westMJim

Yesterday H/L at Grand Rapids was 84/57. That high of 84 is the 2nd warmest reading for any September 30th at Grand Rapids. So far the low here at GRR has been 69 and if it stay above 69 until midnight we will set a new record warm minimum for October 1st For today the average H/L is now down to 66/47. The record high is 89 set way back in 1897 and the record low is 27 set way back in 1899. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 1971 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1974. Last year the H/L was 57/47.

The month of September was a very warm one. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 66.4° that was good for a departure of +3.6. And that is good for the 11th warmest September on record at Grand Rapids. The high for the month was 88 on the 11th and the low was 48 on the 5th there were 10 days with highs in the 80’s 12 days with highs in the 70’s and 8 days with a high in the 60’s it was a wet month with 7.32” of rain fall and that was good for the 10th wettest September on record. At Muskegon the mean for the month was 66.4° and that was a departure of +4.3. September 2019 was the 3rd warmest of record at Muskegon. The High for the month was 85° on the 11th and the low was 47 on the 5th There was 5.85” of rain at Muskegon. At Kalamazoo the mean was a whopping 68.7° and that was +6.3 above average. And it was the 2nd warmest September on record at Kalamazoo. The high for the month was a hot 92 on the 11th and the low was 50 on the 5th There was 4.11” of reported rain fall. To our east there was too much missing data at Lansing to come up with a summery for the month.

I have a temperature of 83 here with a DP of 72 for a very warm end of September. Will have to see what GRR comes up at the top of the next hour. The last reading there was 80° This is the 12th time the temperature has reached 80 or better on this date since 1892

Just got back from my walk. At this time it feels and smells like a warm winter's day in south Florida. The current temperature here at my house is 76 with a dew point of 72. So it is warm and very humid.

The current temperature here at my house is now 57. While the official high here at GR yesterday was a reported 61 (just before midnight) it did not get out of the 50's here at my hose and has been 56 or 57 since yesterday afternoon. it is now just 66 in the house.

Yesterdays official reported high at GRR was 61° this was reported just before midnight last night. While most of west Michigan did not get out of the 50’s. That reported H/L of 61/53 still was the first below average day at GRR in 19 days. And the coolest high at Grand Rapids since May 21st. The mean for the month of September at GR is now 66.2 and it looks like GR will end the month with as the 12th warmest September of record. For today the average H/L is now down to 67/47. The record high for today is 85 set in 1971 and the record low is 30 set in 1993. The warmest minimum is 64 set in 1905 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1899. Last year the H/L was 50/42.

Here at my house I now am at 0.60" of rain for today. We will have to see how the temperature ends up between now and midnight, But so far the high here at Grand Rapids looks to be 56. If it stays below 60 up to midnight this will be the coldest maximum here at GR since May 20th. However don't look now but there are a lot of mid 80's to low 90's south of the warm front.

Here are the links to the fall color reports so far this year https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/129-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-current-season/884-mw-foliage-report-6-2019 and last year at this time https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/175-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2018/825-mw-foliage-report-7-2018 In my area there is some spotty color and some trees are now losing their leaves

The mean for September at Grand Rapids is now at 66.7°. With just 3 more days to go it looks very much like this year will end up being one of the warmest September’s on record. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 69/50 and that was the 18th day in a row of above average temperatures. For today the average H/L is 68/48. The record high is 86 set in 1905. The record low is 27 set in 1991. The warmest minimum is 69 set in 1971 and the coldest maximum is 42 set in 1912. Last year the H/L was 61/45.

Here in Grand Rapids we got some lightning (not as much as to the south of here) and I recorded 1.68" of rain fall.

The H/L here at Grand Rapids yesterday was 68/50 while it felt cool that was still above average for the day and that was the 17 day in a row of above average mean here at Grand Rapids. The mean for the month is now at 67.0 and that should drop over the next couple of days. For today the average H/L is now at 68/48. The record high for today is 86 set in 1946 and the record low is 29 set in 1989. The warmest minimum is 65 set in 1973. And the coldest maximum is 47 set in 1942. Last year the H/L was 65/46. The temperature here fell into to 48 at my house (52 at GRR) before going up over night but it was cool in the house this morning so for the first time this fall season I did indeed turn the heat on.

Yesterday’s H/L at Grand Rapids was 74/63 GR is now at 16 days in a row of above average temperatures. For the month the mean at GRR is now at 67.3° and at this time that is good for the 6th warmest September on record. That should go down in the next couple of days and we will see where we are at the end of the month. For today the average H/L is 69/49. The record high for today is 92 set in 2017 and today is the end of that heat wave of September 2017. That 92 is the 2nd latest 90 or better day at Grand Rapids as there is only one more later day with a 90 or better reading and that is 93 on the 29th in 1953. The record low is 30 set in 1947. The warmest minimum is 68 in 1920 and the coldest maximum is 50 set in 1942. Last year the H/L was 66/48

There were 6 days in a row of record high temperatures in 2017. There will be one more tomorrow. After a high of 87 on September 20 the next 6 days all had record highs of 95,95,96,94,91 and 92. The month of September 2017 was the warmest September in Grand Rapids history. Also not I had to change the H/L for yesterday as it was 75/65.

