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westcoastexpat

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Everything posted by westcoastexpat

  1. westcoastexpat
    I definitely like the odds for a more southerly solution here. Sucks for me but I know models, particularly the GFS, can underestimate the depth of the cold pool and usher it out too quickly. Especially with how dry this air mass will be inland, I would expect a more southerly moisture plume, which is why a GEM or ECMWF solution would be my bet. Definitely think Portland folks are sitting in a good spot. Of course a tick north would be devastating but sometimes you have to thread the needle to have a chance to get in on the really good stuff. Meanwhile I will make peace with cold and dry up here.
  2. westcoastexpat
    NWS forecaster discussions for western WA and OR
  3. westcoastexpat
  4. westcoastexpat
    Plenty of cold members on the 12Z EPS for the Portland crew
  5. westcoastexpat
    Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean compared to today's.
  6. westcoastexpat
    Still significant uncertainty with the GEM and GFS ensembles. Nearly a 10 degree range at the 850 level with less than 4 days to go.
  7. westcoastexpat
    Snowing here in Vancouver
  8. westcoastexpat
    Latest western WA and OR forecaster discussions from the NWS
  9. westcoastexpat
    The most disappointing part of the 00Z ECMWF is the duration - basically gives us two days of subfreezing before a return above 32. Really curious to see the ensembles when they come out.
  10. westcoastexpat
    Not the ECMWF ...
  11. westcoastexpat
    ECMWF is terrible for snow for Seattle. Basically nothing...
  12. westcoastexpat
    Surface temps struggling to go below 20 on the Euro for Seattle. Definitely a step toward the GFS. Personally not a fan of this run because of the complete lack of snow with the arctic front. But that's a detail to resolve when we get closer to the end of the week.
  13. westcoastexpat
    850 mean does hit -10 briefly on the 00Z
  14. westcoastexpat
    Ensembles still have their place especially when there is still such uncertainty. Like you can see most ensemble members are colder or warmer than the op run/mean. I'd favor the colder cluster of ensemble members on the GFS at this stage.
  15. westcoastexpat
    Here's 00Z so far
  16. westcoastexpat
    Oh shoot just realized I posted the 18Z. Sorry. 00Z still loading
  17. westcoastexpat
    The mean getting down to 20F low is definitely nothing to sneeze at. Could probably pull off some overnight temps into the teens in the area
  18. westcoastexpat
    18Z GFS ensembles
  19. westcoastexpat
    12Z ECMWF ensembles
  20. westcoastexpat
    I personally don't like temps much below freezing. I like heavy snow falling and add in some wind to reduce visibility. Epic!
  21. westcoastexpat
    Definitely lingers after the main blast. As the PV heads eastward, cold air pool definitely stays in place over PNW. Inversion city. Good for people who like it chilly but not for snow lovers. I understand why you'd be happy about that, but most people here just care about big dog snow storms, not dry and cooler than normal.
  22. westcoastexpat
    Western WA NWS update on extended
  23. westcoastexpat
    Updated western OR forecaster discussions from NWS
  24. westcoastexpat
    12Z GEM ensembles
  25. westcoastexpat
    Completely agree. A quick hitter would still be a win for this winter. With a neutral year looking more likely, next winter is certainly on the table. This was the winter I was worried about and even though we'll likely be above average when it's all said and done, the fact that we're getting a good event out of it is really exciting. For Vancouver this is potentially our third A+ winter in a row. December 2021 and 2022 were on par with December 2008.
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