Clinton

Good morning, getting ready for my 2nd accumulating snow of the season.  2 to 4 inches expected for my area, what a different Nov from the last few.  This has been one of the coldest and wettest Nov that I can remember.

The wind is brutal!  On our way down to a record low of 14, old record 19.

Gosh, I don't know where to begin this morning as I'm both excited to see the snow falling, as well as, the trends in the models for Week 2.  With the landscape transformed this morning, Winter has arrived here in Chicago.  Everything is coated in snow and the remaining leaves on some of the trees are falling off quickly.  By the end of this weekend, I'd imagine almost all the trees will be bare from the strong winds later today and I could finally perform my last rake of the season later next week.

Tree damage was a problem here, it was the only negative to a beautiful snow.

Does anyone know how much KC got from this system??  Or parts of N MO???  @ Clinton, where ya at bud?

 

This will be an interesting system in future cycles....

KC got a dusting to 2 inches.  I got 4 inches at my house, I am about an hour east of KC.  It was my biggest snow in 3 years!  If we could have been 2 or 3 degrees colder it would have really piled up.  I'm excited for this system in future cycles.

^{Just had my first flakes of the season, about 2 inches is forecasted here.  Hope its a sign of a active winter.}

You go nam!

This has to be a good sign for winter if we can get an accumulating snow in early Nov. in the KC area.

That’s the next storm which has been showing up on the models today following this storm. What a freakin’ pattern!

If that storm pans out, it would be more snow than I have had the last 2 years combined.

Does anyone if you have to get a subscription to weather2020 now, nothing shows up on the comment discussions anymore this past week?

No it's free

OAX is riding the Euro for tomorrow's wave. I think we need to wait for afternoon to see an advisory as Fobert has never issued a headline. I know this is the wrong thread, but as always he has a Northeast Nebraska boner for Saturday's wave.

The NAM has been almost spot on for me down here, which has me worried because it shows nearly a half in of ice tonight and tomorrow.  Also it continues to trend cooler for Friday.  Hope you get some snow as the NAM suggest you will.

How much ice did you have accumulate today?

Just under a 1/2in.  I am about an hour SE of KC

00z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018022100/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Some ice potential across parts of KS/MO/IA...into S WI...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018022100/060/zr_acc.us_mw.png

Can't take on much more ice down here in KC.  That would cause widespread damage with the ice we got today.

I am about an hour SE of KC, I think it was 2011 we got 26 inches in early Feb.

Just looked at the 12z GFS run for next weekend and boy that could be one heck of a major winter storm.

Hope it's wrong about the ice that would be really bad!

If there's anyone who gets screwed more than us, it's KC. If we get this at their expense, then yay!

I will fight you for this snow lol.  We haven't had squat this year.

As light snow continues to gently fall this morning, with calm winds, it looks like a snow globe out there.  I haven't seen my neighborhood look like this since the '13-'14 winter when we had abundant fluffy powder.   My snow depth is a little over 4" (4.2" to be exact).

Please send some to KC we cant buy a good snow lol.

I would like to see the models come in a little stronger and more widespread today.  The Canadian model was the only model that got it right for me yesterday as I picked up 1.5in.

 

Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long

 

20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.png

 

Our snow drought has to end soon right?

This first initial wave on Mon/Tue seems to be associated with the main SLP that comes up from the TX Panhandle later Tue and tracks NE towards the S MW/OV by Wed.  Shall we edit this title to include both??  Prob will keep things cleaner.

Yes please!

Iowa/Northeast NE crushed on Monday. Northeast KS/KCMO crushed on Tuesday. Poor southeast Nebraska in between both.

Seems to good to be true for me in KC area!

Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?

I think that could be it, I have also noticed when the ridge is strong out west the models have a hard time as well.

All these waves are going to fun to track in the coming days. LRC lines up well from back around Dec 21st - Dec 29th, none of them were significant snows but we picked a few inches out of all them around Christmas time. Model watching has been crazy lately. Hope everyone can score some snow out of these.

If I remember right it seems the models really had a hard time in Dec settling on a solution.  I wonder what part of this pattern gives them so much trouble?

EURO is further east at hr.76 looks like the NAM.

Maybe..maybe not. Honestly it had what happened to last weeks storm days before the rest of the models caught on. I know its the red headed step child of the models but maybe it deserves a little more credit. Just something to keep an eye on.

A lot of folks would be caught off guard in my neck of the woods, local mets. aren't even mentioning snow as a possibility.

Is there an opportunity for a Ground Hog's day storm somewhere across our sub forum???  I know its wayyy out there in fantasy land.  You don't need to remind me, but I love challenges and the 3rd storm, in a series of larger scale systems (IMO) may be developing across the SW/4 corners region to open up Feb.  Why you may ask???  Remember the Halloween system coming out of the SW that brought the first flakes in NE/KS???  This pattern is cycling and the 30-day harmonic is also cycling.  00z GEFS are "hinting" at this opportunity way out there in the future but don't be surprised if this does in fact develop.

 

Using the LRC this system should be stronger than the system on the 26th.  The Halloween version of this brought the first snowflakes of the season to KC and with the snowpack I expect from this and the previous system I think the coldest air many of us have seen for the season could follow.

We will have our chances after this system moves on.  This season we have seen a wide variety of storm tracks and unfortunately as the Jan pullback comes, the track shifts north, but don't be discouraged as I'm pretty confident about seeing 1 or 2 more systems tracking nearby to close out the month.  

There should be a system around the 26th that tracks across southern Missouri and central Illinois that should deliver.