wxmet

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of the models are kind of screwing King County.  Thankfully the Euro usually handles these things better.

A lot of models? King County is in a good position right now with all the latest trends

2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

For some reason north seattle seems to be less than other places. Hope its underdone

Low position just south of the mouth of the Columbia River climatologically speaking should allow areas north of the Seattle metro to cash in too similar to what the GFS12z is showing.

Substantially less snow for Seattle and points northward on the UKMET 12z while PDX cashes in about the same.

Pretty sizable shift south on the UKMET which hopefully means the northern trend is coming to a stop

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's time for the NWS to sound the alarms!

I do agree with this that a Winter Storm Watch should be issued if the trends continue with the rest of the 12z suite. This would be a crippling event and people need time to be prepared especially with COVID-19 still around.

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It would be nice if the northern trend could stop now though. Making me a bit nervous.

It’s all going to come down to the timing of that trough coming down the B.C. to prevent the storm from coming any further north. Hoping the northern trend stops here but wouldn’t be surprised if it continues.

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS might still be showing snow for the Seattle area on Saturday but the 850mb temps look ugly by that morning.

An anomaly map is not the same as the actual readings which maintain themselves below freezing at 850mb.

Finally the GFS is joining the party

It's shearing out the weekend system but no other model degenerates the off-shore low like this before the precipitation is able to make it inland. Still an outlier but it's slowly catching up to the other models.

Next system is further north as well and looks more amplified than the previous run. Massive differences at 500mb.

GFS 06z is much further north with the upper level low in the Pacific

NAM still insisting on that c-zone Wednesday night over Seattle.

Run is looking like the ICON, UKMET, CMC. GFS is a clear suppressed outlier.

Just now, MossMan said:

Yuck for my area. Let’s hope this run does not verify. 

It spreads north by 108 hr.

Big system incoming from the west at 102 hr.

Approaching 3in. at KSEA by 96hr

Snow starts falling early Thursday morning on the ECMWF.

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

A degree or two colder at 850mb through Wednesday afternoon vs 12z.

Pacific is warmer which suggests the low will come in further north

RM was too lazy to make a PNW focused map but you get the idea

It literally snows for 4 days straight on the UKMET.

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What is the UKMET based off?

The UKMET is the UKMET

Speechless.

Approaching 2 feet in SEA and PDX at 126hr.

WOW UKMET.