Hawkeye

We are actually getting some decent light to moderate rain this morning as the wave that clobbered Missouri is lifting far enough nw to get us under the rain shield.

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Another wet day! Love it!   .80"  this pm and still raining.  Weekend total  now 1.7"  and incredibly  now at 7 inches in April!  And there hasnt been a extreme  amount of run off or gully washers.  Soaking  in and saturated!

Meanwhile, I have received only 2.87" in April, still well below the 3.6" average.  One county west of Cedar Rapids some locations have received less than 1.5" in April.

Bust city here again.  I got about a tenth this evening, which puts my 2-wave weekend total at 0.25"... a very far cry from the 2-3+ inches the models were spitting out for days.

The latest HRRR clobbers Missouri and Illinois while screwing Iowa.

Update:  The 3kNAM is doing the same thing

Yesterday I woke up to a temp in the 40s with a dewpoint in the low 30s.  Today it is in the 60s with a dewpoint in the low 60s.

Tonight is still uncertain for us.  Models are predicting anything from a half inch to three inches of rain.  I'm afraid the ones showing storms popping near to just south of us and then propagating southeastward will be correct.  That would dump inches of rain over southeast Iowa down into Missouri, but much less here.

The HRRR nailed the wave 1 dud for Cedar Rapids, and now it's doing the same thing for wave 2.

It appears more tornadoes are popping out of several cells south of Des Moines

I got 0.08" of rain this morning.  Models were so bad.  Maybe I can get a bit more today.  The Saturday night wave had better deliver.

Unfortunately, it appears the dry models are going to be correct for us this morning.  An area of rain is trying to lift up into my area, but it is really drying out.  You just can't expect any heavy rain when the freakin dewpoint is in the 30s.  I'm tired of this crap.  To get heavy rain, we need the dewpoint to be in the 60s and 70s.

The Euro is one of the models that has really dried out wave #1 for Iowa.

For days I've been excited about storms and heavy rain this weekend.  However, as is the case all too often, models are backing off as we approach the start.  Some models are drying out my area big time.  Instead of 2+ inches, there are now models showing less than a half inch Friday and less than an inch total all weekend.  Regarding the first wave on Friday, it has slowed and it doesn't arrive here until midday Friday when the storms are crapping out.  The second wave is still very up in the air.  A few models insist there will be a plume of heavy rain from Missouri up through southeast Iowa.  Other models (Euro) say the heavy rain will be in northern Iowa into Minnesota, with no heavy band from Missouri into southeast Iowa.  Once again, I am having to greatly lower my expectation and just hope we can get an inch out of this entire weekend.  

On top of the BS this weekend, there is suddenly a trend on some models toward early May being much less warm and active compared to what they've been advertising in recent days.

Euro ensemble avg next 15 days.  That is what I want.... warm, stormy, wet.

I covered several budding plants with multiple layers of protection.  The NWS lowered our low to 26º, but, fortunately, here in town we only dropped to about 30º, similar to the previous night.  Yesterday sucked, barely making it over 40º.  I'm ready for this stuff to be over.

I got 0.36" of rain today, pretty close to the middle of the model range.  The grass is very lush and green.  Cedar Rapids has been downgraded from "extreme" drought to "severe".

The second line looked promising for a while, but it was very thin and raced through in only a couple minutes.  My event rain total is 0.67".  I'll take it, but it's much less than what models were spitting out a few days ago.

I got lucky.  A heavy cell passed just west of Cedar Rapids and another heavy cell moved up through the middle of Cedar Rapids.  I just barely got caught inside the western edge of the eastern cell.  There was barely any thunder, but it was gusty and the rain was very heavy.  I finished with 0.57".  Only one mile to my west only 0.12" fell.

I wasn't expecting much from the secondary line, but it is actually really beefing up.  There is a nasty cell near Ottumwa.

Radar shows a hole in the line moving into Cedar Rapids.  It'll probably be June before we get a decent thunderstorm.  

The dewpoint has risen nearly 30º since sunrise, but thick clouds have prevented any insolation across Iowa.

Radar sure doesn't look like a severe event.  It's just a wide band of showers with embedded brief downpours.

As expected, overnight was a total bust.  Strong east wind is pumping very dry air into eastern Iowa.  On top of that, the entire area is covered in thick clouds.  At this point I'm hoping we can get a half inch of rain.  

I am becoming increasingly concerned about my rain total.  A couple days ago, the GFS and Euro were suggesting up to four rounds of storms and a rain total possibly 2+".  Tonight's storms are gone and the Tuesday night rain is mostly gone.  Models are down to only one main round Tuesday afternoon, with maybe a thin second line.  There may be spots around here that get missed by the stronger cells and end up with only a half inch of rain.

It's looking good for storms and heavy rain across Iowa Monday night/Tuesday.  I'm very much looking forward to this because I really haven't had a thunderstorm yet this year.

A significant portion of the totality path through the US got to see the eclipse.  At this time of year there could easily have been thick clouds from Texas to New England.

Unfortunately, there have been no total solar eclipses near my area in my lifetime, and there won't be any through the rest of this century.  I just found a set of maps for total solar eclipses next century.  In October of 2153, downtown Cedar Rapids will be exactly in the center of totality.