WeatherArchive

    If we ever see those winters again then I've got a bridge to sell in New York City.   Models need to be updated to reflect it the long range or even medium range garbage is still reflecting of the old ways which is why we have cold weather just 10 days away!

   There are many factors both natural and man made from various levels and departments that have changed our climate enough to write a blog about.   If all you do is stare at the MSM tube it will  make your brain explode from TMI when you see what's really going on past the boob tube.   This forum many times have become close to Reddit or Quora level.  At least your not yelled at with a login page forced to give up your personal info to a far away company,.

Spring is coming early! Yes! :)

8E3074C9-7798-4B96-B175-CC1865B6EF83.p

Not like we ever left it.

Not as weird as feeling the Spring Break earthquake in Paradise California (Butte County at an elevation of 2,000 feet) almost where Richard lives now.   That one woke me up which I was six years old and thought Dad was shaking my bed until I realized it was an earthquake and I stupidly ran to the window to see anything but it was 4AM.  We went to the news and found out about the strong shaking in Oregon at that time.  Paradise formally called (Pair o Dice) due to the saloons it used to boast is centered on a series of ridges and underneath the ridges is old abandoned mines which our house was near a sink hole for one of them.  If the earthquake was any stronger it would've likely collapsed some of them.  Reno Nevada had skyscrapers sway a bit kinda like feeling tipsy after one too many or perhaps it was the 89 earthquake that did that.  I know one of them did that all the way at Reno Nevada. 

 

The West coast is weird how it amplifies earthquakes.

 

The 1989 earthquake was also amplified and felt as water sloshing back and forth in Paradise.  

Want answers check this out. 

Don't want answers then just keep bashing away like a keyboard warrior. Anyways 1.26 of rain with the majority late morning. It was dark as a skunk's inside this morning.  We also had a power bump this evening which I thought it was my imagination playing tricks until I saw all the street lights off and then warming up again.  We have the crappy mercury bulbs for our streetlights which take 5 mins to warm up. Very noticeable if there is a power cut.

The question remains if there is any actual cold air to tap into. If there isn't then there isn't. You can't just make something for nothing though Congress has been good at that until recently and the media is acting like big cry babies that their free cotton or should I say rotten candy is taken away. Though perhaps it will save their teeth from rotting away while spring keeps springing into Oregon?

 

God it is SO warm without breaking any records either.  It felt like late March out there today and people were out and about like a nice March day.  We ALMOST mowed our grass as it's very tall but it's still a tad too wet for the mower to work properly. Tomorrow is very likely if we don't get any more showers.  It's suppose to be even warmer around 60F.   No fog so things are likely a go.    

 

If we can't have decent mountain snowfall then give us the sun and fun!    Yee haw let er rip!

So how far off were the forecasters?  I remember some of you all ranting about a NE Pacific Index Snow Whizard (Wizard?) came up with and I had a sneaky suspicion it wouldn't work out due to the lack of amplification up north due to many reasons I won't get into here. 

 

It's mid winter (in a meteorological sense) and it's time to see how we are doing. Feb is half way here and it's a big deal now just to reach normal!

 

What I am curious is how do you feel about the forecasts? Not the actual winter itself but the way your predictions turned out.  Do you think you were almost spot on or missed it by a mile? Is it the "craw?" or the claw? (Joke from Get Smart TV Show)

 

Should we just speak into the cone of silence? https://www.wouldyoubelieve.com/graphics/cone_title.gif

Without Artic air to even begin with what do you expect?  You can't have Artic Air without it being to the north of us or is it the NW?. 

Real Scientists that don't have a political agenda to spew we call this warm age "Inter Glacial" meaning between mini ice age events.  Yes it will be warm for the next 200 years with the peak being 100 years from now so we still have a ways to go yet.   

 

The good news is we will have long summers if you don't mind that sort of thing so the trend is for Sacramento to come north. Eugene has already had a taste of it.   The usual ice cream locations have been REALLY busy hopping the last few summers due to lengthy warmth mostly at night even during the bad economy when nothing else was happening much you can guarantee they will run out of ice cream and have. 

 

This year 50 years ago would've been a big foot hill snow pattern.  The valleys I'm sure would've still been screwed but Andrew's and Tim would've been snowed in and wished for it to stop and it would've been exciting to go up to Detroit to see.

So is Wilsonville/Oregon City like a cut off point for minor events?

