bainbridgekid

Just a slight warming trend for opening day of boating season next Saturday on the GFS.

00z last night had us in the mid 40's and 12z this morning has us in the mid 80's.

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

But you’ll see more sunny/70+ wx in SC than you would in WA. So what are you missing? I don’t get it.

If I was missing a 4” snow event here but traveling somewhere where a 12”+ snowstorm was headed, I wouldn’t be salty about “missing” the 4” one. That’s just weird.

Snow at home is just fundamentally different. Never hits the same when you're on vacation.

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its going to be quite a change from early afternoon to evening.    Pretty unusual.  

I'll be in Whistler and it's supposed to go from near 60 Saturday afternoon to snow near the village Saturday night. Up the hill should go from near 50 to seeing several inches of snow in a few hours.

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows 71 to 58 at SEA between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.

It delays the rain a couple hours behind the GFS. Still drops to 48 by 8pm, so still an impressive crash.

GFS shows one of the most impressive daytime temp crashes I've ever seen tomorrow. From 71 at 2pm to 49 at 5pm in Tacoma.

On 4/14/2024 at 9:51 PM, Mercurial said:

Went to the local beach on Whitefish Lake today.  People swimming, boating, beaching, and vibing.  In April.  In Montana.  I feel like we're going to pay dearly for this bliss come August. 

My friend was in Missoula yesterday and said it snowed 2" between 10am and Noon. Quite the shift!

Really dynamic evening today.

Everett went from 70 degrees at 4:30pm to 46 with heavy rain just 5.5 hours later at 10:00.

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

12z CMCE for the eclipse, definitely worse than the 00z.

How did you find that map? I can't find it anywhere with the last four runs and the percentages on it.

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Everyone having a Good Friday??

Gotta be the worst named holiday in history. 

Had a field trip to the Salmon Hatchery in Edmonds and got caught in one of the heaviest downpours I've ever seen as we were getting on the buses. I saw it coming on the radar and hurried everybody to the buses a few minutes early but about half the kids still got absolutely soaked. Truly some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen in Western Washington for about 3 minutes.

Looking at Wunderground stations nearby, the temperature also fell from 52 to 43 in about 10 minutes when the storm hit.

@Phil you're making an entirely different and unrelated point. I don't disagree that the top 1% of people possess an absurdly high proportion of the world's wealth. That is a fact. What I disagree with is that most people on this forum (or someone making 50-60K a year) are in that top 1% (or even 0.5% as you said.) Simple math based on the proportion of people who live in First World Countries with median incomes higher than that shows that can't be true.

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wait are we switching to household income vs individual income? You edited this post after I replied.

It doesn't matter which metric you use. The world is not so poor that 99% of people are poorer than someone who makes 50-60K. Not even close.

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Top 0.5% in overall wealth. That’s why I said *in the US* since the correlation between annual income and net worth can be very different from country to country.

Income by itself doesn’t tell you much.

If you want to go by wealth, then many people on this forum have a negative overall wealth due to debt, so they definitely aren't in the top 0.5%. Technically they'd have less wealth than a debtless person living in a mud hut.

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/07/21/are-you-in-the-global-middle-class-find-out-with-our-income-calculator/

Income ≠ wealth, necessarily, but the big picture is relatively unchanged.

Not sure how this is supposed to support your claim. I'm aware most of the world lives on less money than we do. What I'm disputing is the claims that "members of this forum are in the top 0.5%" and "50-60K a year puts you in the top 1% globally." Both are wrong by at least a factor of 10.

That link you shared says that 60K per year income puts you in the top 11.8% globally. Not close to 1%.

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

You forgot to unskew your distribution, silly.

If you make 50-60K annually in the US, you are very likely within in the top-1%, globally.

Not to mention differences in property values/cost of living. Makes a big difference in terms of net worth (by this metric, Americans are even wealthier compared to income alone).

You really think there's only ~75 million people in the world who make over 50-60k? That's absurd.

The median household income in the US is 75K and we're over 4% of the world's population. Not to mention Western Europe, Japan, and all the wealthy people in China and around the world.

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Technically speaking, everyone on this forum is likely in the top 0.5% relative to the global population.

Considering nearly 10% of the world's population lives in the US and Western Europe, that's definitely not true.

Nice to see Snoqualmie getting snow this morning. Puking up there right now.

19 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Thanks for the offer, but luckily we picked up a hotel reservation last night a bit outside of the eclipse totality area in Arkansas as our backup plan. Traffic will probably be crazy that day so if needed we'll just have to leave at 4am to secure a spot to view the eclipse.

 

12z run was the first great run for my planned area in Texas since Mondays 18z, really terrible for Arkansas though. Only 294 hours out, probably no room for it to improve at this range. Kinda weird that this map uses blue as clouds and white as clear skies, youd think itd be the opposite.

Those cloud maps are way overly pessimistic. Very unlikely all of those states will have 100% cloudcover like that. They seem to translate any cloudcover as 100% cloudcover as evidenced by the extremely sharp cutoff between full cloud cover and zero clouds it's predicting. That's rarely reality.

Euro and GFS both get quite chilly day 8-10.

522 thicknesses, 850's around -6 and some foothill snow.

Pretty rare to see such an intense CZ like band near Silverdale like this.

Tremendous bluebird day at Whistler today. 50 in the village and around 30 up top.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This sure fell apart... here is total snow now per the ECMWF over the weekend through Monday.

Yeah. Each run just slashed totals from the last. Pretty pathetic.

Now just hoping it'll be dry enough this weekend for decent skiing despite temps in the mid 30's. Euro and GFS are both pretty dry during the day both days.

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Way to beat those C0CKS!

My 4th grade class filled out brackets this morning and some of them kept asking me what the mascots are to help with their picks. The Gamecocks elicited quite the gigglefest. 

DOWN GOES KENTUCKY 

First round insanity continues.

15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Where is the Twin Cities on this map?

It's the 30.3" just West of where Wisconsin cuts into Minnesota.