jaster220

I'll be fine with my 2-ish total, no need to make it all up at once - no bueno

So beautiful out there! Would love to hit those slopes, if only once..

Well my friend, on that one I think you'll be changing that call Ofc, at your latitude, spring just naturally comes much earlier than up here in MI. So, you'll need to be more specific where exactly you mean? I would think your place does best with an earlier season more aligned with the lack of sun angle thus MET winter months, whereas I consider the peak time for traditional solid winters here to be from the winter solstice to mid-March. Very much what occurred in 2013-14, though some decent snows were had starting about Dec 10th. I think with an 81-82 analog in play up here, we could be looking at winter conditions extending well past the end of Feb. We just had enjoyed our warmest April on record, so we're due a pay-back, lol Welcome to you possum! So, didn't that mega-bliz start in TN a couple Jan's back? Did it not get your place? The "Dark Knight Storm" or whatever it was called social media (not TWC's name)

Even our core winter months (J,F) in SMI feature rain events, so a mix of snow events with wet events is most likely. Even in historic winters, SMI sees some rainers - that big one just a few days after the Jan 2014 PV Bliz still torches my tail feathers. WORST timing I've ever experienced. Only redeeming fact was that it wasn't a 60F and rain like last Dec 26th, so the deep snow pack survived surprisingly well, forming a moisture-dense foundation for the rest of the historic winter. Here's Albion's daily log (closest daily recording for Marshall area - 12 miles east) showing how just a few days after the bliz brought an awesome snow depth of 18+ inches and high temp of MINUS 1º !, it flipped to two days of 40F and rain, knocking 10" off that beautiful deep snow cover: It's rare for this non-LES region to get that kind of snow depth, so I was quite upset to see it take a hit so hard so fast! But, I'd never experienced a winter like 2013-14 in SMI, only during my yrs in NMI snowbelt. I didn't even think it was possible to have a winter where depths of 15+ OTG would happen for many days during (3) months! So, when we actually got back to that 18+ depth on the 27th, and then BEAT that by nearly half a foot in Feb, ofc that took a lot of the sting out of the early January melt-down

Hope Tom likes crunching numbers and sorting data! Gonna have his hands full sorting out the winner, he is..

Could some places in our sub look like this next month?? AAM wants to help!

CFSv2 showing a wet December: And a chilly MET winter:

Nice to see the EURO with some real moisture over my way..

SOI showing signs of volatility going into the month. Maybe those in the know can comment on potential impacts?

Been a string of warm Oct's. We're kinda due for a break.

This can be a theme all winter - you laughing while I stack flakes. :-P

Fun facts on that wild winter: What I liked was the dynamic systems as I'm a total windy storms geek.. Almost impossible for me to have anything but fun with a 983 mb SLP anywhere in MI, but when they bisect the LP, we usually get some wicked LES due to the "low baro factor". (During this storm, I was actually trying to make it up north for skiing but had to turn back. One of only 3 times in my life that I've been in visibility so bad, you couldn't see beyond your front bumper).

Hahaha, nothing if not a timely model snag! Sure, it's the overly amped GFS, but how ironic we had that legit 1st snowfall/storm on Oct 19th of '89. Not sure how far models were going out to back then, but the avg Joe non-NWS employee didn't see a snowstorm coming for central Indiana in the middle of Oct! And THIS - looks like 11-17-13, just earlier in the autumn thus further north. That was also a snow-less wonder (considering it was mid-Nov already).

Wait! Wait! We still need an autumn ovva here.. This would be some kind of historic period if we crashed into winter over the next 6 wks. I mean, '89 came on early like that but not on the heals of record smashing heat in Sept. Was quite the opposite iirc. Cold-cold-cold was the rule of thumb that autumn.

Looks like they're a little more bullish on a Nina (as of 9-14):

..and I normally shy away from these contests even though I love snow and winter. Nonetheless, gonna take a stab: Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm) Minneapolis: Oct 24 (6:32 am) Omaha: Nov 7 (6:24 am) Des Moines: Nov 8 (6:10 pm) Oklahoma City: Dec 4th (3:33 am) Detroit: Nov 23 (3:47 am) Milwaukee: Nov 14 (11:46 pm) Oh, and with these being large metro areas, snow could fall in some parts and miss others. Might want to clarify the exact site locations as well as what "officially" qualifies as "first flakes". NWS recording of a "T", or social media photo posted of a car top duster, etc..

You nailed it! Heck, whilst others on my street are busy putting up Holloweenie decorations, I'm thinking about at least hanging my Christmas lights (not lighting them, lol). Normally wait til right after T-day, but in 2011 we had that heavy snowstorm on the 29th and I had to move snow to put out my decorations. It's rare here, but I remember the added risk of roof level work when there's snow and ice everywhere - not good. If the truth were known, me and ladders don't get along too well as it is

Yeah, in that winter vid I posted, it's noted that the CFSv2 is the model really dragging the avg down on the NMME graphs, but it may just be schooling the other models!

So sad, and just learned this morning that a regular poster on our local SMI site lost his wife unexpectedly. They just had their 3rd child a few months ago. He was in the Auburn Hills area a bit west of Niko's place. Between this and the shootings and the hurricanes - just too much tragedy lately! Gonna cry "uncle" if this doesn't stop. Remember to be thankful if things are good in your little world, and lend a hand in whatever way you can to others in a time of need.

Well, from a strictly mby focus that's great news. But referring back to WxDecoded's outlook having 81-82 as an analog as well, I'm going to say that my excitement is even greater for that season. If for no other reason, because it was much more share the wealth awesomeness. Remember, that's the season that featured even deeper snow in mby, as well as the season of MSP's back-to-back 18" storms (2 in 3 days!). NMI scored Dec and all of Jan with blizzards and incredible snow depths over the entire region, not just a few counties. The action then shifted south for SMI to score from the last day of Jan (bliz of '82) right through April's final hit. It was also Illinois' 2nd most severe winter of all time, tying the vaulted '77-78 for number of severe storms as outlined in this historical study: ..just sayin'

Yes it was! And the skies over here were full of awesome clouds you only see in October around here. Deep blue, crisp clear low-humidity and several layers of mixed cloud types. Fantastic.

Actually Tom, I think I got that wrong. I'm pretty sure it's the town of Cedar in Leelanau Cnty that holds an annual Polish festival. And it's just a few miles east of MC.

Welcomed my first Oct morning with 35 degs. House got a tad chilly. This was 5 degs colder than my forecast had been showing until NWS lowered it late yesterday. Cold is over-performing, or the models are playing catch-up..

"September ended up largely above normal for our members....wetter farther west you go..." Likely we see those temps opposite that mid-winter is my gut feeling.

Wow! You were lucky to live there in recent times when they had so many historic storms! I'm still waiting to experience a legit Cat-5 storm as an adult..