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ajreich

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Everything posted by ajreich

  1. ajreich
    Looking at the raw QPF it’s easy to see how we end up with a big surprise tomorrow.
  2. ajreich
    Haha I’m just assuming we will. Have the batteries and generator ready to go, but could be scary for a lot of folks. I’m not sure most people understand what’s coming with the wind chills.
  3. ajreich
    Temp down to 23 in the west hills at 600’. Dropping fast now.
  4. ajreich
    It’ll be interesting! All the models have right now for moisture is some buoy data and incomplete satellite measurements. This is theoretically where Spire should do really well as they’ll have much better initialization data. We’ll only really know once the front gets over land, good times!
  5. ajreich
    Just about down to freezing at 600’ in the west hills. 33 currently. Seems like the cold air is a touch faster than NWS was forecasting.
  6. ajreich
    Portland tomorrow
  7. ajreich
    I think Mark is really good with marginal setups because he’s conservative and that usually wins 75% of the time when temps are iffy. But…with setups are colder like this I think he busts far more often because precip tends to overdo what’s modeled. We’ll see though!
  8. ajreich
    This is why I hate the NBM sometimes: this is the model result distribution, not the actual probability of snow occurring, which is much greater given the likely model errors. I think there’s a much better than zero likelihood they bust on the high side somewhere between Salem and Kelso given everything. But you wouldn’t know it from reading the AFD
  9. ajreich
    Uhh I guess timberline got a bunch of snow
  10. ajreich
    Portland NWS AFD page is down
  11. ajreich
    Wow! That’s 3x what it was last week. Amazing storm.
  12. ajreich
    If I remember, the NAM 12k did great with the Jan 17 storm in PDX. The only model to accurately pick up the snow bands caused by the gorge outflow. A not totally dissimilar situation, depending on where the front stalls out.
  13. ajreich
    Hope you have a speedy recovery and get feet of snow
  14. ajreich
    All snow and fat flakes now at 33 degrees at 600 feet. Quite the temp drop off in the last 15 min.
  15. ajreich
    No way Portland is at 17 and that’s not all snow.
  16. ajreich
    Looks juicy.
  17. ajreich
    Very chunky rain already at 600’ in the west hills
  18. ajreich
    GEFS direction is pretty clear. Total cave to the colder solutions.
  19. ajreich
    Weird, a lot of the forum disappeared again. Technical difficulties maybe?
  20. ajreich
    Oh I’ve been here seven years, just don’t pay attention to you most of the time I guess
  21. ajreich
    So….you don’t want to have an evidence-informed discussion?
  22. ajreich
    Huh? The GEFS went a lot farther towards the cold solutions in the last 3 days than other models warmed up. The GEFS went from a Sunday temp of 40+ in PDX 48 hours ago to a Sunday temp in the 20s last night. Euro went from low 20s to mid 20s in the same timeframe!
  23. ajreich
    I for one am excited! Don’t forget, these runs are all just normal behavior - stochastic oscillations around the solution mean. The euro solution last night was just another range of solutions around that emerging mean. Take a look at the temp meteogram for PDX - very consistent variations around a common solution for 5+ days. This is why the Euro is much more accurate! Now the same for the GFS - much noisier and less run to run temporal and geographic consistency! It’s not been performing well and probably won’t be particularly reflective of weather 5 days from now. It’s probably gonna snow and be cold for most of us!
  24. ajreich
    In all fairness, I think they’re probably occupied primarily right now with the blizzard happening in 48 hours
  25. ajreich
    Uh that’s juicy
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