Grand Rapids mean temperature for September so far is 67.3°. The next 6 days will determine where this September ends up but it looks like we will end up is the top 15 or better. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 75/55 and that is the 15 day in a row of above average temperatures. For today the average H/L is now down to 69/49. The record high is 91 set in 2017 and the record low is 29 set in 1947. The warmest minimum is 70 set in 1931 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 2001. Last year the H/L was 80/65’

Here at Grand Rapids there now has been 14 days in a row of above average temperatures and for the month of September 17 of the first 23 days have been warmer then average. Yesterday the H/L was 70/56. For today the average H/L is 70/49 (note the coldest it has been so far this September has been 48°) The record high for today is 94 set in 2017 and the record low is 29 set in 1976. The warmest minimum is 69 set in 1930 and the record coldest maximum is 46 set in 1942. Last year the H/L was 72/50. It looks like the overnight low at GRR was 55 but that was 6° warmer then here at my house where the low dropped down to 49°

The H/L yesterday at GRR was 80/68. That 68 sets a new record minimum for the date. The official rain fall yesterday at GRR was 2.56”. Here at my house just NW of Grand Rapids I recorded just 1.43” so the rain was much heaver to my SE. For today the average H/L is 70/50 the record high was a hot 96 in 2017 and the record low is 28 set in 1974. The warmest minimum is 66 set in 2017. And the record coldest maximum is 49 set in 1928. Last year the H/L was 71/45. The timing of yesterdays rain fall is one of the issues I have with the CoCoRaHS reporting times. For CoCoRaHS the standard reporting time is 7 AM give or take but the NWS their daily report is from midnight to midnight so that yesterday my CoCoRaHS report was 0.35” for Saturday and then 1.08” for Sunday. And the official report at GRR was 2.56” for Sunday and just a trace for Saturday.

Here at my house I have recorded 0.35” of rain overnight. But, the bigger story is the rain to come. And so far the overnight low at Grand Rapids so far looks to be just 70 (68 here at my house) if the temperature stays at or above 67 until midnight that will set a new warmest minimum for September 22. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 85/64. GR has now seen 12 days in a row of above average temperatures. The record high for today is 95 set in 2017. The record low is 33 set in 1976. The current warmest minimum is 67 set in 1931 and the record coldest maximum is 50 set in 1995. Last year the H/L was 65/46.

I Just got back from my walk and while it was nice and cool at the start it got warm and very humid by the end. Yesterdays H/L at GRR was 83/61 and for the month Grand Rapids is now has a mean of 66.9°. The next 10 days will determine where this September ends up but at this time GR is running as the 8 warmest in GR history. The record high for today is 95 set in 2017 and the record low is 32 set in 1962. The warmest minimum is a very warm 76 set in 1931 (it must have been humid that day?) the coldest maximum was a cool 49 in 1913. Last year the H/L was 79/55

I have not had a chance to go thru a year by year to see how they did but they did get January and February 2014 right. They did get 2009 2003 and 2007 wrong. But remember the statement that got me to look for their archive was "I'm being completely serious when I ask this question. In the last 10 years, have they ever predicted below normal temperatures anywhere? Surely they have? But I don't recall seeing it"

Here is the latest report this year https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/current-season-midwest-us/129-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-current-season/877-mw-foliage-report-4-2019 and last year https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/midwest-us-2018-reports/175-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2018/819-mw-foliage-report-5-2018

The H/L yesterday at GRR was 84/57 that 84 is tied for the 14th warmest September 19th in Grand Rapids history. The overnight low at GRR was 61 if it stays above 61 until midnight that will make September 19th 2019 the 16th warmest minimum for the date. For today the average H/L is 71/51 the record high is 90 set in 1931 and the record low is 33 set in 1956. The warmest minimum for today is 69 set in 1978 and the coldest maximum is 54 set in 1927. Last year the H/L was 83/65.

The links I posted last night did not work so here is the link to the CPC archive site https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/llarc.ind.php For seeing times when the CPC did have blue on their maps looks for the outlooks in past cold periods such as January 2014 and July 2009 ect

Here is the CPC's updated guess for October https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ The fall season as a whole https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 November to December https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 The winter season https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3 And January to March https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4 We will see how this plays out. One year that I have read the winter of 2005/06 was used as a analog winter if that is the case we could see a front loaded leading to a warm January winter.

Grand Rapids now has had 9 days in a row of above average temperatures and today will be the 10th. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 81/56. The over night low at GRR was 58, the low here at my house was 56. For today the average H/L is 72/51. The record high is 91 set in 1908 the record low is 36 set in 1979. The warmest minimum is 68 set in 1965 and the coldest maximum is 54 set in 1991. Last year the H/L was 79/58