Requiem

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Those are awful changes.

Awful and indicative that the "meet in the middle" solution is some sort of battleground ice wintry mix for the metro. Jan 1998 vibes 

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm shocked by the negativity on here.

I mean can you blame anyone? Sure, maybe this is the models meeting in the middle, but this keeps up Portland is seeing cold rain and nothing else. The valley is out at this point.

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What are people’s opinion on this? Is there time for a turnaround or are we now at a point of no return with these solutions? This was a gut punch. 

Personally after that that awful model suite it's probably over for us, but at the same time I don't recall how potent the February 2021 airmass was here and it seems a meet in the middle scenario here would be a somewhat similar if not less potent event 

Is all of that precip snow or is it a dreaded mix/ice

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6

And of course it culminates with the east coast getting some snowstorm, that's always the endgame 

Calling the Euro the false and illegitimate title of "the king" is now henceforth banned in this respectable establishment 

(this run isn't actually that bad?)

Let's at least see hour 120 first...

Key frames coming up but it doesn't seem like a trainwreck yet 

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

We lost 3/4 models for a day and a half with a few days to spare in 2019. I can see that being a possibility unless sea ice is at 100% in the Gulf of Anadyr. 

Yeah, I recall a pretty epic collapse (including the operational Euro) during both February 2019 and 2021. Climo and all that, yes, but all hope bc is not lost 

I trust the Euro immensely but c'mon, it has to blink

Useless 

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

IBM/Weather.com is all we have got left down here in PDX. Doesn't look like they got the memo from the GFS yet. 

Ice storm preparation time methinks 

The king will be dethroned if it doesn't hold tonight 

I just feel bad for all the central valley folks, at least Portland Seattle and Eugene have had some good events the past few years 

King Euro stand strong! Be our guiding light!

I think PDX is still in play but this is reminding me somewhat of February 2021-- nasty ice storm for places south of downtown Portland 

If the Euro blinks I'll just have to ponder how these well funded models are so consistently rancid for any sort of prediction in this region 

Bad bad bad bad bad 

That Wednesday low is good for a dumping of wet snow somewhere along I-5 but for the valley it's those weekend storms that catch my attention. Real shades of 2/6/2014 with some of them.

I'm not really sure how it measures up synoptically, but parts of this setup is giving me shades of 2/2014. Well, we'd be fortunate to see a repeat.

Immensely hoping one of those lows can give the South Valley a little something 

Looks like infinitesimally small changes on the 18z Euro 

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Well we lost the GraphCast, so it's unironcially over. Oh well, it was fun model riding still!

Idk to what extent but we will likely have it again by this evening. I know all the hype about its verification scores but I still very much trust the EURO more-- and saying it's over after one experimental model run is lol, wait until the rest collapse later or something