RentonHill

-28 for Colville is almost a record breaker. Still 6 days and probably wont happen...but still crazy to see these numbers being spit out.

Omak hasnt hit -15 since 1979.

So looks like 24 is the bogey??

hour 168...will probably look totally different in 3 days! Now we know we cant even trust Euro to be consistent days 6-7

100%

my thoughts as well

well...it is just 30 slightly crappier versions of the GFS itself. So if the GFS has this thing fundamentally wrong, GEFS isnt going to show anything different, methinks. Especially since we're so close to it now the higher resolution probably matters more and there's not enough time for different perturbations to work themselves through the progression (theory). idk

yes, that is how math works

id say its at least a half notch better than 12z. Need another ~two notches over the next 24 hours probably.

for some reason wxmodels is faster on the EPS runs. Everything else its the same speed.

Wx models only has 5 days averages so not a very clear pattern but end signal seems abrupt and noteworthy

For no reason whatsoever

sooner it blows up sooner we get to january. i'm all for it!

When there's a ridge involved in the long run the models have no problem agreeing with each other

it shows

It runs first. Thats gotta mean something!! It gets its own special category for me

I was going to say this. It never seemed as ridic as the GFS this past week but now that the first part of the upcoming pattern has sort of come into agreement among the others it has really started pooping the bed. Or its amazing and all the others are dog and we're wasting our time here

honestly i had totally written off sunday. completely forgot with all the focus moved to mid week.

want to add that i wasnt saying you were wrong there - most EPS members in 6z run do show some minor snow.

i think its important to clarify that that as a mean there could be zero ensemble members actually showing a dusting. a majority could show nothing and a few extreme amounts would lead to the amounts above too.

Day 8