Money

21z SREF DBQ: QPF Mean: 0.67 Highest: 1.89 Lowest: 0.16 Snow: Mean: 2.26 Highest: 4.32 Lowest: 0.19 MSN: QPF: Mean: 0.69 Highest: 1.73 Lowest: 0.29 Snow: Mean: 2.61 Highest: 6.70 Lowest: 0.79 MKE: QPF: Mean: 0.65 Highest: 1.24 Lowest: 0.35 Snow: Mean: 2.27 Highest: 6.09 Lowest: 0.00 ORD: QPF Mean: 0.80 Highest: 1.56 Lowest: 0.31 Snow Mean: 1.38 Highest: 3.41 Lowest: 0.00 OSH: QPF Mean: 0.65 Highest: 1.59 Lowest: 0.24 Snow Mean: 3.60 Highest: 8.88 Lowest: 1.09

NAM looks like an ice/snow event here looking at the precip types

Ends up 983.5 over GB at HR 72.

It's also colder than 18z though and shows 2-4 in Milwaukee with the initial slug of precip.

yeah, by HR 60 it's a bit west. Pretty strong too.

995.2 in OK at hr 54. This looks farther southeast than 18z.

Early guess is NAM comes SE. Out to HR 48.

The wind really cut down on ratios for the first half of the event.

Yeah GFS as is, probably is a 2-4 snowfall here with the heaviest just NW. 15z SREF has a mean of 5+ in Oshkosh and 2+ in MKE. Just need a small shift SE or a maybe a degree/two colder.

Sorry, but Chicago needs to break the record.

Just looked on the noaa page and it has this 0650 PM SNOW FOND DU LAC 43.78N 88.45W 02/17/2014 M4.9 INCH FOND DU LAC WI PUBLIC STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY. So yeah, going to call it officially 5 for this storm.

Picked up another 1/2 inch or so. Total of probably 5 ish. Not bad considering the way it looked in the morning.

Yeah, could be a trend, or it could be just a typical 18z off run. We'll see in the next couple hours with the 0z runs. I do know that this past system was supposed to give Chicago rain etc, and we all know what happened. Now most of the same areas has an additional 4-6 inches of snowcover, which could help keep the temps even a bit colder. We'll see.

True, but trend this winter has been to trend storms farther SE as we get closer.

Picked up 4-4.5 here or so.

Should have 50 by Thursday/Friday

18z GFS ensembles continues the look of a more SE track with not one ensemble having a low farther NW than the op. Most, if not all would be majority snow in S. WI 18z ensembles: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_18z/f78.html

geos, you are trying way too hard. It's going to get cold again. We'll just have to deal with it hopefully for another 2 weeks.

NAM bufkit for here: 140220/1900Z 73 11018KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 140220/2000Z 74 11020KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100 140220/2100Z 75 12021KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0|100 140220/2200Z 76 14014KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 0| 0|100 140220/2300Z 77 14006KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 0| 0|100 140221/0000Z 78 13004KT 32.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140221/0100Z 79 21004KT 32.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0|100 140221/0200Z 80 25011KT 31.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.34 0| 0|100 140221/0300Z 81 27020KT 31.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 140221/0400Z 82 27024KT 31.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.37 100| 0| 0 140221/0500Z 83 27027KT 31.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 140221/0600Z 84 27028KT 30.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 Nothing like 32.8 and rain lol

SREF plumes with 5-6+ in OSH and GRB. 2+ in MKE

GB AFD MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW MOVG THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE S/W TROF LIFTING NE OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WOULD NOT EFFECTIVELY PHASE...WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND PCPN SPLITTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF NE WI. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE...AND ARE PHASING THE SYSTEMS ON THU/THU NGT...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC LOW THAT TRACKS FARTHER NW (THROUGH SE WI/LAKE MICHIGAN AREA) THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF WAS FORECASTING SEVERAL DAYS AGO...SO THE TREND IS NOT TOO SURPRISING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS...ITS EXPECTED THAT SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDS NGT/EARLY THU MORNING...WITH A WEAK WARM LAYER FROM 925-850 MB SUPPORTING A WINTRY MIX OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH...WHERE SNOW SHOULD PREVAIL. AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE REGION ON THU/THU EVG...IT WILL PULL WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE INTO ABOUT THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA...LEADING TO MIXED RAIN/SNOW...OR POSSIBLY ALL RAIN. FARTHER NW...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NW OF A LINE FROM ISW-IMT. THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD LIFT OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL/FAR NE WI THURSDAY EVENING. OF COURSE...ALL OF THIS DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY THAT MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE WITH PHASING SYSTEMS. MKE AFD FOR WED NT THROUGH THU NT...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW DEPICTED ON THE MODELS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH ERN WI AS A POLAR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD MIXED PCPN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE WED NT WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...SOME SNOW POSSIBLY IN THE NRN CWA. ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS MIXED PCPN AND ICE ACCUM WILL LINGER INTO THU AM. TEMPS WILL THEN BECOME WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WEST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT UNLESS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER EAST. BRISK WINDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOR THU NT INTO FRI AM.

18z GFS is colder and a bit farther SE than 12z. Even brings a couple inches here (2-4)

Pretty mixed bag on the 12z GFS ensembles. Several with a storm south of Chicago, others looking like the euro/nam etc http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/f84.html

LSE buried on the 18z nam. 8-10+ Takes a 985 L pretty much right over head here like the euro

Storm ended up going a lot faster than models projected, hence the low snow totals. MKE was right a few days ago lol