Snow

00z Canadian is cold. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_192_0850.gif

00z GFS not good.

18z GFS looks very similar to 12z ECMWF with a L dropping from the NW and making landfall somewhere along the Oregon coast. Problem is that 18z GFS is even weaker with the low. Last time in early December the models picked up on this L rather quickly and never blinked. The best we can hope for is the models strengthening this L.

The ECMWF run out to day 5 is almost perfect. Cold air from the eastern basin will get filtered to the valleys with a low heading inland. Beautiful setup. http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/GZ_PN_192_0000.gif

You don't need cold thickness if the cold pool east of the cascades is cold with offshore flow. The Gorge in Oregon had ice/snow last night because of the cold pool. Crown Point recently had gust to 122mph because of the colder than usual pool eastside.

I just looked at the 00z GFS and it's rather good. From all the talk I would of thought it was bad or everybody lives in Oregon lol. Vancouver BC gets a nice snowstorm, plenty cold up there with offshore flow. Seattle maybe, hard to say, but higher hills should get snow. Oregon all rain but it evens itself out because they already got 8 inches in early December.

Seriously, Atlanta getting snow? SMH.....

There is no question that in the long run the cold air slides east. The best we can hope for is cold enough temps where a L pulls offshore winds to produce an overrunning event where the snow sticks around for atleast a day or so. Getting cold air is good and all but you really need something to pull the cold winds from the east side. Feb 1993: Feb 1995:

I never really look at he 06z and 18z runs, they are less accurate.

I dont trust the Euro because it wants to get the whole SW cold and that wont happen without the NW getting cold. http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/GZ_PN_240_0000.gif

Arctic Cold and Snow.

00z Canadian model shows something same like GFS. L off the coast ready to go inland with arctic air in place. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

Vancouver and Seattle will get a transition event later on, maybe Portland too.

Looks like a repeat of early Dec on the 00z GFS. Eugene south gets all the snow and Portland gets an inch, nothing for Seattle and Vancouver.

The 18z GFS looks like a repeat of early Dec. -15 cold air arrives but no moisture until too warm temps to support snow.

The 18z GFS is super, it brings arctic air. For Vancouver BC and Seattle, 850 temperatures get to -15 and for Portland/Troutdale -13. All of this is inside 228 hours, getting closer now.