westMJim

IF and that is a big IF at this time but if that precip were it verify that looks to be a lot of clippers. We shall see. As some long range guesses are hitting at a lot of east coast storms.

Here is a winter guess from a Cleveland Ohio TV station. By: Mark Johnson CLEVELAND — Get your warmest coats and your snow shovels ready! That's according to News5 Chief Meteorologist Mark Johnson, who revealed his Winter 2019-20 Forecast on Tuesday. Johnson said the odds favor a snowier and colder winter season for all of northern Ohio. "My research shows that the current ocean-atmospheric conditions around the globe closely resemble those back in 1995, 2004 & 2013," said the 30-year forecasting veteran. The winters that followed in those years averaged colder than normal and snowier than normal across our area. The Winter of 2004-05 saw Cleveland measure its largest seasonal snowfall ever recorded - 117.9 inches. Akron and Canton shoveled 60 inches. Mansfield measured 86 inches. The Winter of 2013-14 is well-known for its above-average snowfall and its bone-chilling cold! Major reporting cities around our area saw temperatures drop well below zero between 10 and 14 days that season. Brrrr.

Yesterday the H/L at GRR was 51/41. And 0.1” of rain fall was reported. At this time, it is 45 both here at my house and at the airport. The official low at GRR was 41 and the low here at my house was 38. I had 0.07” of rain in off and on lake effect rain showers yesterday. For today the average H/L is 60/41 the record high was 84 set in 1947 and the record low of 22 was set in 1972. Last year the H/L was 55/27.

Picked up 0.43" of rain here at my house. The current temperature here is 45 with cloudy skies and a light mist falling. Yesterdays H/L was 60/34 the departure for October is now at +0.7. The average H/L for today is 60/42. The record high is 83 in 1947 and the record low is 25 in 1944. Last year the H/L was 55/37.

Here is the latest color report 2019 https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/current-season-midwest-us/129-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-current-season/897-mw-foliage-report-11-2019 still running later than last year and other years past. https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/midwest-us-2018-reports/175-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2018/838-mw-foliage-report-12-2018

Here at my house there was the first frost of the season this AM. I had a low of 32 here, the official low at GRR was a warmer 34. The frost last night was way too light to do much if any damage to any plant life still growing. The H/L yesterday at GRR was 50/35. For today the average H/L is 61/42. The record high is 85 set in 1947 and the record low is 23 set in 1944. Last year the H/L was 50/39.

The overnight low here at my house was 37 however the official low at GRR was 42. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 50/44. At this time the mean for October at Grand Rapids is 55.9° this is a departure of +1.8. For today the average H/L is 61/42. The record high is 83 set in 1975 and the record low is 27 set in 1939. Last year the H/L was 60/38 and that was the last time Grand Rapids seen a high of 60 or better until March 28th 2019 when the high reached 61.

I am sorry to say this but I ordered 4 new tires today at Belle Tire so with that in mind there should not be as much snow fall this winter.That kind of goes hand in hand with buying a snow blower or getting a plowing service always a good way to see less snow fall. Sorry about that for any one who loves a lot of snow.

Sorry for you lost of colors. LOL

Even with clear skies for part of the night the low here was just 44. At this time with cloudy skies the temperature is at 47

Due to Lake Michigan and clouds ect the official low at GRR was 41 and here at my house it was 42. The current temperature at both locations is now 42. At this time it looks like west Michigan will stay above 32 for at least the next week or more.

As I have stated before the site, I go to for much of my historical information is now down and at this time I am not sure for how long. However, at a different site (not as much nor as good of information) I did find this bit of useful information. So far this year (January to September) the mean at Grand Rapids is 51.7° the 30 year average is 52.2° for a departure of -0.5° At Detroit the mean this year is 53.6 the 30 year average is 53.4 for a difference of +0.2° down at Toledo the mean so far this year is 55.1° 30 year average is 53.4 for a difference of +1.3° and at Chicago the mean is 53.1 and the average is 53.2° for a difference of -0.1° So Toledo is the warmest to average so far this year.

As I have stated before the site, I use for much of my past weather data is down due some kind of budget issues (lack of money) The low at both my house and GRR last nigh was 48. The current temperature here at my house is now 58 with cloudy skies. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 70/43. For today the average H/L is 63/44. The record high was 85 set in 1949. The record low is 26 set in 1956. The warmest minimum is 63 set in 1954 and the coldest maximum is 40 set in 1906. Last year the H/L was 72/62.

The overnight low at my house and GRR was 43° Yesterdays H/L at Grand Rapids was 69/44. So far this month the mean at GRR is 57.8 and that is a departure of +2.7° For today the record high is 84 set just last year and the record low is 23 set in 1989. The warmest minimum was also set last year at 66, and the record coldest maximum is 43 set in 1990.

Anyone who is interested in when the first snow fall at “thousands of locations” here is a link to that site. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/history-first-snow-season-thousands-us-stations

This morning is a good example of how on clear calm nights the temperature can depend a lot on location. I have two sensors that I use. They are both 5’ off the ground and protected from the sun as best as I can provide (that affects daytime temperatures more than night time). Anyway I have one spot in my yard that generally reads colder then the other. (And yes I have swapped sensors to make sure that it was not the sensor reading differently). OK the official low at GRR this morning looks to be 50° but here at my yard the “warm” location had a low of 44.4° and the “cold” location had a low of 43.1° We will see how the low tomorrow morning goes.

