Gradient Keeper

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the ECMWF event around day 8 similar to the January 2017 event that was so good in Portland?    Was that a system sliding south over a cold air mass in place?

Yeah strong east winds pulled in cold air.

Day 8.5 925s yeah, that bitter cold pool isn't going anywhere.

It would take several systems to scour out PDX as every storm would pull in more bitter low level cold.

Euro is very cold.

Euro is actually damn close to being as prolific cold as previous runs.

Ridge connection complete. Key factor.

Day 6 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS ... Euro still trying to blast the Columbia Basin.

We need that strong ridge merge/connection with the high pressure cell over the arctic.

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

At day 4 the euro does have the strongest block compared to GFS and GEM

Yeah. It's hanging on by a thread at Day 5.

Day 5 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS .... Same issues weakening ridge, less amplitude. Dang it.

This run has a chance.

Euro has far weaker energy along the Aleutians and the ridge is stronger, better amplitude.

Day 4 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Day 3 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Day 2 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Hi-res view of that compact mesolow. Very impressive! This may produce some strong winds later.

Day 1 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Ya ready?

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z UKMET just came in and it looks great! I love the UK!!!

The only model tonight to give us any hope so far. The trends on the GFS, GEFS and GEM are horrid(for Oregon).

Not good trends. Not even a little. 80% chance this falls apart. Realistic. Go Euro!