Joshua Lake Oswego

ICON looking almost identical to the 12z though 100 hours.

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Rod Hill is the best.  He always keeps a level head and never forecasts with his heart.  That's what I love about him, always even keel and never jumps to conclusions.  Solid all the way around.

I have to assume you’re joking. I love Rod’s personality, but his forecasts…

Ok, guys. I wasn’t being literal about Mark not missing. He’s human. He very rarely does though for an overall pattern. 

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

He predicted the Salem area would get to 48F on the day it snowed like another foot in Dec 2008.

Ok… he very rarely misses. He is easily the best on-air meteorologist in the PNW. 

6 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Mark does this every time a week out. Sometimes he’s right sometimes he’s wrong. Nobody knows yet. Not even Lord Mark Nelsen.

Mark really doesn’t miss. 

3 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The high-res model is 9 km resolution and each of the ensemble members are 18 km resolution according to: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support

I thought I read somewhere that the member resolution will be increasing soon to 11km or something like that

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Looks like the OP is quite a bit warmer than the mean so far.  Also, does anyone know how degraded the resolution is on EPS compared to OP? 

 

Edit, just realized this was for the 6z

The EPS has a cold bias.

EPS is quite a bit warmer than the 00z run so far

9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Don't worry about the snow maps this far out but

I'm not. Just messing around and pointing it out.

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow... and this is going into record setting cold.   

Portland snow doughnut

23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This is not breaking news, but delayed is rarely a good thing with these things.

Exactly. Remember when late this week was going to be crazy cold? Remember when this weekend was? Me neither.

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

-10 in Vancouver lol

 

-50 in Wyoming. Not gonna happen.

The GEM is whettt

The ICON was crap

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Yay for living 10 miles south of Salem!

In my experience, the Clackamas county line is the dividing line for gorge outflow influence when it comes to snowfall. South of it and you get the shaft. 

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS is colder yet with a major low level blast. That's getting very cold combined with east winds it would be bitter.

Crazy that the operational is the single warmest member for a lot of the run.

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z UKMET looks like a compromise between the GEM and Euro. Sends the mother lode a lot further west but appears to be pivoting right over us through the end.

 

This is only 6 days out. Almost 3’ of snow in one day for the lucky winner.
 

 

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Should I be complaining still?

No, but I should be…

 

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon isn’t bad. 

Sub 500 to Seattle is pretty crazy 

80 for LA on Christmas Day?

Look at the huge temp contrast of southerly flow vs east winds right around Portland. 

 

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end.

Exactly. For us, we have to assume that any arctic air will stall out north of us regardless of what is modeled based on recent experience. Fake cold through the gorge would likely be colder and more difficult to scour out before at least an overrunning event. 

I genuinely admire some of your persistent optimism. I mean that sincerely. 

12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM ensembles are totally on board with the operational. Ish 

Soooooo close

Just 13 days out