It is a great sunny day with a mild temperature of 68 here at my house. I am sure this is later then usual but I am doing some yard work and now have put the cover on the ac unit so it is now shut down until late next spring. Well this short break is now over and it is now time to cut the grass as with all the rain it has really gown it the last few days.

Here at my house I recorded 0.15” of rain, it looks like the official rain fall at GRR will come in at 0.9”. With clear skies the current temperature here at my house is 54° The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 58/41. For today the average H/L is now down to 64/45. The record high is 87 set in 2007 and the record low is 28 set in 2003. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 2007 and the record coldest maximum is 43 set in 1964. Last year the H/L was 71/55.

The H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 58/43. The low at Grand Rapids this morning looks to be 41, The low here at my house was 40. At this time with clear skies the temperature here is now at 42°. For today the average H/L is 65/45. The record high is 85 set in 1946 and the record low is 29 set in 2004. The warmest minimum is 65 in 2013 and the coldest maximum is 45 set in 1935. Last year the H/L was 58/43.

Finally, clear blue skies here. The low here at my house was 44 and the official low was 47 at the airport. That official low of 47 is the coldest low so far this fall and the coldest low since May 21st Yesterday the H/L was 65/51 with 0.68” of rain fall. So far the total at GRR this month is 2.45” For today the average H/L is now down to 65/46. The record high is 87 set in 1951. The record low is 30 set in 1965. The warmest minimum is 65 set in 2013 and the record coldest maximum is 42 set in 1935. Last year the H/L was 80/44.

September 2019 was very warm across the area and most of Michigan. It was not a much above average the more north one went. Here is the September 2019 mean and the ranking across the major reporting locations. Grand Rapids 66.4° 8th warmest. Muskegon 66.4° 5th warmest. Kalamazoo 68.7° 2nd warmest. Lansing too much missing data. Detroit 68.6° 8th warmest. Flint 66.6° 5th warmest. Saginaw 65.4° 12th warmest. Alpena 60.2° 18th warmest. Sault Ste Marie 29.4° 17th warmest. And Marquette 57.4° but there it was just the 63rd warmest on record.

For Toledo the average snow fall is around 35.0” but note there is a lot of missing snow fall data. The most snow in a season for Toledo is 86.3” in 2013/14 in 2nd place is 73.1” in 1977/78. The most snow in one month is 40.2” in January of 2014. To your east at Cleveland the average snow fall amount is 52.0” the most in one season there is 117.9” in 2004/05. The most for any one month is 42.8” in January of 1978 with 40.9” in January of 2009 in 2nd place. For Jaster the nearest ot his home town that keeps records in Kalamazoo and the average there is 64.6” (note they also have many missing years of data) the most in a season at Kazoo is 122.2” in 1966/67 the most in any month is 54.0” in January of 2003. And here where I live in Grand Rapids the average is 75.0” the most for any season is 132.0” in 1951/52 the most in any one moth is 59.0” in December 2000 As for the so called :Big Dog" I would agree with Jaster that 15" would be one but I would think that 12" would be a starting point. And both a 12 and 15" storms are rare. BTW Toledo can get lake enhanced snow with a NE wind. And yes WSW and depend on the location and to some degree the time of year

Here at my house I recorded 0.63” of rain from 7AM Yesterday to 7AM today in the last two day the total here is 2.72” and in the last 7 days 5.10” of rain had fallen here at my house. So far there has not been any flooding here but that is a lot of rain. At this time light rain is still falling and the current temperature is at 51° Yesterdays H/L was 70 (reached just after midnight) and the low was 51. The official rain fall at GRR (midnight to midnight) was 1.10” and for the month of October so far the total at GRR is 1.76” For today the average H/L is 66/46 the record high is 85 set in 1953. The record low is 23 set in 1974. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 2005 and the coldest maximum is 46 set in 1995. Last year the H/L was a very warm 83/56. Latest fall color report https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/current-season-midwest-us/129-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-current-season/885-mw-foliage-report-7-2019 Last year at about the same time https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/midwest-us-2018-reports/175-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2018/826-mw-foliage-report-8-2018 and for a comparison 2013 https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/midwest-us-2013-reports/134-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2013/476-mw-foliage-report-1-2019 Here just NW of Grand Rapids there is some color (more yellow then red) and some leaf drop.

A very wet night here. At 7 am I reported 2.09” of rain. At this time it is still raining here, the temperature has dropped from 67 at 6:30 and is now at 63° with a DP of 63 with that rain that is falling. New record warmest minimum set at Grand Rapids and Muskegon. The low for yesterday at GRR of 69 and the low of 68 set new warmest minimums for both locations for October 1st The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 77/69 and there was 0.67” of rain fall up to midnight. For today the average H/L is 66/46. The record high is 87° set in 1971 and the record low is 27 set in 1974. The record warmest minimum is 63 set in 1971 and the coldest maximum is 44 set in 1974. Last year the H/L was 65/56.

Yesterday H/L at Grand Rapids was 84/57. That high of 84 is the 2nd warmest reading for any September 30th at Grand Rapids. So far the low here at GRR has been 69 and if it stay above 69 until midnight we will set a new record warm minimum for October 1st For today the average H/L is now down to 66/47. The record high is 89 set way back in 1897 and the record low is 27 set way back in 1899. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 1971 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1974. Last year the H/L was 57/47.