Dadio

58 mph recorded in Vancouver (trained spotter)

 

Here are some pics I pulled from FB of the wind damage so far.

Nice collection of pics.

Wow, exciting times for everyone over here. I'll have to watch and see how this works out. Good luck everyone.

Jesse, are you excited about the possibilities?

Richard, I'm glad you agree with the question. Concerning your second paragraph where you tend to disagree. I  do not think we know enough about the cyclic nature of the various oscillations to accurately forecast what our possible climate will be during the next year or 50 years. There are some who think they do know. If they are right long term forecasting should improve. At this point accurate understanding of where the climate is going in the next 5 to 15 years or even 6 months is not proven. That kind of understanding is theoretical. I hope you have a theory which will be proven accurate.

If the last 100 years of climate in the U.S. West Coast has been driven by wind patterns and not forced by AGW, what happens when wind patterns shift? 

I would say our best bet is to consider the following possibility. Our climate can still  be just as cold as anytime in the last 2 to 3 hundred years. Personally I like cold and snow, but warmth is easier to deal with.

I do not believe we know enough to understand what the underlying causes are of the multi-decadal oscillations. If I understand Richard correctly, I  agree with him about wanting to have an idea of what our future climate, U.S West Coast, might have in store for us. IMHO, I think we can only say we might get climate temperatures within what we have already established as possibilities because of the past. 

Fun to follow.

Surprising PNAS paper: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S West Coast warming.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/22/surprising-pnas-paper-co2-emissions-not-the-cause-of-u-s-west-coast-warming/

And if you don't like WATTSUPWITHTHAT:

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2024601865_climateweatherstudyxml.html

It looks like global warming is providing the north-central part of the country with some early cold weather. At least I've heard that AGW is to blame for any extreme weather.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/12/the-big-chill-comes-early-record-winter-blast-hits-northern-plains/

It is a very interesting event. The Air mass pushing down out of the north causing the outflow from the Columbia basin is making for many record lows in the next couple of days.

Without the Columbia river gorge cutting through the cascades into the columbia basin. There would not be a path for the east wind. You are right Richard. It is the topography driving the weather event or as you state, quoting part of what you said,: '... more geographically (topographically.) driven than anything else.'

Yes, based on what another person, Rob, says. I'm expecting this event to over perform. With the deciduous trees still carrying all of their leaves it could be bad. 

From what I understand a mass of cold air descending into the Rockies is the immediate cause of this wind. That event is interesting to me. I am looking forward to seeing how it works out. There should be records to look at to see how this stacks up against other years. I know we can't get a great feel of the coming winter based on just one event, but it might lead to some interesting correlations. I would love to see the winter of 1888 starting out in Early September with a similar Rocky mountain event.  I am wildly speculating.

Hello all. There is a very early wind storm starting tonight around midnight in the Portland area. I'm surprised no one is talking about it on here. I wonder what this type of early wind event might say about the coming winter.

Here is a link for more information about the wind event.  http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/09/10/unusually-strong-east-wind-thursday/

This is how the WRF is modeling the snowstorm late this weekend and into Monday. No way to know if it will happen, although I am pretty confident that cyclogenesis will occur off the BC coast with the amount of cold air coming off the interior.

 

See http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/125-brown-and-younkin-1970-850-mb-lows-and-heavy-snow/.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/e1eqab.jpg

Thanks for the wonderful map.

Yeah...I suppose. Talk about a hollow victory though.

I agree with the positive encouragement you received. I've always been glad for you bringing up the possibilities. You nailed this possibility. Thanks.

Temperatures have dropped some in the Olympia area with the rain, but it isn't looking like we'll get any more snow down here. Good luck to everyone up north.

Probably Mason County and the outflow areas of the East Puget Sound lowlands.

Looking at the radar there is some snow falling on the front of it.

I say it's a 50 / 50 shot.  If the moisture blob has enough oomph to slightly tighten up the offshore gradient ahead of it I think there is still plenty of cold air available.  It also appears precip rates could get pretty heavy and the MM5 models indicate 925mb cold enough for snow if there is decent precip intensity until early evening.  Don't count this one out at all.  I think this is a rogue batch of moisture and not associated with the warm front expected later.

Okay. What areas do you think might if it works out have another chance at snow? It does look like some fairly intense precipitation. So far it is looking like all rain from the radar.

melting started around 10:30 11ish here so not too far off. When precip moves in it will likely be plain old rain. 

Yeh, it is looking that way for me. Glad for the snow we got. It was beautiful and still nice.

Glad to see the dew points staying in the low twenties east of the mountains. I hope the warm up doesn't get rid of all the cold in the Columbia Basin.

up to 35.0 and melting snow here. 

Olympia started melting about 11:00 am. I'm surprised it waited that long.

You do have a point, but this appears it will fall into the window that normally delivers something down to 500 feet or lower.  Especially if a c-zone develops or pressure gradients go flat.  It seems that late winter is often the best time for mP air masses to deliver lowland snow.  It has happened in March many times in recent years.

I like your optimism about future snow events. The only problem I have is that your optimism at times obscures what I know is your vast knowledge about the PNW weather. Other than that go ahead and get excited. 

It's been overcast all morning in Olympia. I'll be very surprised if we get any additional, measurable snow here. Glad you guys on the eastside are getting more.

Waiting for the warm up still west of Philomath in the woods. Lost power at 6 last night in heavy freezing rain. Eerie to sit in the hot tub listening to mature Douglas firs crashing down every few minutes without a breath of wind. Still hearing the occasional crash this morning. Tree just missed our house and car, so far no property damage.

How is your hot tub heated if you lost power? It can be a mess with heavy ice.

We added another inch of snow last night. Now we have 5-7 inches of snow. It depends on the type of surface. It must of been above freezing when the snow started. It does look beautiful outside.

Here you can see why the snow exploded inside the band of moisture ... The green is the upper divergence split ... between that 'split' is the pink-outline zone of stronger upper divergence aloft, therefore strong lifting ...

 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum12.jpg

I really like how you take time to explain what you know. Other folks on here have done similar at times. What do you think the precipitation and temperature are looking like tomorrow morning? I'm guessing I'll be above freezing by 10:00, but I really don't know. Temperatures up by Bellingham don't even look that cold.

In some places I have only 3 inches. In others I have 5 inches. It depended on the type of surface the snow fell on. Starting to snow harder at this time. Hope the temps continue falling tonight. It would be fun to have some more snow in the morning before it starts to melt.