Tom

12z Euro blowing up a monster cutting up the OV...

12z GGEM not as cold...and went north.

12z GFS took a step in the right direction and kicks the energy out quicker and trying to phase the system in the Midwest. Previous runs it was leaving the energy back in the SW while the trough kicked out in front of the wave. Both Euro/GFS ensembles have better phasing.

00z GGEM...nothing special this run. I thought the 00z GFS was on the right track but transfers its energy to the east way to fast.

The24Weatherman, let's make a friendly bet...if you think Spring will arrive around March 16-18th...I'll make a friendly bet with you that we see the exact opposite and a major push of late season arctic air. I have many reasons for my thinking, but I will reveal 2 of them that have worked for me this season: 1) LRC pattern will repeat what we saw mid January when we had a 2 week period of brutal sustained cold 2) NE Pacific warm waters re-establish Alaskan ridge Deal???

Ya, that sounds really low. I have 2.5" and I'm about 3-4 miles away.

As of 12:00pm, ORD is officially at 75.2"...one more big system and we could set the record. So far ORD has had 6.8" of snow in March and it won't surprise me to see a huge month over here.

12z Euro still has about .50qpf mid week's system at ORD...

If this track stays put, I like where we stand because it will give us wiggle room for a jog NW as this system bombs out. The trend on intensifying systems this year (which I recall have been 1 or 2) have been NW. Euro has had a good handle on dynamic systems so I'm optimistic IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI are very much in the game with this storm mid next week.

12z Euro...this storm just explodes as it runs up OV. All indications are for a very significant storm system to hit somewhere in our region. Then the Euro tugs down some late season bitter cold after the storm departs.

BTW, CFSv2 is starting to reload some serious cold in Canada the last week of March into April. Could it be a reason the model is reacting this way and its due to the stratosphere trying to warm over N.A right now??? This is a relentless winter wx pattern that just doesn't seem to want to let go to easily.

Geo's, if you look at the pattern back on Jan 10th (give or take a few days when the storm that hit our region), the AO/NAO are forecasted to be almost the same come early next week. That is why a storm tracking in our area is very real and models are starting to hone in on that idea.

There are some interesting developments in the stratosphere over N.A. and signs of warming going on over the last week. Will keep an eye on it over the coming days.

Not necessarily true, if a Bearing Sea Low develops west of the Gulf of Alaska, that pumps a ridge on the west coast and produces a trough in the east. However, if a GOA Low develops, that will flood the country with warmth. You need to pay attention to where this develops.

LRC starting to show its pattern for early next week...I just hope a lot of us on here can enjoy 1 more big snow storm this winter.

2.4" so far IMBY...wondering how much (if any) LES develops. Actually, when I just glanced at the radar, there are some snow showers coming off the lake into Cook county. I'm actually getting some bigger flakes that look like LES.

+1 ED, there is that southward movement in the band that I was referring to...looks like NE IA is getting some real good snow now. Dubuque is in a good spot right now.

Some light LES showing up near MKE...

00z GFS...

00z NAM...shows the dip southeastward...

The Clipper is supposed to jog SSE and you can see that starting to happen on the back end of the snow shield near SD. You can see that the snow shield isn't going farther north of Rochester, MN and from there draw a line towards Madison, WI. LOT mentioned the HP to the north will push it south. The next few hours we should start seeing this if this holds true.

BTW, this is their 6-10 Day outlook...corrected colder for next week.

18z GFS...still robust in IA/SW Wisco...

I could care less what NOAA says, you can make your own decision on what the wx pattern will do. I have my own belief's and not hindering on the gov't to make my forecasts.

18z NAM...I'd expect WWA to be issued in N IL as well...