Maxim

yeah, NYC was reporting -SN with the last obs. Looks like some 20 dbz bands are moving in too.

DCA has always had issues with snow measurements, no surprises there.

For you, maybe. Completely whiffs the rest of us though, and is pretty weak in terms of moisture and QPF.

nah, they're only gonna get light accumulations according to Iowa2015.

Yeah, we're not going to get 5"...

the GFS really hasn't been that much better tbh.

lol

this thing won't cut anywhere near Chicago if you have a trough digging like this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012000/gfs_z500a_us_46.png

guess we should toss this then http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

it's going to shift well west, just watch the trends.

Indeed, it's a bad model. Spits out random blotches of colder surface temps/850 mb temps that wouldn't make any sense given the overall set-up that it's depicting. The ensembles are much better IMO.

lol long-range gfs is a torch

pretty bold call there

meh, this month has been kinda up and down like a rollercoaster. I guess you could call it a transition month though. It's been colder than expected, which is why I'm not holding my breath on February being colder. We'll see though.

lol disaster

GFS keeps everything suppressed. Looking good for OKwx2k4 though.

lol, when did I say it wouldn't happen? Pretty much every winter has featured subzero temps except for 2011-2012 maybe. Also, any normal human being wouldn't enjoy several days of "below 0 weather and bitter cold wind chills". Also another IMBY post... many other places are well behind their seasonal average.

Can we just fastforward to April already?

it's because of el nino

weaker version of the pattern we saw in December.

lol other weather forums have banter/complaint threads too, it's not made for "trolls". I just found it strange how nobody was posting on it given how this winter has played out so far.

I personally think Jan will end up being the coldest month this winter season. I see no reason why the current pattern should persist all throughout Feb, unless you're banking on the PV to be completely dislodged, or the Arctic to keep torching like it has been (both highly unlikely). So pretty confident on a torchy Feb/March at the moment.

the 21-23 period will probably be our best (and possibly last) chance to see legit, synoptic snow from an actual storm system. Decent agreement on a drastic pattern shift more familiar to what we saw in December by late month, though.

bet the next run floods pacific air at hour 324... terribly inconsistent model.

Why would I have bothered posting on the last clipper? I don't care for nuisance 3 inch snow events. Go big or go home.