Joshua Lake Oswego

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It managed to drop to 50 here.  Today has been a gloom fest.

Ugly wall to wall sunshine day here. I’m very ready for consistently gloomy and wet weather. No sign that’s coming anytime soon. 

10 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z and 00z seem wet in the long range. The whining works again. 

It didn’t work unless it verifies. We’re talking >300 hours out. 

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Actually if you compare the 06z GFS on 9/30 to the 18z GFS on 9/30, since that was the date you used in your example, you can see it does swing wildly the other way. 1.6 for PDX on the 06z vs 4.1 on the 18z. But that's kind of the problem, isn't it? When your hopes and dreams of bountiful rainfall ride or die on 384hr precip maps you are bound to be disappointed often, especially when you mentally block the swings that happen in the opposite direction of your preconceived narrative.

It's just like when we all remind ourselves to not get worked up when the pepto starts showing up on 384hr snowfall maps (even though some of us still do). We know it will change countless more times before that date actually gets here. No point in lamenting how it "always gets taken away" when it inevitably does so.

Mother Nature will shake out how she wants to shake out and more often than not, things have a tendency to balance themselves out regardless of what the 384hr map says. Roll with the punches.

 

Really, it’s not the long-term that I’m talking about. Yes, I posted 16 day maps, but it’s the rug pulling in the short-term that I’m talking about. I am very aware of how increasingly inaccurate models are as the run date and forecast date spread grows. 

This last Thursday is an example of rug pulling. Next Tuesday (although the 18z Euro puts us in the “bullseye”. Yea right.) appears to be one. Next Sunday is another. Next Sunday is pushing the reliable timeframe a bit. I know. 

Admittedly, the two strong September events over-performed. That is extremely rare of late. At one point , I had counted about 15 under-performers in a row for PDX. 
 
I can guarantee that nobody on this forum cares more about my area’s precipitation than me. That’s what I focus on in model riding. It genuinely affects my emotions. I see mostly every run of every model that I have access to. So, I am not speaking based on lack of information. Lack of bias, knowledge, and objectiveness are certainly debatable.

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol we just had like a really wet pattern I’m not sure what the concern is more rain will come it’ll be just fine we’re headed into fall. This would be like complaining about the lack of snowfall coming up over the next week on the models immediately after it just dumped a foot of snow during a winter event. 

I warned everybody in my introductory post that I love to complain about rain. Rain is my thing. I want moss, mushrooms, and mud. Yes, I need to move to SE Alaska.

29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Comparing 16 day maps for just about anything will help the pessimistic go all pessimisty.

Why is it rarely the opposite? Why couldn’t 1” turn into 5”? The reason is because the vast majority of lows in our region end up north of where they are initially forecasted or they lose their oomph as the swing on in. 
 

The CPC gives us a high probability of above average precipitation in both the 6-10 day timeframe and the 8-14 day. They will have to change that whenever they update their products. 

Here’s why I am always pessimistic about rain. We lost 3-4” in the last 48 hours. 

Poof goes Tuesday’s rain. Friday’s already went poof a few runs ago. Next Sunday is fizzling out too. Looks chilly though. Overall, looks cool and dry after the weekend. 

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Ehhh I’d say it’s 50/50 on the forum don’t think there’s really a majority that like or dislike windstorms. They’re fascinating for sure but the damage afterwards sucks. 

Count me as a windstorm disliker. There are many large Douglas Firs on my property and adjacent ones that are within a few dozen feet of my home. I take a lot of pride in my landscape too and 100 pound branches falling from 50 feet up are not good for whatever they land on. My heart gets pumping whenever the wind really gets howling. 

6 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

We're in denial

Ha. The first stage of grief.

Anybody peep the back to back to back to back 105 degree days at PDX on the 00z GFS? 

Game over for rain in western Oregon for at least the next 10 days. If we’re very lucky, we will break the dry streak with a few hundredths of an inch. 

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX will end July with one day of 95+ degree heat with none in sight at the moment. Horrific.

PDX will end July with 26 days above average and 5 below. Blissful. 

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

18z basically shows a non event.

2018.....

Yep. Poof goes the rain. I figured the models would wait at least a couple of more days before pulling the rug.

8 hours ago, Jesse said:

Tonight’s on track to be one of the Portland area’s warmest nights on record without trying all that hard.

73 degree low at PDX. Disgusting. 

Looks like we will have at least 13 straight days above 85 before we might have a few days of near-normal temps before another roast. I am far from convinced that late-next week’s low will come to fruition.

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Atleast there’s some rain down there too. It beats another heatwave. I’d say there’s a good chance these totals come down a bit as we approach the event but hopefully it’s close to what we’re seeing now. 

Yes, I would be thrilled with 75 and cloudy at this point. 

I would put money on the low ending up either further north than currently forecasted or stalling out before it gets to us though. Hard not to be pessimistic after the spring and summer we have had.

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is on board with the trough over the PNW one week from today... optimism for meaningful rain is growing.  

 

Looks amazing for BC and Washington. 

Next Friday would be about 40 degrees cooler than today for some spots if this verifies...

PDX barely eeked out a below 70 low. 69 for a period of a couple minutes. Tonight could be warmer. 

6 hours ago, Bonovox said:

 

00Z Euro was better in the long range.

Here's what we know will actually happen. Oregon will be spared of the horrible, horrible rain.

Shockingly, the GFS is bowing down to the Euro on the 00z. Highs around 90 or above at PDX through the end of next workweek. Rain is gone too. 

The Euro is only 25 degrees warmer than the GFS a week from now

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro better not be trolling us in the 7-10 day range. Shows some honest to god rain!

It's well aligned with the GFS. Unfortunately, western Oregon gets the shaft per usual. 

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

0z GFS is a definite improvement for those looking for a fairly quick and decisive end to the heat.

And some precip chances.

Looks amazing for Vancouver Island.
 

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Or not...