Gradient Keeper

Alright. Based on the GFS, ECMWF, EPS I'm just going to go ahead and break it out. Colder runs ahead. Money back guarantee.

I just analyzed Water vapor imagery and that upper level trough is looking potent. I also see this produced 90mph wind gusts near Juneau! WOW 1 S Juneau [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M90 MPH at 3:02 AM AKST -- WIND GUST AT AJ DOCK S Juneau [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M61 MPH at 2:13 AM AKST -- WIND GUST AT JUNEAU DOWNTOWN LIBRARY Douglas [ Co, AK] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M65 MPH at 31 Jan, 8:48 PM AKST -- WIND GUSTS RECORDED AT SOUTH DOUGLAS BOAT HARBOR.

12z Canadian ensembles shows a good possibility for modified arctic air into the eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin by the 6th.

My cautiously optimistic self probably shouldn't do this, but my confidence is increasing significantly for Cold and SNOW over the next 7-10 days! YEAH! Let's do this. 18z NAM in 16 minutes

Day 10 continuous cold northeast flow wow

Day 9 BRRR!!

850s as of 10 AM. Air mass to the north is looking REAL COLD and forecast to turn even colder! C'MON!!!!

Day 8

The block might be too far west with that tilt.

Day 7

Hmmm, if this trend for stronger blocking, amplification Day 3-5 continues we may see an arctic blast Days 5-7 yet.

Day 6

Day 5 Ummm backdoor reload already?

Day 4

Block axis orientation sharper SW-NE. Block also several notches stronger, more amplified and tilting into Northwest Territories. Hmmm.

Day 3

Block quite a bit stronger and tilting further into Yukon too.

Model comparison 12z Today Yesterday

Compared to 12z yesterday arctic trough several notches to the east.

Day 2

Compared to 12z yesterday. Arctic trough a notch south and cut-off low near northern California 3 notches southwest. Block amplitude a notch stronger and axis 2 notches west.

12z ECMWF Day 1

WRF outstanding again! back to back runs. If I had to make a forecast based on WRF and 4km Soundings 8 PM Sunday, Rain to slowly change to a mix then wet snow PDX metro and all snow Multnomah Falls westward progressing into Troutdale, Gresham east of I-205. That's assuming the WRF is handling the cold air progression correctly.

No dice with 12z GEM for secondary cold shot. That could change on future runs. I think it will.