TheNewCulverJosh

After 5 days of South, Southwesterly, or westerly winds we have now turned northerly here in Culver.  

Hopefully by tomorrow night we can start tracking the system vs. models.

2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

PDX AFD

"there is some indication that air mass to south of Portland will stay too warm, with some southerly component aloft that may result in any snowflakes melting before reaching the ground. So, will trend to keeping snow levels around 500 feet for the Portland/Vancouver metro"

How does this even make any sense? The surface is all well below freezing in these areas, the warm nose is way above. If you get warm nosed, sea level or 500 ft doesn't really matter. NWS loves to pull arbitrary snow levels out of their rear ends. 

 

Yep, being near the freezer door or being in a location where cold air damming occurs is all that will matter with this one.  Obviously orographics will play a part to some degree say for the west hills and adjacent coast range foothills.  I wouldn't be surprised if someone up at Skyline sees 18".

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Complete opposite to 16-17, constantly battered with snow and even when it wasn't snowing, lots of moderate/heavy rainfall. Want that again!

I'm hoping to be in the sweet spot here with the low level northerly flow and deep overrunning moisture....fingers are crossed.

2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

I like where we are sitting now. At least for NW OR and areas north, it is looking increasingly like to be either snowy or very cold and dry and hopefully snow later on. Nothing really indicating SW winds, 40s and/or rain. Gonna be fun to watch the models try to nail the exact track of this system. Hopefully in the coming 24 hours we will get some kind of consensus. I'm expecting things will eventually trend back north a bit but we can probably rule out any lows bombing out and flying to BC at this point.

Take it back to old school and watch this thing in real time, infrared and WV imagery.

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Pendleton AFD was rather thrilling to read, fully with blizzards intact.

Medford hints at more terrain locked precipitation/snow. Never have I seen so much shadowing in one season, this has been going on since November hence my anemic looking snow total.

Just can't get that boundary close enough to you down there. Klamath Falls weather, albeit not nearly as cold, reminds me a lot of Anchorage weather.  It would snow in all points North, South, East, West, and not in Anchorage when I was there.

From Pendleton AFD.......

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...There is a good possibility
of a strong winter storm Thursday through Friday, with the
heaviest snow over eastern Oregon and far southern WA. A tight
north-northeast pressure gradient will also bring low wind chills
during this time. An upper low off the Pacific will approach the
OR coast and spread precipitation east of the Cascades Thursday.
The low level upslope combined with the deep layer moisture could
bring moderate to heavy snow to the east slopes of the southern WA
Cascades (mainly in Yakima and Klickitat Counties), the east
slopes of the OR Cascades, the Blue Mountains and the Blue
Mountain Foothills, and central Oregon. The farther north in
eastern WA, the lesser the chance for snow. Surface winds at 10-20
mph could bring blowing and drifting of snow to a few areas, and
wind chills around -5F to 5F cannot be ruled out. Models have had
some timing issues so it`s wise to wait a little longer for a
couple of more model runs to work out the details of this
approaching system.

The aforementioned low will dive south into CA Thursday night with
snow decreasing from the north. Meanwhile, a secondary low is
progged to move south across eastern WA on Friday. It`s a slight
possibility that a stationary front will set up along the WA/OR
border for a prolonged period of snow with these two boundaries
meet. This is according to the latest ECMWF, but can`t get too
excited about this due to the fair amount of spread reviewing the
MSLP of the ECMWF ensembles. Believe the secondary low will help
force the offshore low to the south rather than maintain the
continuous snow for Friday. It`s a complex pattern this weekend
with a fair degree of uncertainty. Differences are mainly the
amplitude of an offshore ridge on Sunday through Monday, and
cluster analysis show ensembles trending toward a more westerly
flow early next week. This would keep mountain snow showers and a
slight chance elsewhere and a little warmer on Monday. Wister

Just remember, Jan 10, 2017 was forecast to be tr-4".

Still have never found any instance where Tom Brady disrespected someone.  He is back next year for an 8th championship.  He certainly has the team.

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

This goes to show us that when models show an aggressive push of arctic air in the Day 4-6 time frame to never buy into that and wait until we're within Day 3(now).

The knee-jerk reactions on here are funny.  

TB with a clinic.........

Lots of energy across the sound in the PSCZ.........anyone have a temp map from the lowlands out to the foothills?

Ok...if the EURO is correct, then this dude at halftime is really singing......shows you I believe the other models :).

The issue is ev

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The issue is the sizeable shifts north with each ECMWF run... when does it stop?    I was surprised how far north the 18Z ECMWF shifted.

The issue is how you take 4 to 5 day models as gospel.

Just now, wxmet said:

You know how this forum works.

A lot of the negativity is from those that have only followed models for a few winters.  Someone posts something on the internet and it becomes gospel.

I mentioned the EURO 20 times while everyone was sucking each other's #(@(#, then it runs and you all act like the world is over.  This forum....geez....

The Weenie-ness is at an all time high.  You are gung-ho and then you say winter is over.  

Relax already.....geez.

Euro out to lunch???  How come every other model shows it different???

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You mean to tell me what the 18z ECMWF for snow ratio tonight for the PSCZ is not temperature dependent? 

I thought you were looking at a precip map....never mind.  Tonight we shouldn't be worried about anyway :).

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Thinks it'll be too warm maybe? 

Temperature has nothing to do with modeled radar.

PSCZ looks good right now, but not any low level support for it probably after 10 PM or so.

Just now, Timmy said:

He did say “buckle up” to someone on twitter

Just waiting for that blog post.

Just now, snow_wizard said:

A really good blend.  Very often the ECMWF and GFS meet in the middle.

I still want to see a better EURO run.

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I'll take a blend with the Euro since it had more moisture next weekend. 

If that CAA is as strong as the GFS suggests then the convective potential will be off the charts.  Definitely has thundersnow possibilities somewhere.

Just now, wxmet said:

That is amazing.