westMJim

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 71/40 there was a trace of rainfall. The sun was out 85% of the possible time and the highest wind speed was 19 MPH out of the SW.  For today the average H/L is 44/26 the record high of 80 was set in 2012 the record low of 0 was set in 1895. The wettest and most snow fall of 0.79” that fell as 10.5” of snow was in 1904. 1904 also had the most snow on the ground with 11” Last year the H/L was 37/21 there was a trace of snowfall and 2” was on the ground.

With yesterday’s high of 71 it was the 1^st time there have been back to back days of 70 or better in March since 2012. Here in MBY I recorded 0.06” of rainfall overnight and the low was a warm for March 50 that 50 is the current temperature here in MBY.

Some weather history in southern lower Michigan

1990: A spell of record warm weather continues across Lower Michigan with temperatures in the 70s. Lansing hits 74 degrees during a string of four straight days in the 70s.

1993: The Superstorm of 1993 dumps three to four feet of snow across the Appalachians and draws down record-cold arctic air across Lower Michigan. High temperatures struggle to reach the lower 20s with gusty winds making it feel even colder.

 2017, a clipper brought widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation to SE Michigan. With the easterly wind off of Lake Erie, lake enhancement led to a small area of 3 to 6 inches in the Detroit Metro area. Thousands of area residents were still without power during this event due to the record March 8th wind storm a few days prior.

 1990, the overnight temperature dropped to only 59 degrees in Flint, which is the record maximum low temperature for the day. This was also the second day in a string of four days (March 12-15) that record maximum low temperatures were set.

Across the USA

1953,  An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. 17 people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

1990,Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska during the day and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one that tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The F5 tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars in damage along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a lifespan of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska, injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars in damage during its three-hour lifespan.

Yesterday was another very warm day with a H/L of 70/44. There was no rainfall the sun was out 93% of the time. The highest wind speed was 39 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 43/26 the record high of 75 was set in 1990 the record low of 3 was set in 2014. The most rain fall of 1.06” fell in 2006 the most snowfall of 3.6” fell in 1998 the most snow on the ground was 11” in 2014 and 1978. Last year the H/L was 30/23 and there was 2.8” of snowfall.

The official H/L yesterday was 61/29 there was no rain/snowfall. The highest wind gust was 44 MPH out of the SW. The sun was out 91% of the time. For today the average H/L is 43/26 the record high of 76 was set in 1990 the record low of 2 was set in 1948 and 1993. The most rainfall of 2.35” fell in 1902 the most snowfall of 3.2” fell in 1923. The most snow on the ground was 11” in 2014 and 1978. Last year the H/L was 32/26 there was 0.9” of snowfall.

The warm temperatures so far this spring has everything about a month ahead of schedule. I now have crocuses and daffodils in bloom. There are also many trees with buds on them. We will have to see how this will play out in the days ahead.

On 3/10/2024 at 12:16 PM, jaster220 said:

At some point it must've flipped warm tho. I remember very warm Lake Michigan water that August all the way north of Petoskey, and that takes some doing. For the spring months, I do remember the 10" snowstorm in Flint on or about the equinox in March. After that I draw a blank until August, lol

In 1983 after a warm start to March, at Grand Rapids April had a departure from average of -5.0, May -6.5, June -1.3, July+1.9, August +1.1 and September -1.1. At Green Bay April had a departure of -3.8, May-7.7, June-1.9, July +2.1, August +2.1 and September -1.2. I am not sure what the water temperatures on Lake Michigan were that year. And this site does not go back that far.

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistics/average-surface-water-temperature-glsea/

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1948: Arctic air prevails with high temperatures in the teens and low temperatures near zero. Muskegon sets a record low of 2 degrees.

 1946, the last snowfall of the 1946 season was recorded in Detroit and stands as the earliest date for the last snowfall in spring.

