Joshua Lake Oswego

Just 10 days outᵗᵐ

39/37 here. Good luck, Washingtonians.

25 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Looks like Mark has given up on any snow between PDX and Eugene. 

Mark doesn’t miss. His word means more to me than any meteorologist (local or otherwise), the NWS, or anybody else. 

31 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

ICON is downright depressing...

Not if you live in Portland and like rain.

30 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

We don't trust the German 

You guys really need to stop sleeping on the ICON. 

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Euro is trash. GFS is the new king! 

ICON is the ace.

Good luck, Washingtonians. I would like my chances if I were you. Hopefully this doesn’t end up like December of last year when the arctic boundary hung up just north of the state border and we ended up with unimpressive temps and a few flakes. 

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Absolutely nasty system on the 5th 

As much as I whine about lack of precipitation, I will absolutely take dry and dusty over that crap.

9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Hmmm...

• Slight risk of heavy snow for some low elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Sun, Dec 1-4

If this goes anything like the ‘’way-too-far-in-the-future’’ risk of heavy precipitation memo they issued last time, we can put a fork in it now.

1 hour ago, Nov1985 said:

Yes, modified arctic front at 200 hours which is lala for GFS... Will it be there at 100 hours? We've seen this movie before. 

Just 10 days out ᵗᵐ

2 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Imagine that in the lowlands. 

I can’t even imagine .25’’ of rain at this point.

I think December’s title should be “just 10 days out”. 

28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Nada, nothing, zilch for the southwestern US.

And a lot of us. The ICON led the way as usual. PDX has a very real shot of 3 weeks without rain. In November. That would obliterate the previous record.

Came home to a Douglas Fir branch through the roof and into the bathroom. 
 

37 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we got down to 28F for freeze #7.

No freezes for me yet. 32 is my lowest.

8 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The ICON and GFS really neutered Tuesday’s rain that was once Monday’s rain that was once Sunday’s rain. 

Essentially completely dry now for the next 10 days on the 6z. The Euro backed WAY down for Oregon at least too.
 

I swear we live in the only place on Earth where models consistently overestimate QPF by orders of magnitude. If a substantial precipitation event was modeled within 5 days for So. Cal, the east coast, the Midwest… wherever, it would happen. Here… it needs to be within 48 hours to make sure it won’t go 500 miles north or completely fizzle out. 

The ICON and GFS really neutered Tuesday’s rain that was once Monday’s rain that was once Sunday’s rain. 

BC is going to get absolutely hosed mid/late next week. An AR looks to set up shop and be close to stationary for about 60 hours. Extreme NW Washington should fare well too, but most of Oregon and Washington will get the leftover slops as it peters out.

The precipitation king (ICON) is a lot more bullish than the GFS for early next week. Let’s see who wins.

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Where do you see rain and mountain snow for Thanksgiving?  

 

On the worthless GEM

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Sitting at 40 degrees after a breezy night. DRY!

Yea, 41 here across I-5. Looking like quite a mess in my yard. Some decent-sized Douglas Fir limbs down. Needles and small branches everywhere. Hearing bombs on the roof every few minutes. Not looking forward to walking around the whole yard when it's light out. To think... we have a few more days of this crap.

What do you consider to be a rainy day? >= .01''? >= .10''? >= .25''? Let's look at the stats for the past 5 months at PDX. This will be from June 19th - November 19th since there is no chance of rain through at least Saturday.

Days with .01'' or more = 22 

Days with .10'' or more = 14

Days with .25'' or more = 7

So, depending on your definition of a rainy day, we have had 7-22 rainy days in the past 153 days or 42% of the year.

The 00z suite is absolute trash. These past 5 months have been worse than a worst-case scenario for those of us that like cool, wet, dreary weather. 

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhh 

Ridiculous. They need to see the 18z.

3 hours ago, The Blob said:

Down to 34

Still 37 here