Winterdog

Tonights Euro will be the s**t ... Interpret that however you like...

It's gonna be a stinker!

I was kind of shocked when I just looked at the WRF. It shows 925mb temps dropping to -6 over Seattle later in the week. Pretty amazing to see it that cold again so soon. We can go for an entire winter without seeing it that cold. The model shows the classic Arctic outbreak (surface pressure) signature at the beginning of the event, but the moisture is lacking...at least for now.

The moisture isn't lacking for Portland south on the 18Z. Looks like they might have snow on the ground going into the cold period and Christmas. How unnerving!!

Let's just say New Years still has a great shot at being good.

Especially if the Huskies beat Alabama.

Fairly decent chance this was the real peak.   Might be a secondary one later in January.

Exactly! The most likely outcome is one more brush with arctic air before March. If we happen to get lucky and it hits us more directly then Jim will be dancing on the bar top delighted by his forecasting skills.

One last thing...people need to remember many of our great winters had little or no snow up to this point.  The despair on here seems a bit misguided to me.

My despair is perfectly placed. I remember many more of our lousy winters that had little or no snow up to this point.

Yeah has gotten quite healthy here over the last half hour! Such a pleasant surprise today!

I saw 16 flakes this morning, each providing a miniature snowscape of their own.  Another winter memory I'll treasure for years.

Doesn't look like the northeast is going to bake around Christmas like it looked just a couple days ago.  Quite a turn-around.

The clouds have already arrived from the north.  21 here but it won't be dropping more than a couple more degrees now. 

It likes your area better for Sunday morning.

Short lived but better than nothing!

I love it there, last summer I bought another 160 acres just 3 miles south of chesaw between lost lake and beth lake.

Wonderful area. Moose have been seen around there and particularly in the swampy area between the highway and Bonaparte lake. I'll stop talking off subject now before I start getting flak.

I like

0z hi-res para NAM likes widespread light snow showers from Tacoma to Salem tomorrow afternoon.

Good to see most of the action going on south of Snohomish county... we wouldn't want to get spoiled.

-7 in cheesaw

I've spent some time in Cheesaw. Almost bought some property on Maryanne creek near there but was too dumb and too young to take the chance. I imagine you have visited the ghost town set up there in town and the old school house. Good fishing in Beth and Beaver lakes. We still occasionally stay at Bonaparte lake in one of the cabins. We have been going there for over 40 years.

23 here now but the satellite says high clouds will start moving in here within about 3 hours. Probably have a cloud modified low of 18 or 19. I hope this upcoming trip back to normal is as short as possible!

Temp holding steady at 30 here.

 

BLI is 26 at noon, racking up a pretty impressive stretch of cold now. 

I just love being perched here between the arctic air and the snow.  34 and climbing here after a nice blanket of insulating clouds all night.  They may hang around and help keep us cozy tonight as well.  Bye bye from Neverland where sometimes the puddles freeze.

Regardless of what happens Wed/Thurs, the fact there are a decent amount of 00z ensemble members between -5 and -10c right around Christmas is incredibly nice to see.

 

Sure things can, and will, change but the potential is there and we can't ask for much more than that right now.

Potential sucks.

The Euro looks a bit colder than 12Z at hr 96.  A colder pool east of the mountains for PDX to hold onto their snow (lousy bastards).

Well the GFS 0Z sure stinks for anyone north of Portland.  The precip will have to make a huge jump to help us out up here in Neverland.

Haha we don't even get an overrunning event coming out of this thing at hour 156!  Same old crap different year.  Looks damp at hour 168!

Thankfully I already wrote this one off for my area last night.  Anything will be a bonus now.

 

That must have been the string of references you made to male gentitalia and the like.

This sucker could still turn north.  Still in the clown range so anything can happen.  Right?

Come on NAM shove that thing up!!

 

We are so screwed!  Somehow we have found a way to live in never-never land for snow.  We don't even get colder, we just get no snow.  North of us they get snow, south of us they get snow, east of us they get snow, west of us, on the Kitsap peninsula they get snow, the NAM was our only hope and now it's turned away from us.

Winds have switched to northeast at Arlington.  Still 39 here.

Still in the clown range with this.  Were talking 60 hours out, geesh!

18z NAM shows a track for Wed/Thu great for Puget Sound, borderline for Portland.

The 4k NAM shows rain though for most of the sound lowlands.

Nice snow event on Sunday for all of western WA on the 12Z ECMWF... with the obligatory hole over the swamps of Pierce County (no joke).

Does it show any for the Arlington area? Never mind I just saw the map