Joshua Lake Oswego

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro maps?

Still wet

7 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

But do they need it more than Joshua in Portland? According to his posts, it’s pretty much a desert down there now 

Yes, they need it more than we do here. It’s not a competition though. The entirety of Oregon and California needs much more rain. Models are looking very promising for the northern half of California and all of Oregon.

40 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall totals

The GEM is remarkably similar to the GFS.

26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall totals

It keeps going…

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Need a pipeline to ship all the water to directly to Joshua in Lake Oswego! 

Haha. Good idea. Or, it could just freakin’ rain here.

I have visited the Columbia River Gorge after some heavy rainfall and it’s just awesome. Same with Silver Falls State Park. I would love to see Snoqualmie Falls in its full splendor. 

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. Business as usual.

Don’t worry… the low will end up 300 miles north or west of where it is shown now. Cold rain at best for the Washington lowlands. 

14 minutes ago, Bonovox said:

Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but the Euro was recently upgraded. Last week if I remember correctly. I believe one of the parameters they were specifically predicting to improve was precipitation totals.

Well, it has performed horribly so far. It was advertising a soaking for everybody west of the Cascades tomorrow as recently as the 12z run yesterday. All other models had trended towards the bust long before. The Euro is finally now on board with the bust the past couple of runs.

7 hours ago, Phil said:

Is that a surprise to anyone?

The GFS called this weekend’s bust way before the Euro. In fact, all models did. The HRRR is the only holdout. 

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea it works in the summer and fall when it generally pretty dry. Come November, that hypothesis will not hold up. 

Perhaps. I actually think the 10th percentile is way too optimistic right now. The 12z EPS 10th percentile is at 2.47” in the next two weeks for PDX. The minimum of all 50 members is 1.11”. Median is 4.11”. 

I would put money on us staying below the 10th percentile if anyone is game. Theoretically, your odds are extremely good. 

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS pretty much washes out the front on Sunday up here... might stay dry that day as well in the Seattle area with a high around 60.

The next system that moves inland and brings more significant rain is not until day 9 on this run.  

You’re witnessing what has happened to Oregon for the past couple of years. Models tease and then take away. It’s always 7, 10, 14 days out. Very rarely comes to fruition. 
 

That’s why I have been saying to use the 10th percentile on the GFS/Euro ensembles for a realistic QPF forecast beyond a few days. I swear by it. 

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Rod Hill has spoken!

https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/rod-hill-winter-outlook-2021/283-dccdea0c-b84c-4889-b0b0-3f8522127cda

So, you’re saying it will be warm and wet?

5 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Is the GFS tryna come at the king?? Euro flinching 

I hate being right sometimes. 

15 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

What’s your bet on PDX rainfall next 7 days? I’m ready to buy low baby 

Ha. You make the bet this time. 

And, 10 day rainfall. How will we get any outdoor activities done?

And, next Sunday. 
 

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Saturday was not always a given up here.   Still right on the line.   We have months of rain ahead... there is nothing wrong with enjoying some nice weather when it comes our way.  

Looks like this won’t be the last sunny, warm weekend of fall. Next Saturday…

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We get least one nice weekend day for some October activities... darn!    

Saturday was always going to be sunny and warm. Forgive me for wanting rain when our entire state is in severe, extreme, or exceptional drought. 

Game over for this weekend. The GFS, ICON, NAM, and high-def GEM are trending drier. Most are bone dry. The Euro is the last holdout. It will either abruptly flip to a drier solution or gradually do it the next few runs.

It doesn’t matter if the models are wet in the mid/long-term if the verified amount is only a small fraction of the forecasted amount. 

This is either 3 or 4 busts in a row after the September overachievers. Probably about 20 out of the last 23 or so for Portland. 

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course now the 12Z ECMWF comes in totally different and much wetter.   

I just saw that. It won't happen, but holy sh*t. I love it.

2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 00z Euro operational bowed to the GFS and really backed down on the QPF for next week. The ensembles are quite a bit drier through the run too. This weekend is looking quite unimpressive. Maybe .25'' - .50'' for most of the lowlands from Eugene to Seattle. Just calling it like I see it. Vancouver Island is going to get absolutely hosed in the next 7-10 days. So close, but so far.

 

Or less than .25'' looking at the 12z GFS and ICON.

The 00z Euro operational bowed to the GFS and really backed down on the QPF for next week. The ensembles are quite a bit drier through the run too. This weekend is looking quite unimpressive. Maybe .25'' - .50'' for most of the lowlands from Eugene to Seattle. Just calling it like I see it. Vancouver Island is going to get absolutely hosed in the next 7-10 days. So close, but so far.

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Are you looking at Portland? 

Weird. I am using weather.us as I don’t have a pay subscription to any sites. They must be using the control instead of the mean for the GEFS. Or, I’m just an idiot. Both are possible. In any event, that makes a lot more sense. No way the GFS control is correct though. 

There is a huge rainfall discrepancy between the 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. The average for the GFS is lower than the single lowest member of the Euro. The single highest GFS member has half of the rainfall of the Euro average. This is over the full run.

Can’t recall a time seeing them so wildly different. A couple hundred miles difference in low placement makes all the difference. We know how this game works when rooting for snow. Too far north and it’s too warm. Too far south or west and it’s too dry.

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That trough over the weekend is looking pretty chilly. 

Yea, Sunday is looking like it could be a midnight high type of day. The 12z GFS brings back the rain on Sunday too.

The 6z GFS leaves us high and dry this weekend. The firehose is pointed right at Vancouver Island. If you look at the progression of the last 5 or so runs, the bullseye keeps moving north. It always does.