Bryant

I appreciate it Phil. You've been on the money as well. The call was based off MJO, so if it works out I'll be pretty happy.

Thanks! I'm really hoping this works out for us.

This is the same concept as the LRC. But yet, whenever it's been brought up before, you've never said a word. This seems to be an attempt to take away from those of us who have been talking about the end of the month/beginning of February time frame for quite a while. Obviously nothing is set in stone, but things are looking better.

Hey Utrex, thanks for posting this image. If you don't mind, I'm curious where you got this? As far as I know, this is typically behind a pay site

A very stubborn pattern. Nice to see an Aleutian ridge build in again though. http://i44.tinypic.com/t0205g.png

I wasn't saying he was a troll based on that exact comment, just based on his over all attitude on the forums. When you're first post on the new forum is "Back by popular demand", well that just screams troll in my opinion. Everyone has a right to share their opinon, and I urge everyone to do so on these forums. It's how you go about it which determines how it's perceived.

The SOI research that Brennan has been doing actually shows some really high success rates. Maybe you should do some research yourself on the topic before you bash it, because your conclusions would be the same. Have you ever made an attempt to discover a "signal" that cold may be on the way, or is climo and LR modeling the way to go in your book? You're just a troll anyways so not sure why I bothered

Oooops, that was supposed to say -AAM... going to fix it right now. How soon do you believe the decreasing westerlies will help cool the troposphere/stratosphere and allow the MJO to strengthen?

I definitely shared the same thoughts as far as a hiatus from western troughing. Although the MJO is taking longer to get going than I originally thought, back in the last week of December I shared my reasoning as to why I didn't think we had a shot until the end of the month. Once the MJO reached the West Pacific, it was evident we would have an extended period of riding while an El Nino like regime took hold. Seems as though it will still take a bit to possibly get things going around here, so I'm guessing end of the month will be a bit too soon. If things are going to work out as I'm hoping, I'm thinking the first week or 2 of February... but then again, I've consistently been too quick with my thinking. The AMM will be headed into positive territory shortly, followed by another drop. The correlations associated with the AMM and 500mb heights as well as tropical convection is evident in the following composite I threw together. -AMM supports a -PNA ridge as well convection in the Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent regions. http://i40.tinypic.com/16ifuxl.gif