16-17 winter - 9" (3 events in Dec, 2 in Jan)

 

2017 - 3" (2 events in January)

 

17-18 winter - 0"

I think your location is similar to Stayton is that correct?

Does a tiny bit of ZR count? Cause that's all we got which froze the car door shut during the Christmas eve event and another small event in early December though not from any rain but from the air itself freezing when we had the first of the colder weather.

Day 10 nope, and sure looks different than previous runs.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011300/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

Of course it's different it's more realistic. If there is nothing (upstream?) then there is nothing to tap into. Models schmodels.  Just look up north to see if there is any available then your head won't get spun around.  The models are only as good as the human operators that put in the (expired) data.

Thank goodness it's not El Herrio doing anything it shouldn't.  The US East Coast actually is at great risk if that ever goes. Look it up! I wish I were joking but here won't be anything left of the east coast if the tsunami happens from that volcano. The modest approach shows no less then a 1,200 foot wave that would strike within hours if El Herrio were to go completely.   First striking Florida then traveling up towards the Hudson Valley though at that stage most momentum would be gone.

We never learn. I am still clinging to hope for February.

https://youtu.be/SHhrZgojY1Q We Won't Get Fooled again!

If I were Soros or even his son instead of destroying economies and destabilizing nations I'd use that money to build better radars in blind spots and more sensors.etc

Stoned uncle looking better!

JUST 10 DAYS AWAY! OH MY GOD!   (Head explodes).http://www.cool-smileys.com/images/288.gif   All right everybody rinse and spit!  Just kidding!  

 

Hopefully we can get some decent gusts out of the Thursday system.  There is 0.83 of rain since yesterday afternoon.

What I suspect you fail to recognize is we come "close" and have terribly bad luck pretty frequently. In fact it's not luck, it's climatology. Top shelf cold patterns here are generally fleeting and require quite a bit of atmospheric specificity. To think you can foresee these coincidences at such a long lead and accurately predict sustainability to probably a once or twice a century level is pretty hard to rationalize.

Give him some slack. A broken clock works right twice a day!

I don't usually have a clue of what Phil says most of the time.

Same but Phil is not as bad as Richard. (shudders).  Phil is a LOT more tolerable. 

But to be fair and honest, Phil was one of the biggest hype machines on here leading up to the winter. Talking about 3 week Arctic blasts, etc - things that don't go along with PNW climo at all. Not sure it makes much sense to single him out as one of the "select few" grounded in reality. 

I agree. It's kinda hard to take anyone seriously that think we will have a month of Artic blasts on (this) date or that.  The climo is what it is and we are in an interglacial period for a reason!  The peak will be a hundred years from now then we will see minor dips from solar minimums but nothing extreme.

I fully expect a March - May full of 45-degree rainy days.

 

There will probably lots of posts about how great this pattern would have been in the middle of winter.   <_>

I predicted that back in December seeing the stagnant oceans.  As long as oceans are stagnant (which is for a variety of reasons I wont' get into as everyone is into their own little bubble) nothing will move. It's how the movement of the earth works.

Stayton gets fairly similar weather to Mahlon Sweet airport where Eugene records it. We are almost nothing like McNary airport weather. I think the hills between Salem and Stayton block some of the weather and act as a (mini) rain shadow though no where near the extent the 5,000 foot Olympics provides!

OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now.  I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days.  If they don't

I have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season.

 

  One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration.  A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be.

 

1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)

2. Higher SOI

3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin

 

Historically these have been favorable triggers for us.

 

This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so.  Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs.  All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome.

Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it?  Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of.  (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men)

It's been mentioned in the PNW thread that east of the Rockies is trending colder.  It seems Texas is the place to go for cold weather fix despite it's high long heat in the summer you get rewarded from Dallas north.  Makes it worth it to suffer the long summers.

Which gets it better/longer.etc?  Would you prefer Oregon or Washington?  It seems from Salem south there is a lot of screw potential more then you guys up north.  Would Medford be a good climate for small snow events ie: 1-2 inchers since it sits higher then the Willamette valley in elevation despite being further south?

Takes real talent to spin the 00z runs in a positive light.

That's why I never gamble.  The GFS is basically the gamble model.  Not worth it's weight.  The EURO is more correct even if it isn't what we like.

Just for the record it's above 50F now here in Oregon!    51 to be exact and 99 percent humidity. G-R-O-S-S. This is axe smiley weather.