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James Jones

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Posts posted by James Jones

  1. 10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

    Eh, only got to 71F today so not really that extreme.

    The region wasn’t uniformly above average today to the same extent.

    Eugene only hit 93 the day Salem hit 117, Portland 116, and Seattle 108 because the southerly surge was already in progress. The last couple days were very close to being as anomalous as June 2021, and as others have mentioned the setup was very similar with the highest heights of the rex block being just to our north/northeast.

    It reminds me a bit of March 2012 for the Midwest in terms of how unprecedented this month as been for the region, though our climate isn't capable of the level of anomalies the Midwest and East can see during the cold season. The average high at PDX so far this month is an absurd 81.3, warmer than the average high for August with the old 1981-2010 normals. No other October in the last ~150 years has come even close.

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  2. Crazy stat: PDX has seen 100 consecutive days with a high of 70 or greater, beating the record of 96 set last year, which beat the record of 92 set in 2017. Seven of the top eight 70+ streaks have been set since 2012.

    Decent chance of a sub 70 high today or tomorrow, but if not the streak could get truly absurd (if it isn't already).


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  3. 23 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

    Wow, almost dark outside now at 3:20 p.m. That is one thick smoke deck. Fortunately not mixing down much as yet. Wind is calm. Just 84º thanks to the smoke and limited mixing. Only 1.5 hours before the power is supposed to be shut off.

    That's one absurdly thick smoke plume. The sky is milky white up here but we're lucky compared to most of the region.


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  4. 22 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    Real talk time though. Did anyone see this coming for the summer? Even during the massive heatwave at the end of last month, some were pointing to it as a good sign for a cooler late summer. That clearly isn’t happening. WTF is going on. Any alphabet soup, Phil? 


    On 4/9/2022 at 11:57 AM, James Jones said:

    Given the drought the West is facing it wouldn't surprise me if we had another Dust Bowl type summer out this way. 

    Predicting a hot summer these days is about as difficult as predicting a predominately cloudy December. Best to expect it to be hot until the atmosphere proves otherwise.

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  5. 2 hours ago, Kayla said:

    Jeez, hadn't realized how hot tomorrow and Thursday has become around the PDX area. Looking very likely that 2022 will stand alone as far as number of 100 degree days.

    Feeling really fortunate that we may finally catch a break from the furnace out here beginning next week but no such luck for the PNW lowlands. Even with the possible cool down next week, we're still likely looking at the warmest August on record here.

    Looks like this summer has already tied the PDX record for days of 98+ at 7, which will probably be broken tomorrow. We also are at 11 days of 95+, the record being 14 in 2015. 

    The first front of fall is going to be soooo nice. I'm hoping September ends up okay like we've seen in a lot of recent years, but right now my feeling is that this could be one of those years where summer drags on into October.

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  6. 1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

    This should be Portland's 9th 100 degree day in the past two years, which is more than most decades had before the 1970s!

    And 11 in the last three years, which is the most Portland has ever seen in a 3 year stretch with the old record being 9. 100 degree days per decade at PDX:

    40s: 12

    50s: 2

    60s: 7

    70s: 15

    80s: 15

    90s: 12

    00s: 15

    10s: 11

    20s: 11 so far

    The number of 90 degree days has been trending up significantly but up until now the number of extreme 100+ days has been pretty constant for the last 50 years, though that may be changing.


    53 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

    But... Cliff Mass says, and I quote: "the peak temperature, duration, and frequency of extreme heat events are not rapidly rising in the Northwest."

    I don't know what the guy's deal is but he's basically a straight up climate change denier at this point. Several years back I remember him making a blog post about how our fire seasons haven't been changing in length, and his "evidence" was to show March-April-May temperature and precip trends hadn't changed much over the last century. That was when I stopped reading his blog entirely.

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    On 7/31/2022 at 10:10 AM, BLI snowman said:

    From a 500mb perspective, we've basically become part of the desert SW from July 15 to August 20. Without any of the benefits from the monsoon.

    This is how I've been thinking of it. PDX's average highs since 2013 demonstrate this well, the late July through late August period shows a distinct spike (as well as late June, but that may be more happenstance). 


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  8. 13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

    Maybe y'all are just overthinking this whole thing, and the true, simpler answer is that the whole earth is much hotter now than it was in the past. Harder to be cooler than normal when the dice are stacked against you. Ockham's Razor, 'ol reliable, if you will.

    This is simply the new normal. There will be random deviations lower eventually, but "normal" summers like 2010/11 will become incredibly cool for our climate, much like 2001 was for the aughts'..

    It's true we're unlikely to see historically cool summers anymore, even something like 2011 seems like it would be really tough to pull off these days. My point was more that we haven't really seen any ENSO signal in the last decade around our elevated baseline summer temps. 

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  9. 30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    For clarification... we had highs in the 60s on August 4, 15, 16, 30, 31 in the torrid summer of 2015 in the Snoqualmie Valley.   And it rained on all those days.    And it was a top 5 wet August at SEA.    And it was still a hot summer.   Crashes always happen.  

    This feels like a Nino summer.   

    We talked about this a couple weeks ago but ENSO state hasn't seemed to make any difference for our summer weather in the last decade. Last summer was also a Nina and it torched, and 2019 was a Nino (albeit weak) and was our coolest summer since 2012. And as Jesse pointed out winter '18-'19 was a very strange progression for a Nino. Weird stuff.

    I also saw this tweet from wxstatman:


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  10. 48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

    00z GFS is garbage. 2015 type weather

    If it's going to be hot it would be nice if we could at least tap into some monsoonal moisture at some point. I don't even remember the last time we had a decent summer thunderstorm outbreak. Right now it's looking like this could be a painfully dull extended stretch of low end heat with a few days of ~100 (for the WV).

  11. 5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    It’s pretty crazy we are going to see another hot summer this year. I really though this one would at least be 1991-2020 average, with the “late” (historically normal) start, wet June and very Niña esque April-Jun.

    Seems like ENSO forcing hasn’t been quite right for a few years now though.  Similar type of thing with Feb/March 2019.

    I've seen some mets on twitter and other forums talk about how ENSO forcing and other teleconnections aren't producing traditional outcomes as reliably as they used to. No idea if that's confirmation bias or what, but you're definitely not the only one to make that observation. 

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  12. 6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    I was kind of thinking the same thing.

    Despite all the heat the last decade of summers, July ‘09 still holds the record for consecutive 90+ days at PDX, with ten.

    And the record for consecutive 100+ was all the way back in 1941. Really hoping we don't match that one.

    I'm hoping the cool and wet spring will help the vegetation, though if mega heatwaves start to become a near annual occurrence it could get ugly. 

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