wxmet

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also... the 06Z GFS did more of the reach back to the west with the main trough like the ECMWF and yet the low offshore still went right into northern CA on Thursday with all the moisture on that run.

The ECMWF is slower with the shortwave dropping down the B.C. which allows the Pacific systems to come further north as a result.

Good thing the GFS is lost. This suppression is a bit too much. The only saving grace this run was the Arctic front and c-zones.

TPV prevents the system from coming north.

Two inches total into Seattle by Wednesday

Past few runs of the GFS and NAM have shown the C-zone developing early Monday

Sorry for posting the wrong RGEM run. It's late. Here's the right one:

ICON 06z

NAM wants a more aggressive Arctic front with better off-shore connection like the RGEM

Quite a few big hitters among the EPS ensembles

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Yup 33/27 day Thursday on my phone app as well...words out everyone it’s over not gonna happen. 

30/21 on Thursday here with snow forecast for Saturday and Sunday.

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The passive rate of messages on the forum tonight is insane. It's rivaling February 2nd/3rd, 2019 levels here.

This forum is now in storm mode

The medium range is the ECMWF's deadly range. It's more likely the GFS, CMC et al will come around its solution than the other way around.

So either things get suppressed to the south or we get a historic snowstorm. Lots to work out in the coming week.

With a meridional jet orientation and divergence within the jet left exit region there is room for the low to track north and precip to extend well into Washington.

That low will have room to track north as the flow is basically southwest to northeast however cold air is in place thanks to the TPV.

More of Oregon will be able to cash in as another low approaches this time with more cold air at 150hr.

Euro is a little too close for comfort at this range. A lot of this is going to come down to the timing of the shortwave to the north as to how far the low will be able to get.

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Never want to see the trough elongate from W to E they often tend to stall to the north.

This is different. The shortwave is still digging south due to the TPV circulation.

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 ahhh don't like that

What do you mean? This is great lol

Friday system is further north on this run. Would be interesting if we could get a partial or complete phase with the TPV shortwave dropping down.