Gradient Keeper

Day 3.5 Absolutely remarkable agreement between the 12z GFS, ECMWF, GEM, and now 18z NAM handling the 500mb pattern identically in lock-step. Colder runs ahead. Money Back Guarantee. 00z ECMWF in 8 hour 37 minutes

Sharp pressure rises past 7 hours at Olympia and now Kelso has sharp pressure rises too. The arctic front is getting kicked southward still. I'm impressed. Kelso now 32 F, 27 dp light snow

If I gotta, then I gotta Sunset in 5 hours 51 minutes

Amazing 12z ECMWF run. Day 4 was nearly identical 500mb pattern as the 12z GEM which was snowy and VERY cold. Another thing to point out is the 00z EPS last night showed that pattern setting up around Day 5.5 to 6 and this run moved timing ahead setting it up Day 4.5 to 5. This is an extremely encouraging sign. Onto 00z! 18z NAM in 36 minutes

WOW

6z GEFS High/Low temps for The Dalles. Significant modified arctic air progged for the Gorge and if there is(probably will be) east winds, PDX is going into the freezer! WOW! Through February 18th the ensemble mean doesn't even show a high temp reaching freezing!

5:30 AM Kramer(just south of Omak) 2 F, dp -2, N winds G 67mph! Big time arctic blast into the Columbia Basin. The arctic air is just now moving into Pasco.

He's in my group doing a live stream right now. https://livestormchasing.com/map?fbclid=IwAR1FBHLHQ4mFYXcADnIXLHM7aqe9H68havHwN3u0n4zF3Hjr5QB-Jq5fmPc

Looks like snowfall rates now of 1.5 to 2" per hour in northern Puget Sound. Mesoanalysis shows modest 925-850 frontogenesis aiding in stronger lift. Winter Storm Warning is imminent. 6z GFS in 19 minutes

Thickness lower than 00z at PDX 523-524. The low is a tiny notch east too.

Surface observations as of 10 PM. Absolutely MASSIVE reservoir of bitter air to our north! 10 PM IR Imagery with Analyzed Fronts. Strengthening 1046mb Yukon High. I believe that's a few mb stronger than modeled. This is good support to drive arctic air southward and possibly more than modeled in the coming days.

-22 now. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-79_metric_e.html

10 PM - 850mb temperatures. Bitter arctic cold sliding south in BC nicely.

Day 7

Just woke up 00z ECMWF Day 6

Best 16 day ensembles I've ever seen. Still room to trend colder too.

Just looked at IR Loop and the arctic trough is progressing southward nicely now nearing central BC. Well, I won't be here for 6z, 12z, or 18z runs today. Heading up to Seattle 6:30 AM to visit Nephew at UW Medical Center. Have a good night and day. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

The block has trended stronger for the past 8 runs. 6z NAM was also 2 notches stronger than 00z.

850mb temp UPDATE - As of 10 PM Brutally cold arctic air continues to deepen and expand just north of Central British Columbia. It will start to make its move southward overnight and tomorrow.

Day 10

Day 9'er

Day 8

The coldest air and upper level trough are still to your north. Enjoy!

Day 7

Day 6