Utrex

Looking likely for a thunderstorm outbreak this evening - Friday morning over coastal, valley, and mountain regions over Central California and the bottom half of Northern California... The lowest parts of the valley are likely not going to produce significant fire threats, though the valley sides and mountains could receive some intense fires tonight. On August 2014, a similar setup occured with moisture depicted to turn into widespread elevated dry thunderstorms, however the moisture was nowhere near as much as the models depicted, thus no thunderstorms developed. Between now and tonight, anything could happen. Let's hope more moisture doesn't get advected, since that would only spawn more convection.

The EMCWF and GFS both indicate an increase in Phase 1 MJO activity. The MJO pulse should be situated over Africa/Western Africa. In addition, this may cause westerlies to develop over the Central Pacific through the Galapagos... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

I did see some very impressive lightning bolts/flashes at night. We had a cell form right next to where I am giving us an amazing lightning display but as it began to pass it dissipated and produced a shower. The raindrops that came from the dissipating cell were very large.

Turns out showers/thunderstorms in the Sierras can spillover down into CenCal and NorCal foothills/valleys, according to the NAM and HRRR tonight from around 9 pm to 3 am.

Rare thunderstorm event possible here in Sacramento Monday-Tuesday. Pretty rare for an event, but after all this Summer has been wetter than usual... I wonder why *eh ehm El Nino*.

Only thing the El Niño needs to live right now are some good Westerly Wind Bursts. If you've noticed by now, the lack of WWBs is really choking the El Niño. Of course, the MJO will certainly act up. Do not forget tropical cyclones developing in the future. KWs ahead in time to consider as well.

I'm confused: Does not this MJO pulse signal a possible Kelvin Wave in the near future?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif Well the MJO is predicted to be active and even possibly mark the onset of yet another Kelvin Wave. Hope to see it comes to light (Washington and Oregon must hate us Californians for loving this El Nino).

Very hot this afternoon it was. Tomorrow I expect peak warming... Mid-late 90's... Then cooling Friday.

No need for WWBs as the pool of unusually warm water has surfaced... Water temperatures at Niño regions are 1°C+ and continuing... This wind map shows a weakening in trade winds, with an already westerly flow in the Niño 4 regions... I believe the heating of the surface turns the easterly trades around into westerlies (as can easily be seen from the Niño 4 region. If we can receive just a little westerly wind nudge, the rest of the subsurface warm pool will surface and and dramatically heat up. This is reminiscent of the heating of April 1997... http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.28.2014.gif While the winds are a chicken and egg type of situation (westerlies aid warm water surfacing; warm water surfacing aids westerlies) I still believe we will take step towards an El Niño state. Good for California's good-for-nothing drought.

Wow! Trade winds at Niño 1 and 2 regions are rapidly moving eastward! We have westerlies forming...!

Sorry for not replying... didn't visit Thewxforums after that post... but today there is a definite thunderstorm chance in the Sierras, mainly south of I-80.

Thunderstorms in North Sac. Valley.

Today the trades pretty much died. That's good news for California.

Big time storm due tomorrow Tuesday... In NorCal. Watch out. Alerts to be issued... *hopes it's not a bust*