Cascadia_Wx

Nice wet and active 00z GFS run. Even gives a warm and sunny Friday/Saturday next week as the next ULL winds up offshore and to the south.

Cool, overcast and breezy 54/48 day here. Not much rain though, just some sprinkles at times.

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That Tuesday storm would have been a nice bit of snow probably as recently as 5 or 6 weeks ago. Nice BC slider signature.

Haven’t you seen the latest 7-day? Sunny and 72 that day. I think the models get most of their data from KPTV’s 7-day forecast so they should be catching up shortly. 

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was. I paddled from Armitage Park on the McKenzie to the Willamette at Harrisburg that day. Fishing was HOTT on the McKenzie stretch. 

Have you even seen the Cinco de Mayo trough on the 12z GFS yet 

Almost seemed like the GFS was trying to revert back to the pattern of the last 4-6 weeks yesterday, and now it’s “correcting” itself. Maybe a sign that more -ENSO forcing is coming into the picture?

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last year we had our biggest august rain since 2015. 

And what a blessing it was Andrew.

11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m scared for this summer

Like scared there might be a marine layer that doesn’t burn off until 11 or so some days scared?

Just had some incredibly heavy rain move over. Picked up close to 1/2” in 5 minutes. 52 degrees currently.

Ended up with a 59/49 spread here today. Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers at times. 

7 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

That's a lot to ask for in this climate.

The Puget sound area and central Oregon are wildly different climates.

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah I honestly don’t mind the ridging and warmth in the summer as long as it’s not extremely hot like 90+ and as long as there is a decent rain every couple of weeks. Once I’m acclimated to 80 degree temps it’s really not that bad.

I’m even ok with 90+ as long as it comes in 3-4 day spurts or so. With buffers of marine layer days and highs in the 70s. Throw a cutoff low t-storm pattern in there followed up by some deep marine layer drizzle to keep the fire threat down. Dynamic summers can be fun and enjoyable.

The 7-12 day spells of stagnant, smoky heat with even the lows barely getting below 65 for days on end are pretty awful though. But maybe we just need to learn to embrace them if they’re a new part of our climate.

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I like warmth and ridging in the summertime. It’s just a little early to flip that switch to on. 

So do I. Although I like said warmth and ridging broken up with marine layer days and maybe even some rain every 2-3 weeks. But even heatwaves can be fun as long as they aren’t June 2021, July 2022 or August 2023 repeats.

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I mean, we can go with PDX records are all that matter if you want. But you yourself have many times pointed out how unrepresentative the airport is of your area and much of the metro. Thought that was something we agreed on.

I do agree overall, but I’m still going to refer to the major recordkeeping station in my area. Don’t need someone chasing me around with and asterisk every time I mention a stat there without typing up a disclaimer

And it’s not like last May was cold everywhere else. It was hot and dry regionally.

18z sure looked nice. Let’s hope the models flip back some. Worth noting the EPS hasn’t really been on board for some of the crazy ridging the GFS has been showing at times the last 24 hours.

The 12z Euro was ridgier in the 6-10 day range than past runs, though.

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The point was you say "we" saw a record hot May in 2023, but it was far from the whole metro - just PDX. Some months have been legit record hot across the whole area, but that wasn't one of them.

Obviously it was very dry and warm, but the whole record month thing doesn't hold as much weight when it's a station seeing 50% more of them than other places.

Sounds like nitpicking to me.

32 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Like a soaking rain followed by sun and 60ish?

We usually get a lot of sunbreaks in troughy periods this time of year. Pretty rare to get stronger than forecasted rainbreaks when we have a big ridge overhead though.

Looks like PDX is up to 60 after going one entire day without hitting it.

47 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Not sure how many on here live at PDX, but I do know that last May was not record warm such places as downtown Portland, Vancouver, and Battle Ground.

As usual, what is your point? It was still a hot and dry May, and now we’re looking at the possibility of another one.

We would have a solid head start on an all-time record warm May if the 12z GFS verified. Been awhile since our last one, almost a whole year!

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Not funny

Is she ever?

Shaky ensemble support, but it’s ridging so it’ll probably happen.

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just a slight warming trend for opening day of boating season next Saturday on the GFS.

00z last night had us in the mid 40's and 12z this morning has us in the mid 80's.

Looks like another win for the bourgeois.

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I wouldn't call mostly 0 to +2 with pockets of 0 to -2 moderately above normal across the board. It's not perfectly average, but this spring has been pretty darn close for most lowland locations.

And that will be even more the case by Tuesday.

I see a lot more yellow on that map than I do green for OR/WA. Seems pretty straightforward. Now let’s spend the next four hours debating it.

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At least it's been a pretty temperate spring so far. And of course this map will look cooler in a few days.

No one has said it’s been a wall to wall blowtorch. But as that map shows, it’s been moderately above normal across the board. And we have had some significant ridging events, mid-March being the most notable. 

Looks like some models want to immediately return us to a regime dominated by ridging, much like we saw in the mid-March to mid-April timeframe. Would be par for the course. Was hoping this cool and wet pattern would have a little more lasting power, but that’s asking a lot these days.

Ended up with a 54/49 spread yesterday. Light to moderate rain at times much of the day, with little in the way of sunbreaks.

Ended up with close to .70” on the day.