TheNewCulverJosh

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Over here I'm fine with an average anomaly and heavy precip.

Love coming back every winter and seeing the same reactions to every control, ensemble, GOLU, SNAFU, PIKACHU models from you guys.

You never fail to produce the goods.  This may be the best winter model-riding year ever!!!!!  Keep it going, popcorn is in hand.

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow, I'm in love with the fuzzy wuzzy.  Lots of members below -2.

The only difference between a crappy and epic winter with most of you guys is determined by 1 heavy band that dumps 2"/hour snow rates.

28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Good mountain snow pattern and tons of potential if the ridge is nudged further east. C'MON!!!!

I know Pete Parsons is well known as a kook on these forums, but he did say we had a better chance of onshore snow potential in the western valleys.  Now, we know that is all left to interpretation, but maybe he is on to something this year?

47 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah. Looking at the 250mb model NPAC view shows the jet begins to pull apart and retract Day 10-11. That's the first Op run I am aware of that closely followed the GEFS, CMCE, and EPS with that progression.

00z GFS in 2 hours 14 minutes

Not in the ideal position but can easily shift in the next 72 hours.  

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well we still have February. 

I'm thinking a heavy wet 3" snowfall the evening of March 17th is still possible.

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

On days like today it doesn’t matter to me if it’s 41 or 31. I do hope the fog burns off and we get to participate in the sunny day. 

Got down to 20 last night and still only 30 here with bright sunshine.  Amazing how just a little E/NE drift can keep temps down here.  Gotta love the high desert.

Not sure why anyone would be freaking out.  We appear to be hitting a decent pattern, right around the optimal time (early Dec.).  What's not to like?

26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

She is hot and would be very hard to turn down. I might trade her for a good December snowstorm though, only that.

2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

39 in the swamp

gonna get a good freeze tonight

I'm thinking a 34.4 degree frost.

Not sure what is worse.  Rex block that lasts from Dec 1st-March 31st, or the way the Ducks are playing tonight.

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I know for a fact 1916 was uber ridiculous over there.  I've seen pictures from Cle Elum that showed many feet on the ground.  It was extraordinary even for there.  I want to say there was over 100 inches on the ground, but I can't remember where I saw that.

Bet the Model T had a hell of time in such weather.

Forecast is for 27.......down to 30.2 at 6:25 PM.  Doubt that forecast holds.

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I’ve never understood why those CPC analog maps are based on a predicted setup that is likely to change rather than just comparing the actual current conditions to historical patterns.

If the current atmospheric conditions were 90% similar to a certain date that would mean a lot more than if a 7 day map is equally similar.

CPC is worthless outside of their 6-10 day.  They even screw that up sometimes.

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Analogs are just one of many tools in the box for long range forecasting.

Most of us know this, but we have 4 or 5 good ones spanned out 100 years.  They hold no water though if you really look at the overall picture.  Mark knows this as well.

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, I've seen 47F snow in Nevada near Reno before. Now, that was based on the car thermometer, but I don't think it was much colder than 45F.

I saw it rain in Portland at 33 degrees for 4 months before.  What's your point? LOL

Analogs usually make me yawn.  Pete Parsons lives by them.

This should tell you all you need to know.  I would rather just wait and see and GOLU like I never have before.

Mild 47 here at the moment.  Looks like a couple more hours before I am on the backside of the low.  Most likely at or close to the high for the day. 

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen is pretty IN on December now... Seems like he rooting for the "goods." Jesse would be proud. 

What pretell did Mhork say?

Edit: Saw it on Facebook......good deal!!!

This storm has a Jan 10th, 2017 look to it, albeit it about 75-100 miles north and no cold air in place.  But similar in it's look.

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GEFS, CMCE in very good agreement Day 10+ show a ridge merger, block, and WPAC jet retracting. Now the EPS is showing a similar signal. 1 day out from the big pattern change emerging on all models

Ya, guess you're right.  Looks closer to day 13 to me though.

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

 

 

Daddy like!!!

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GEFS, CMCE in very good agreement Day 10+ show a ridge merger, block, and WPAC jet retracting. Now the EPS is showing a similar signal. 1 day out from the big pattern change emerging on all models

Looks a little too transitory. The jet is is raging.

Down to 32.5 already.  Had a 38.5/20.1 line today.....not bad for Nov. 17th.  

Forecast high was 47 today.