going a bit.  Never got terribly miserable but it was bad enough that you didn't want to go anywhere or do anything.  49 here after a low of 41, partly cloudy

Always nice to start out the year below freezing.  Had a low of 29 and now 32 with a blue dappled sky.  Happy New Year to all.

I have standing water in the usual places now after 2.12" of rain since yesterday.  Raining now and 51 which is the low for the day.  It was 58 at 2am for the high so far.  Total precip so far this month 4.12".  Calm winds. Bare trees, gray hair.

Heck with the Euro and the GFS, I’m going with my Davis Forecast.

58 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Fun fact: I've never owned an umbrella.

Nor have I and I and I'm waaaay older than you.

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... DirectV has blacked out NBC due to contract dispute.   Can't watch SNF tonight.   

We are on Dish here and they have not carried CBS for months now due to a contract dispute.  I was able to watch the Alabama/Georgia game through our Air TV antenna.  Occasionally had screen pixelation but for the most part the picture comes in very well and we are out in the country.  

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As a fan I am happy because it gives us a shot at winning. Now of course the downside is if we had played Ohio State and lost no one would say anything, if we lose to Liberty... UGH.

It's just a shame really that a close game loss dropped them from possibly ending up playing for the national championship to competing against a team most people haven't even heard of before.  I know as it turned out even if they had beaten Washington they wouldn't have made the cut for the final four, but at game time it was thought to be a real possibility.