SilverFallsAndrew

FV-3 is pretty good late next week. Then gets VERY close to an arctic blast, but it undercuts and ruins the party.

FV-3 undercuts the block by the 10th.

Snowmizer said the longest cool/cold stretch since 2008. That was what I was responding to. My post had nothing to do with snow.

It also develops a huge ridge over most of the continental US. It's actually not far from a March 2012 pattern.

Just noticed the CFS develops a monster GOA vortex toward the end of the month. Would probably turn things really wet.

I know some of you like to follow the PNA.

February 1990.

Hoquiam had 38 of 44 days come in below average from December 4-January 16th. The first 16 days of January 2017 were below average... I really really doubt we'll run a streak better than that in the next month and a half. Olympia and Seattle had 18 straight below normal days from December 30-January 16th.

18z goes nuts in the long range.

December 2016/January 2017 happened...

Drunk uncle looks like it might be getting ready to do drunk uncle things...

Looks like they are going for 2" or so here. Which would make sense.

18z gets there somehow...

Energy is splitting.

Deformation band quickly pulls south.

It is very possible I do not even see accumulating snow at 1600' unless there is some deformation zone action at some point.

Monday night deformation zone formation looks decent...

Geez... Unbelievable how lame the Monday/Tueday period looks now...Yikes.

Had 16 dry days in January up here.

You would think the ICON would back off at some point.

ICON still sticking to its guns...

Looking at the models for the Sunday-Tuesday period it is pretty amazing to see how much things have warmed over the past 2-3 days. Hopefully we can avoid that trend for the late week stuff.

NAM looks further west.

At Silver Falls, the period of record is 1938-present so that cuts out that great 1922-36 period. The top 5 looks MUCH different, but 1989 is still king. Also cold onshore flow Februaries are much more anomalously cold up here than at Salem. Pretty amazing February 1989 never hit 50 and the warmest high after 2/12/1956 was 41. 1) 1989 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1989&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 2) 1956 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1956&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 3) 2011 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2011&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 4) 1990 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1990&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 5) 1949 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1949&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

So just reviewed the top 10 coldest Februaries for Salem. I like to look at SLE because it is the closest major station to me, and it has a continuous period of record back to 1892. There has not been a top 10 cold February at SLE since 1993. 5 of the 10 coldest were in the 1922-36 period. 3 of the top 11 were in the 1985-1993 period. So they tend to run in bunches. The average snowfall in these months was 4.4" which is far above the median snowfall at SLE in February. 7 of the 10 years had measurable snow. Some of the years toward the bottom of the top 10 also had some very warm periods. If the EPS is even close to accurate we will put together a really solid first half of the month. To get a top 5-7 cold month we would have to avoid any kind of multi-day 60+ stretch at the end of the month. To get into the top 3-5 we would probably need to have some arctic air make it in at some point. 1) 1989 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1989&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 2) 1936 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1936&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 3) 1929 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1929&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 4) 1956 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1956&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 5) 1923 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1923&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 6) 1933 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1933&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 7) 1894 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1894&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 8) 1922 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1922&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 9) 1971 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1971&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 9) 1993 https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1993&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0