Meatyorologist

Tracking the blizzard hitting Minnesota... already the snowiest February in history there.

 

A lone car on the freeway tonight in Minneapolis.  

 

When she says her parents aren't home.

So we have seen the models totally **** us inside 24 hours dozens of times, have we ever once seen the models totally flip in our favor in less than 24 hours...

Yes. February 9th 2014.

GFS pulling north with less of a supporting trough. No further frames yet, but I suspect that  southern Washington/ northern Oregon gets the ballot with this one.

Yikes! Glad you guys got your northern trend. Enjoy the rain!

 

The ICON is finicky with both low placement and outflow temperatures. Has a hard time with both.

This is absolutely correct.

 

A slight kink would allow the low to bomb a bit and curve way North (we've seen models miss on this many times) but slightly more jet suppression could easily usher due East it keep all the snow down in Oregon. Just gonna be wait and see mode for a while.

This exact thing happened on Feb. 6th, 2014. Chehalis was expected to be the dividing line, then that brief rapid intensification happened and sent moisture all the way up to Mount Vernon.

 

That was a notable night for me not on the basis of how much we got (two inches that melted the following day), but on what we were expected to get (not even a taste).

The cold definitely isn't seasonable. Average highs will be in the mid-50s down here within a week or so.

By seasonably cold I mean “not unusually cold”, like mid 40’s for highs and 10’s-20’s for lows.

GFS goes boring mode after early next week. Seasonably cold and bone dry for the foreseeable future.

No the GEM gets cold. It’s terrain bleeds more than the elevator in The Shining.

What do the light and dark blue lines mean?

They’re contour lines for temperature.

 

Dark blue = 32F

Light blue = 35F

Let’s not forget that a good portion of this falls while it’s above freezing.

Next Friday or this Friday?

Next week, the 15th I believe.

The WRF and the ECMWF both show King County being the winner Friday night.  Totally awesome!  What incredible timing also, getting a big snow on a Friday night.  And how about that third big trough being shown around day 10?

I'm leaving for Yuma next Friday.

 

Hope y'all see something big

Correct.

Indeed

So Seattle proper got about 2-3". It's hard to tell what amounts were widespread sometimes because in my mind everyone in W. Washington on here is "from Seattle," but I know different locations up there vary wildly. 

Yet here in the north part of the city a sound 4-5". It really was dependent on who received accumulating snow first. Areas to the north and east of the city got up to 10".

I don't need to be looking over my shoulder when I leave my place at night. Good riddance.

I feel like there's a backstory I'm missing out on here...?

18z is a step in the right direction for Seattle. Less warm air intrusion from the south, allows for arctic air to invade, much like yesterday except with more moisture.

up vote this if you like snow

Filthy casual

 

Downvote this if you like snow

Can I just mention how much I love snow?

 

3"+ and counting in North Seattle. Blowing snow. More coming in.

 

Heaven.

I've written an update regarding the higher-than-expected snowfall.

 

Soak it in, forecast failures in favor of snow lovers are rare to come by.

 

https://meatyorologist.blogspot.com/2019/02/update-to-predictions.html

Seattle folks were pretty irked about that one as I recall. Probably because it was a completely different animal.

I don't wanna talk about that one.

Absolutely beautiful here in North Seattle. Dumping snow. Not sticking yet, temps around 35F.

Here's that blog for those of you down in Portland and co:

 

https://www.kptv.com/weather/blog/

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF through next Tuesday morning... insanity.

 

lol

The 12z GFS delivers. We're in for an extended period of cold and lots of snow.

 

Okay I don't want to be mean or anything but you are literally sharing 300+ hour GFS maps.

HRRR shows nothing happening tonight up here.    I want to see the point at which this model catches on to reality because its lost right now.  

 

HRRR has a really hard time with outflow. Sometimes also finicky with these kind of events.

 

Hell, the rapid refresh is mainly good for flat areas of convection. I'd trust the NAM more on this.