Hawkeye

The models have become more progressive next week.  Unfortunately, that means the front moves through Iowa before the moisture can get up here.  ARGH!  

It's 56º in Cedar Rapids, well above the expected high.

Yikes!

Recent runs of the GFS have been teasing a blow torch at the end of the month, with 70s into Iowa (and lows in the 60s).  As good as that would feel, that kind of early warmth, on top of the already-mild winter, would wake up plants way WAY too early.  My daffodils always pop up just a bit, regardless of how cold winter is, but this year they are up a few inches because of the consistent mild weather.  I would greatly prefer that we stay in the 40s and 50s.

Despite having one of the snowiest weeks on record, back in January, I would still finish below average for the season if we don't get any additional snow.

I got 0.3" of snow early this morning.  That will likely be all we get in February.

There is a mean-looking band of snow moving through MSP.

It will be a bit chilly this weekend, but the Euro brings back 50s again for much of next week, with 60º possible Wednesday.  This month has been crazy mild.  I'm almost ready for thunderstorm season.

I just heard a rumble of thunder.  Unfortunately, the storms popped up just barely northeast of me.  We are up to 65º.

It's nice to see models beginning to tease a snow system next weekend into early the following week.

We made it to 56º a couple days ago, but yesterday and today thick, low stratus killed our temp.  We were stuck in the mid 30s yesterday and the temp has gone nowhere again today... both days well before the forecast.

Up to a few days ago models were retrograding a big northeast US upper low and pulling in some colder air from that direction, but they've dropped that idea.  Now the latest model runs are trending from mild to blow torch.  The Euro has us getting into the 50s several times over the next ten days.

We are down to about 2 inches of snow on the ground... with much deeper piles, of course.  The next week should take care of it.

1 hour ago, chescowxman said:

With our 0.93" of rain so far today we are up to 7.36" of rain for the month.

That is a LOT of precip.  We've had a top-ten wet January, but it's not even half of what you've received.

That is a pretty ugly, horribly blocked-up pattern the op Euro is showing in early February.  A massive ridge over the northern US and southern Canada will never allow any precip to get up here.

0.57" of rain here from this latest system.  My January total is 3.25", which is apparently the wettest January in several decades.  A few inches doesn't sound like much, but January tends to be cold and dry here so it's difficult to get a lot of precip.

Our snow is vanishing pretty quickly.  I'm guessing 2/3 of our snow is gone.  A few bare spots are showing.  The grass is as green as it will ever be in late January, thanks to all the snow insulating the unfrozen ground during the cold outbreak.

This was a big ol' dud.  For days models suggested some decent snow this morning, but it just didn't happen.  It appears there is some snow from near Dubuque to southern Wisconsin where the precip is heavier.

The snow did not last long.  Instead of expanding throughout the precip shield like models predicted, radar shows it shrinking as the temp gradually warms.

We have finally switched to snow after getting a glaze of ice this morning.  Models are not too bullish on accumulation... maybe an inch.

The latest GFS and Euro both show a stretch of 50s, or even 60s, across the region in early February.

Models have most or all of our snow melting by Groundhog Day.

The Euro had been pretty weak, but it is trending toward a few inches of slop.

I finished with 1.8", a bit disappointing.  We were toward the north edge of the snow, where the flake quality was poor, so the ratio was only 11 to 1 despite the very cold atmosphere.  The best snow definitely shifted south.  

It appears Des Moines got bulls-eyed yet again.  There is a report of 4.5" near the city.

Radar shows most of the snow sagging into southern Iowa.  The latest HRRR/RAP have dropped Cedar Rapids down to only 1-2".