bainbridgekid

Widespread overrunning snow Sunday night too on the 00z GFS.

Fun little guy Friday night on the 00z GFS brings some bands of moderate to heavy snow through especially in the South Sound.

He must have been looking at an old run or different night. This is lows tomorrow night when the snow supposedly falls.

3km NAM flips King County to heavy wet snow tomorrow night with decent accumulations South of I-90 and East of 405.

Friend in Mill Creek got 5" just NW of Clearview, but there was a very sharp cutoff on both the North and South side of the CZ. On my drive to work in Mountlake Terrace this morning it went from snow covered roads to zero snow on the ground in a couple miles.

I have a FB Weather group and two people reported 7" last night with pictures. One was near Freeland on Whidbey Island and the other was near Sultan along US-2. I bet the very center of that CZ probably got 10" in a few small spots with how narrow and stationary it was.

18z GFS got rid of the Saturday night snow for Puget Sound, but replaced it with more snow Friday night and Sunday night. Going to be very difficult tracking things the next week with how many different meandering weak systems come through here.

Impressive temp drop tomorrow night behind the cold front on the 3km NAM. Really sharp visible cold front. It also shows 47 mph gusts in Seattle tomorrow afternoon around 3 PM.

Tomorrow looks sneaky stormy with nearly an inch of rain and 30-45 mph wind. Might also be fun tracking the snow level falls on the backside of this system tomorrow night.

Anecdotal, but it feels like the Winter jet stream has been weaker and the Four Corners High in the Summer has been stronger the last decade or so. That would make some sense with a warmer Arctic weakening the Jet Stream and more warmth building in the lower latitudes in the Summer.

Forecasting this week will be particularly hard because there are several disorganized systems and blobs of moisture rotating through and tracking the exact strength, location, and timing of each of them will be nearly impossible. Wouldn't matter if temps weren't going to be near freezing some of the time, but as it is any of them could drop a quick 1-3" of snow just about anywhere if timed right during the night. Thursday night and Saturday night look like the most real threats at this point to me.

6z Euro 10:1 ratio map gives you 7" Thursday night. Kuchera gives you 1".

WRF Thursday night snow.

Interesting setup over the weekend with this weak low tracking South of Seattle. 12z GFS hammers the South and Central Sound with a narrow band of heavy wet snow. Kuchera map gives SEA 7".

Ended up with 2.5" in South Everett near Paine Field. Reports of 4-5" just a few miles North of me which makes sense based on the radar last night. Takes my seasonal snowfall to 5.5". Really pretty morning.

Roads are really bad in the CZ around Everett. It's been on and off here but has been dumping just a couple miles North of me for hours. Just measured 3/4 of an inch here.

Snowing pretty good here right at the Southern edge of the CZ with what looks like about half an inch new on the ground including pavement. Looks like it's about to stop for now but hopefully another band will slide South off Whidbey soon. 32.0 degrees.

I-5 covered again in South Everett.

CZ firing up over the Sound on Kitsap and West of Edmonds now.

The 3km NAM has 4 distinct areas of Convergence over the next 24 hours. Clearer on the QPF map than the snowfall map.

That thing meant business.

How in the world can you tell with such a sharp elevation/rain shadow based cutoff there?

I'm not home, but am missing out on a very heavy snow shower there. I-5 suddenly turning white right by my house.