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Gradient Keeper

Night Shift
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Everything posted by Gradient Keeper

  1. It looks like we just may score again in February. Dramatic shifts on the ECMWF, GEM, and EPS tonight. Day 3.5 to 6.5 major improvement. Day 7+ love that PV retrograding through the Canadian prairies edging towards northeast Washington. Big things coming. MBG! Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes
  2. Very much so. Comparing the progress of the arctic front with the 00z WRF 1.33km it's right on schedule. The boundary moving in from the north is a bit behind modeling though just north of Castle Rock. The fact the WRF is doing that well with the backdoor front into the eastern Gorge means it may be quite close with pressure gradient forecasts and if so, areas east of I-205 especially Gresham, Troutdale, Fairview, Wood village are going to see very strong possibly damaging winds. Another area of similar winds for the Foothills up into Clark County and even the West Hills. There is the potential before this east wind storm is over that we could see the strongest east winds in 20-25 years. 12z GFS in 4 hours 7 minutes
  3. I've never seen anything like this for an ensemble for east winds. Ever. The ECMWF Op IF it's correct would produce a damaging east wind storm, but not just gap, downslope as well. 4 am Saturday the PDX-DLS gradient is at least -14mb and the Cross Cascade OTH-GEG gradient at a staggering -29mb! The criteria typically where we look for downslope wind storm potential is -24mb. This needs to be watched very closely. Oh, and this occurs as an arctic blast is underway with temps plummeting.
  4. The 6z GEFS has a very similar theme as the 6z GFS. It looks like temps at PDX fall below freezing 4-5 PM Friday and plummet into the 20s through Sunday morning at least as a lot of precipitation arrives. It's unclear how much of that is snow, sleet, or freezing rain.
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