gabel23

Thundersnow is a guarantee in multiple locations on the GFS tonight. What a storm that would be! And it's strengthening now? Can you imagine what will happen if this trend keeps up?

The heaviest band has shifted about 50 miles southeast.....I'm left with 7" and not the 12+ I was seeing earlier. I would rather this stay like this and then shift back as event nears........just give me 10+ please!!

If this goes southeast I'll probably lose my s**t

I would say your money, the Lincoln/Omaha corridor should be golden, even with a southeast shift. My area on south and west on the other hand would greatly be affected. I really don't know what to believe, last time we were in this situation the EURO and GFS were so consistent and the GFS won out. Hoping for the same results this time.....we are so due. Also, historically speaking, it seems our major snow storms always come after a pretty good warm up. Like what has been happening this week.....time will tell. One thing is certain, it seems like we have been tracking this thing for a flipping month!!! We are still 4 DAYS AWAY!!!!!! Crazy. 

wow surprised it isn't a bit further northwest....

I'm thinking the Euro is playing catch-up, by tonight or tomorrow hopefully it starts showing what the GFS has been showing for like the past 4 days......

Zoomed in

That still looks like a tight gradient for snow....I'll take the GFS please.......

Looks like track is just south of KC to near Quincy to Traverse City, MI in 24 hours

That is a perfect track for Eastern Neb/Western Iowa. I would like to see the snowfall maps! 

Thank you King Euro!! Now lets hold our positions, the Canadian can hopefully get thrown out too or come join the GFS and Euro. 

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444                                            00Z JAN28                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.1    -8.0    1016      65      45    0.00     544     531    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -3.1    -9.5    1016      68      49    0.01     543     530    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.1   -10.5    1015      73      73    0.05     538     526    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -6.6   -12.3    1014      67      94    0.14     533     523    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -6.8   -11.5    1014      68      73    0.06     533     521    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -7.7   -10.3    1016      70      38    0.00     534     521    

OMG I hate the Euro, it looks like the deformation zone is extremely narrow. Hoping Euro is out to lunch on this one. 

NE is solid if you are east of there you should worry as that isn't set in stone yet.

Nothing is solid until the snow is flying!! Been burned too many times, I'll feel good when watches and warnings are out......I'm loving the consistency though, hoping euro follows suit.

Have you guys out in NE melted a lot of the snow from today's temps???  Looks like temps will avg in the mid/upper 40's over the next few days.  Hope your snow cover can hold on to keep the streak going!

Still around 2-3" of snow on the ground, will be interesting to see if the ditches and drifts survive the melt. We have some drifts that are 3-5' and ditches are full of snow.

Thru 132 hr:

 

Gabel and Clint this is a huge hit for you guys!

Best run yet for me, I'll take it!! Nice little lollipop 16+ right over head, if only we could lock it in....

Everyone keeps talking about this storm going further southeast, well Sioux Falls thinks if anything the track may be further north than anything else....

STILL TRACKING A LARGE UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY FROM

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRIMARY FOCUS PERIODS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...GEM
GLOBAL AND ECMWF HAVE ALL NOW COALESCED AROUND A SOLUTION WHICH
TAKES A BULK OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WITH SNOW...LESS SO IN
OUR NORTHWEST AROUND HURON AND CHAMBERLAIN. THERE IS SO MANY
QUESTION MARKS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WILL THE UPPER
AND SURFACE LOWS TRACK FURTHER NORTH AS THE MODEL BIAS USUALLY HAS A
TENDENCY TO TRACK THE LOW TOO MUCH EASTWARD INTO THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. THIS HAPPENED IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL
GET IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK. IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WE HAD
UNSTABLE EVENTS ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. LASTLY...WILL A SOLID
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND OHIO
VALLEY TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH COULD SHUTOFF OUR WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE. IN MARCH OR EARLY APRIL...THIS LAST
SITUATION WOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM WITH MORE OVERALL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
AREAS COULD RECEIVE A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WITH ITS CURRENT TRACK.
IF ANYTHING...BELIEVE THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS IT MOVES UP AND OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MORE
THAN WHAT IS BEING SHOWN RIGHT NOW. THEREFORE THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
MAKE THE SNOWFALL HEAVIER FOR A BIGGER PART OF OUR AREA. ONE THING
IS MORE CERTAIN...SURE GETS COLDER AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
ONLY TEENS AND LOWER 20S NEXT WEDNESDAY.

Is this the Flowers map?

 

I really don't like that map, please throw it out! Gives me nothing, has to be Jim Flowers because it looks like today's EURO run. 

Will be interesting to see how much this moves as we near the event. 

Have to expect this though considering we are a long ways out yet. I just hope it swings back for us as the event nears. 

 

wrong map, getting a new one

 

I don't like that map, way sharper of a cut off on snow totals. I'm getting on the edge of the deformation band, hoping the GFS wins out again....

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444                                            12Z JAN27                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK     TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -3.2    -8.1    1017      67      73    0.00     544     531    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.9    -9.2    1013      71      88    0.06     538     528    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -7.8            1009      75      92    0.23     531     524    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -8.3   -11.7    1009      76      99    0.16     527     520    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.9   -12.6    1011      71      86    0.03     527     519    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.0   -12.3    1014      68      75    0.00     529     518    

Yikes that's way less QPF, should have good ratios with temps that low but man no more shifting please! 

cuts well north of Chicago 

What's it look like for us? I can't see your maps! 

So, GFS went SE quite a bit, GGEM went NW quite a bit and now are pretty much in agreement. 

Which means if the EURO holds true than every major long range model is pretty much in agreement with 7 days to go.......

Pretty much.

 

Wound up system, plus strong gulf moisture, plus no snowpack at all up until Wisconsin/Iowa just screams NW trend to me as we get closer to the event at least until it feels effects from that high. 

We have a 5-8" snow pack in parts of Eastern/Southeast Nebraska, although I would expect most if not all of the snow to be gone by this weekend. The snow pack has a weird glaze to it around my area, almost like it's completely crusted over/frozen. I'm hoping that can lncrease the albedo affect, I want to keep some of my snowpack! 

I just need to stop watching the models because I have been sitting in the sweet spot for way to long. I just hope I don't get really disappointed.....been a while since I have seen a monster. 

Tom would

I'm thinking a pretty good swath of 12+ setting up shop somewhere through Central Nebraska and on east......

Anybody have the snow totals from the EURO? 

congrats 

OMG That's a lot of snow!!!!! Too bad it's still 7 days away.........

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            12Z JAN26                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -2.8    1004      91      95    0.16     544     541    

mix bag?  (850 looks ok,k but the THK is above the 540

 

How about KOLU?? Thanks. 

I'm just not liking the fact we are sitting in a sweet spot with a week to go. Although I'm fine with the GFS shifting to the southeast because that would put me further into the sweet spot for snow. Just no major shift please!!!