Money

SREF Plumes increased a bit from its last run. 6+ members showing 6+ here compared to 21z which had 1. Mean is up to 3.8 from 2.6 in its earlier run. Shows 1.1 in MKE for Mean with 2 members showing 7+. 21z had 0 members showing more than 4 inches. DBQ: 21z: Mean: 1.94 Highest: 4.84 Lowest: 0.01 03z: Mean: 3.86 Highest: 9.83 (7 showing 6+) Lowest: 0.23

So we got GFS/UKMET with sub 980 over or N. of DBQ and we have RGEM/HRW NNM/NAM all taking it to Milwaukee/Chicago area with the ECMWF in-between.

Yup. .8-1 + QPF across most of MKE CWA that's frozen. Should be an interesting forecast discussion. All the hi-res model showed a farther SE track too. Usually they are the farthest NW.

989 over E S. LM. Farther SE and gives S. WI warning type snowfall

6z NAM is even colder than 0z NAM. Interesting...

Nice -30 850 mb temps showing up on the euro at hr 216 at 2-28 0z. GFS/GGEM agrees. GGEM with -35 to -40 2M temps at HR 216/228 in MN lol.

All rain I am assuming for S and E/C WI?

0z ECMWF HR 48: 987 over Sheboygan, WI

GB VFR VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. FOR THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW...THEN BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTIONS...IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE...BUT CONVECTION COULD CHANGE IT OVER TO HEAVY SNOW.

Met on American: Most of the 8-14" of snow that fell from DC to the NYC metro last Weds night through Thursday night was intense WAA driven snows Weds night into Thurs AM. Combo of wet bulbing initially and dynamic cooling kept the column supportive of mostly snow until the warmer air finally overcame. The 00z sounding last Thursday evening at OKX on central LI registered 7c at 850 mb. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM is legit with this wet bulbing/dynamic cooling set-up. GFS will not do as well picking up on this but its last 2 runs were hinting at it over northern IL and southern WI.

So recap of the models at HR 48 NAM: 985.8 MB near Walworth GFS: 984 MB near the Dells RGEM: 987 MB E of MKE GGEM: 989 MB near Walworth UKMET: 983 MB near DBQ HRW-NMM: 986 MB near Pontiac IL HRW-ARW: 990 MB near Rockford IL or so

0z UKMET: 983 MB over DBQ lol

Just to compare that model to the GFS. GFS has the 850 0 line from LSE to N of GB. That model has the 850 line at MKE at the same time period. Pretty drastic differences for a storm 2 days out.

Hmmm. HRW-NMM 850 MB temps at HR 45 (21z THU) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045&image=data%2Fhrw-nmm%2F00%2Fhrw-nmm_eus_045_850_temp_ht.gif&model=hrw-nmm-eus&area=eus&param=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140219+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

MKE SWS ...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY... A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BE INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA...MAKING IT A STORM TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOW PRESSURE TRACK TAKES IT FROM KANSAS CITY THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON... CONTINUING NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL THEN CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW. STRONG WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR AND LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG OUR VARIOUS MODEL SIMULATIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE STORM...RAISING THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. A SHIFT TO THE EAST WOULD BRING MORE SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS BY THURSDAY MORNING. YOU MAY WANT TO REVIEW YOUR PLANS AND HAVE ALTERNATIVES AVAILABLE IF NEEDED.

GB SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 912 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-191100- VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET- MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ 912 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014 ...A STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX TO ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM WILL TAKE A TRACK FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK WOULD CREATE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...A MIX OF SNOW... SLEET AND RAIN FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO TO WAUSAUKEE...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND A SLIGHT SHIFT WILL LEAD TO A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE OBSERVED CONDITIONS. LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING. AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE FOX VALLEY TO THE LAKESHORE. BECAUSE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY COLD...THE WINTRY MIX AND RAIN MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY OR POSSIBLY ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN... ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A STEVENS POINT TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN AN INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

GB is mostly all snow. They get SN from HR 39 to HR 49 then it switches to rain as the low tracks overhead. This is going to be a very tough call for the MKE office. A temp or two degree difference will mean everything in terms of precip etc

GGEM has precip starting as snow for S. WI as well. About 4-5 hours then it changes to rain in the MKE area. RN/SN line is literally right over head here south to DBQ

GGEM is showing the colder temps as well at hr 36. 850 mb line is probably a good 50-60 miles south and the low is a tad NE than 12z.

