Andrew M

Snowing moderately and sticking once again, 850 feet NW Portland. 32.7 degrees

1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Who is Mark, and why is he talked about so much? Is he the only forecaster in PDX? Haha

Has a fairly accurate record, usually very conservative and calls busts early on, but he is gung ho on this system for Portland.

Wow, major PDX snowstorm!!

00z Nam 2C colder Wednesday 

Latest thoughts from Mark Nelsen for Thursday into Friday morning for Portland.

Mark Nelsens latest thoughts for Portland, confidence increasing for major snow/ice event for the metro area.

https://fb.watch/3yRGLfMvPz/

Winter Storm Watch just issued for Portland area 

New update from Fox 12 for Portland

5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Idk models have just gotten worse and worse the past day

I hear ya, been through these busts a million times, never gets easier. That said, i'm not sold on this being a bust yet. Even the bust models give us some snow and freezing rain. Slight adjust will make huge differences here. This could be the last shift north before some wobbles south tonight into tomorrow, seen that a million times too. Time will tell

1 Nam run and its storm canceled huh? 

NBM gives PDX to Olympia 10-12 inches of snow

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

South of what?

UKMET is a Tillamook, Oregon landfall

This may end up being the final wobble north before a slight adjustment south based on the model means. Landfall appears increasingly likely somewhere between Tillamook and Astoria before heading ESE.

Just now, GobBluth said:

operational on the warm side?

Op appears to be one of the most northern trends, mean is a between central and northern Oregon coast 

GEFS low locations

Looking at temps around Bellingham and north it appears to be colder than the Euro forecast and more in line with the GFS so far.

2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

33-36 degree rain to start for most areas away from the gorge, but I would expect the changeover to occur within 4-5 hours of precipitation commmencing.  Most likely some pockets of heavy snow all the way down to Woodburn or so, more focused west of I-5, my best guess.  Places like Molalla, Canby, Oregon City, etc....may get the shaft once again.

Seems reasonable. I'm feeling somewhat comfortable here in the west hills of NW Portland, though further slight moves north could even effect here greatly. May still see another nudge south again though as the Euro and GFS come together over the next 24 hours.

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Zr signature most the time though for pdx

Good point, could certainly be more of a ZR event with bursts of snow at times too. Who knows

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Through 4pm Thursday

Wants to have PDX start as snow Thursday morning, thinks the east winds will usher in colder air faster

6Z GFS Ensembles for Portland, WOW!

Massive difference in low placement between the GFS and EURO, who caves to who? OR/WA border verse northern Cali. I predict one or the other makes a massive move between tonight and tomorrow morning.

Regardless of where the low placements ultimately ends up i think its important to remember that in these setups the northern edge of the precip shield can often extend much further north than modeled too.

5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c.

Looks like the hills around town could be getting hammered for a couple hours as the cold slowly works its way down.