Esquimalt

Now this looks extremely similar to the december 2017 storm we've been talking about. We need that low shifted 20 or 30 miles south for accumulation here in esquimalt. Showing 5 or 6 inches a few miles from me but only about an inch at my place lol.

That’s 3 times the 12Z for me. I’ll take it!!

Wow the HRDPS is extremely close for me. What are we looking at for the 18Z euro?

Yeah extremely difficult forecast. What are you thinking? I wouldn't be surprised to see 5-10 cm if it took that track, but any further south and it might very well be rain for much of the city. Environment canada has us at 10 degrees on Monday lol

RGEM falling in line with the gfs/euro

Maps or it didn’t happen

When they come out can someone please put the ensemble members low images up? Curious to see where the average track lies relative to the op. Thank you.

I get half as much snow on this one so I think there is a slight move south.

Does anyone have the charts of where the lows go on the GEFS? Thanks!

This run has stuff for everybody!

Yeah that one was infuriating. I think the saanich peninsula got about 5 or 6 inches with that, I just got mixed precipitation.

I score 15 inches from the 18Z GFS! Let the southward trend begin lol (it's happening on the ICON and RGEM to).

Thanks, not looking too good for snow anywhere south of parksville.

Can someone please post the EPS map showing all the low pressure positions for Monday morning when they come out?

It would appear from the ensembles that the problem is indeed that there has been a large northward move on many members. Not good, but still time for a reversal.

Looks like the canadian suite of models (RGEM and I'm assuming GEM) will want to take it even further north into central vancouver island like the icon. Here's hoping they're both off their rockers and the euro and the gfs will hold steady.

Anymore north though and everyone is screwed haha

Holy crap.. Bullseye for Vic! Anyone have snow maps?

Perhaps too far north for everybody on this run lol. Stand by.

Does anyone have the 18Z ECMWF frames for the storm?

Let the southward trend begin. Sigh.

Keep in mind that new gfs was run last night not this morning. So new data could have come in overnight that makes it no longer accurate (if it was ever accurate to begin with lol). But with a total of 14 inches shown on that map over my house, bring it on!!

Does anyone have the EPS snowfall ensemble for Victoria, going out to about 150 hours? Thanks!!

Lol yes. Was too lazy to retype it. So sorry !

Hmmmm. the euro is showing some small accumulations here and about 6 or 8 gfs members are seeing 10+ cm on Monday here (new from overnight). I can see how that would happen, that low would have to track east and just graze us as an anafront type setup. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Any thoughts?