Tom

Just read Gary Lezak's blog and he mentioned that the pattern we saw around the Super Bowl period will be cycling through later this month into April and he does not expect a sudden change to warmer weather. He is expecting more cold and snowy conditions into April for the Great Lakes region. I have to agree with his prediction. The big storm early next week is a part of the LRC that brought 2 significant storm systems in Nov and back in Jan. If it repeats itself, the track would be close to N IL or somewhere nearby.

12z Euro spins up a strong storm up OV this run...still showing a good size storm somewhere in our region.

12z Euro looking a lot like the 12z GGEM for next Wednesday's system...

I'd imagine the precip shield is going to be much wider than what the Euro is showing. You have to make a human judgement when looking at what the general trend has been on all the models. This looks like it could be a decent event.

+ Tony, complete bust with last Saturday's system. I think it had less than .10qpf for ORD! LOL Anyway, I like what I'm seeing in the trend for the models. Showing some decent qpf totals that may warrant an advisory for this afternoons disco's.

12z Euro...

Skilling mentioned yesterday that the jet stream placement puts our region in the maximum lift tomorrow in the "right rear" entry region. Could be another surprise snowfall in the making.

Both NMM/GFS showing a lot more moisture than the NAM but the 12z 4km NAM not bad also...

^ Geo's, that would be redic if that much moisture fell...

12z GGEM...on board with a major storm early next week.

00z Euro EPS Control model still showed a major snowstorm for IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/MI into the east coast even though the 00z Euro OP went south through the Ohio Valley.

12z GFS...that looks pretty good for IA and for N IL/S WI. You just never know with these Clipper's how they develop. Just like last night, the northern counties of IL received a surprised 1.0-1.5" of snow.

00z Euro...

LOT mentioning there could be a LES set up for NE IL on Wednesday with this system as well.

18z GFS back to its cold/snowy pattern from Plains on east. Something I was referring to would happen around March 10-12th period as there would be a good 2 week period of cold and snow before the pattern shifts to a SW Flow around the last week of March.

Come on The24weatherman, this is your Footer to 2 Footer storm you've been asking for all season long! Haha, j/k...we'll see how this plays out but it certainly would put an exclamation point to our season over here.

Models have been showing a couple disturbances to traverse the region tonight and a more robust clipper Tue/Wed period. Here is the 18z NAM snowfall map. Went a bit south this run with the Tue/Wed event.

It just hasn't been your winter in the Plains this season. The pattern has been relentless around the lakes/Midwest and you guys can't buy a decent snow storm this year. As the seasonal jet stream shifts farther north maybe you guys can cash in on a big Spring time snow storm before winter is over.

12z Euro Precip...I'd pray to the Snow God's if this transpired. It would be another LSD shutdown. Nearly 2.0" of qpf in N IL/SE WI and temps in the mid 20's! That would be well over 2 Feet of Snow. To bad its 10 days away....

Check this out for eye candy. I posted a map last night of a lower lakes cutter next Tue/Wed on the ensemble run and 12z Euro OP still on board and would fit with the pattern. From this storm alone, if the snowfall amounts transpire the way its being advertised now, all time snow records for the season would be shattered in IL/IN/MI.

12z NAM from clippers....nice hit N IL...

00z Euro showing nothing special...hits N IN/N OH...not as developed as the GGEM.

00z GGEM...confirmed...surprised how consistent it's been showing this system. Let's see if 00z Euro trends even better from it's 12z run today.

Down to 3F here in Des Plaines, I'd say -5F is attainable given how fast temps are dropping. Grid forecast is for -2F. I think temps will bust to high for overnight lows.

Geo's, the LRC cycles through the entire year thru end of September when you start seeing a transition in the wx pattern sometime around October 1st. If your asking about how long the cycle can last providing wintry weather, it could last until April the way things are shaping up but by then warm ups will come with increasing intensities. IMO, March will be the last month where true winter conditions take up residence for extended periods of time. Sooner or later the back to winter will be broken but I don't see it happening any time soon. Maybe the last week of March when the LRC pattern enters a SW Flow pattern and systems ride farther NW and we get into the warm sector. I could see that happening.