I'm more worried about freezing rain than snow. With a track to NE IL/MKE usually is good for here in terms of keeping the rain out etc.

What do you think about here in E/C WI? I'm about 60-70 miles NW of MKE.

So we got NAM/RGEM showing farther SE tracks taking the low into MKE/NE IL while the 0z GFS is farther NW and takes the low about 70-80 miles farther NW than those two.

GFS is way NW lol. Takes the low over me.

Bufkit for MKE 140220/1100Z 35 15010KT 29.0F SNPL 10:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.022 10:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.02 72| 26| 2 140220/1200Z 36 13009KT 30.1F SNOW 10:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 10:1| 1.7|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140220/1300Z 37 11010KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.236 13:1| 5.4|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 140220/1400Z 38 10011KT 31.9F SNOW 5:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219 10:1| 6.5|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.64 100| 0| 0 140220/1500Z 39 09016KT 31.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 9:1| 7.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0 140220/1600Z 40 08017KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.050 9:1| 7.1|| 0.01|| 0.05|| 0.83 0| 0|100 140220/1700Z 41 08017KT 31.5F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.05|| 0.84 4| 96| 0 140220/1800Z 42 09018KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.06|| 0.85 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140220/1900Z 43 09017KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.07|| 0.86 0| 0|100 140220/2000Z 44 11016KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.005 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.87 0| 0|100 140220/2100Z 45 11014KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.87 0| 0|100 140220/2200Z 46 10015KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.89 0| 0|100 140220/2300Z 47 11017KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 0.94 0| 0|100 140221/0000Z 48 12017KT 33.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.03 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140221/0100Z 49 16014KT 34.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.08 0| 0|100 140221/0200Z 50 23021KT 34.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 0| 0|100 140221/0300Z 51 24024KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 0| 0| 0 140221/0400Z 52 24023KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 0| 0| 0 140221/0500Z 53 24024KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 9:1| 7.1|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 0| 0| 0 140221/0600Z 54 24025KT 31.4F SNOW 19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 7.3|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.09 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140221/0700Z 55 24026KT 30.6F SNOW 17:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 7.5|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.11 100| 0| 0 140221/0800Z 56 24028KT 30.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 7.7|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.12 100| 0| 0 140221/0900Z 57 25029KT 29.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 9:1| 7.8|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.14 100| 0| 0 140221/1000Z 58 25029KT 27.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 9:1| 7.9|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.15 100| 0| 0 140221/1100Z 59 25028KT 25.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 9:1| 7.9|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.16 100| 0| 0 140221/1200Z 60 25028KT 23.1F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 9:1| 7.9|| 0.04|| 0.08|| 1.16 100| 0| 0 ORD 140220/1200Z 36 09010KT 30.3F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.052 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.05 1| 99| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140220/1300Z 37 06008KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.289 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.34 0| 0|100 140220/1400Z 38 04011KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.261 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.60 0| 0|100 140220/1500Z 39 07012KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100 140220/1600Z 40 08011KT 32.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100 140220/1700Z 41 09008KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0| 0 140220/1800Z 42 10007KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140220/1900Z 43 11007KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.72 0| 0|100 140220/2000Z 44 12006KT 33.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.72 0| 0| 0 140220/2100Z 45 12006KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.73 0| 0|100 140220/2200Z 46 12008KT 34.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.74 0| 0|100 140220/2300Z 47 14010KT 38.7F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.76 0| 0|100 140221/0000Z 48 18016KT 44.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.79 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140221/0100Z 49 22019KT 41.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.81 0| 0|100 140221/0200Z 50 23020KT 35.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.82 0| 0|100 140221/0300Z 51 23021KT 32.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.82 0| 0|100 140221/0400Z 52 23021KT 32.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 10:1| 0.1|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0 140221/0500Z 53 24022KT 32.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 140221/0600Z 54 24023KT 31.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 0.2|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140221/0700Z 55 24024KT 31.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 0.3|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.86 100| 0| 0 140221/0800Z 56 24023KT 31.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 9:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.86 100| 0| 0 140221/0900Z 57 24022KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.87 100| 0| 0

Can i make it 3/3 for us? The other 2 threads I made it shifted SE and got a lot of us snow.