Requiem

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anyways, EPS ensembles for you degen's that don't sleep

These are some of the best ensembles I've ever seen for the metro 

Not sure that big slug of moisture moving through PDX right now is the actual front-- might be the thin line of showers behind it 

Shelton gusting 53 right now-- Rockhouse RAWS in the coast range near Corvallis is gusting 76. I believe the Megler bridge caught a 72 gust earlier this evening.

1 minute ago, CasuallyFoxy said:

70 mph winds on the south Washington coast with that frontal passage just now.

Sustained!?

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z vs 12z Euro for the weekend. It actually seems to drastically reduce the precip down the valley. Not a dramatic reduction for PDX though and the northern extent of the precip hasn't changed too much here either. 

 

I assume partially as a result of the additional suppression-- interesting to see other models come in wetter. Still, this is plenty moisture for any snow event.

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Trended a little north on this run... 

Frozen ducks on the menu 

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Win-win for every body really

I-guess no body really lives south of Salem

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not buying the ZR.  Maybe some, but even a half inch isn't ridiculous.

Will probably be less for you folks up north. I can definitely see at least that in Gorge adjacent areas.

I still need the continued support of the (disgraced and in the midst of a major scandal) king to be completely confident 

I don't think it's gutsy to say that at this venture someone will either get 12+ inches of snow in the I-5 corridor or over an inch of ice 

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

12z vs 00z GEM. A small shift north.

 

Entirely dependent on small low shifts-- we obviously get precip either way, the question becomes how much we "waste" on ZR 

At face value GEM at least up to whatever hour it's updated to on tidbits actually spills cold air into the basin faster 

Pessimistically this run won't change all that much-- that being said, cold air is a noticeable notch to the south at 84 hours so far.

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Now we're talking!

How about PDX temps? I assume about the same 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Previous 24 hours.  Temps are quite cold to JUST south of PDX.

Is it a precip issue this run? Nice to see it gets cold, at least. How does ice accumulation look?

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I really like the fact the ECMWF shows a nice sharp Arctic front with this event.  Those are always so cool.  This one is so sudden that it replaces marine air with Arctic air along with convergence.  A recipe for some snow.

There will be many surprises and overperfomances with this 

Fwiw the 18z euro is slightly faster with the progression of cold air

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

I foresee someone saying "oh my gosh it just keeps coming down!" this weekend...

Someone between Portland and Bellingham for snow most definitely, but I could see valley people saying this for the ZR 

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It has lost all credibility in depicting this particular setup.

Maybe synoptically but why would it have lost credibility as far as surface details go within its dominant 90 hour time frame 

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

18z GEFS got quite a bit snowier for the Seattle area. A little less for Portland.

About the same but I'm surprised it's a bit less considering it was a fair bit colder (particularly w the low level stuff from the basin)

Winter is officially UNcanceled Portland north spread the word because we finally saw a reasonably improved GEFS run 

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Just like one from an online site, I don't have weather bell

It's not out yet for the 18z

Not that it particularly makes a huge difference, but the 18z GEFS is thus far improved