Across the USA

1888, The Great Blizzard of 1888 paralyzed the east coast from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine on March 11 through the 14^th. The blizzard dumped as much as 55 inches of snow in some areas, and snowdrifts of 30 to 40 feet were reported. An estimated 400 people died from this blizzard.

1953,  An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. Seventeen people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 39/29 there was a trace of snowfall. The sun was out 30% of the time the highest wind gust was 36 MPH out of the NW. For today the average H/L is 42/25 the record high of 71 was set in 1973 and 1971 the record low of 1 was set in 1895. The most rainfall of 0.80” fell in 2010 the most snowfall was 6.7” in 1950 the most on the ground was 13” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 38/22 and there was 2” of snow on the ground. It is much colder here in MBY then the official reading at the airport. At GRR it is 31 while here in my yard I only have 22.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 47/30 there was 0.20” of rainfall and a trace of snowfall. The highest wind gust was 29 MPH out of the W. There was 7% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 42/25 the record high of 69 was set in 1894 and the record low of3 was set in 1972. The wettest was 0.68” that also had 2.9” of snowfall. The most snow on the ground was 16” in 2024. Last year had the record snow fall of 8.7” and the H/L was 37/29.

Along with the time change the weather also changed and for the 1st time this month there is a trace of snow on the ground. The overnight low was 29 and the current temperature is 30.

The 1st 9 days of March 2024 are now the 2nd warmest for the start of March. The mean here for the 1st 9 days of March was 46.0 that is 2nd only to March 1983 when the 1st 9 days had a mean of 48.5.

After the first 7 days March 2024 is the 2nd warmest start to any March at Grand Rapids. The mean after 7 days in 47.2 that is 2nd only to 1983 that year the 1st 7 days had a mean of 51.4. The highest so far this March is 70 in 1983 it reached 72 on March 3rd The winter of 1983 had a very strong El Nino that flipped to a weak La Nina that fall.  In 1983 April, May and June were all cooler than average with April being -5.0 below average and May being -6.5 below average.

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1943: Grand Rapids plummets to 13 below zero, the coldest ever recorded in March there. This caps a very cold period during the first ten days of the month, where four days had lows at or below zero at Grand Rapids.

2000: Temperatures soar into the upper 70s across Lower Michigan, with some places hitting 80 degrees. The 78 degrees at Grand Rapids is a record high for the date and for so early in the season.

2014: Severe and prolonged cold weather during the winter brought record ice coverage to Lake Michigan by early March. Ice coverage peaked at 93.29 percent on this date, just edging the record of 93.1 percent set in the winter of 1977.

2017: A powerful low-pressure center moving through southern Canada brings winds gusting over 60 mph across Lower Michigan for much of the day. Winds reach 64 mph at Grand Rapids. The winds cause millions of dollars in damage and large-scale power outages. Two people were killed when a tree fell on their vehicle while they were driving on M-115 in Clare County.

On March 8, 2018, a long-duration accumulating snow came to an end as a slow-moving storm moved through the region. When it was finally over, accumulations approached one foot in Huron, Lapeer, and Sanilac Counties. A peak measurement of 14″ was taken in Cass City in Tuscola County.

Also on March 8, 2017, ideal high wind conditions took shape under perfectly sunny skies. Strong winds developed early Wednesday morning and intensified steadily into the afternoon. Widespread wind gusts in excess of 60 mph were recorded, including 68 mph in Detroit and Saginaw and 61 mph in Flint. The power outage footprint grew steadily through the day eventually leaving approximately 1,160,000 customers statewide without power. Final estimates indicate approximately half a billion dollars in damage.

Also on March 8, 2000, the temperature rose to 80 degrees in Flint, a record for the date and a tie for the 5th warmest maximum temperature for the month of March in Flint.

Across the US

1909,  The town of Brinkley, Arkansas, was struck by an estimated F4 tornado, which killed 49 people. The tornado, which was two-thirds of a mile wide, destroyed 860 buildings. Entire families were killed as houses were completely swept away by the storm.

1989,  While Arctic cold gripped the northeastern U.S., unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southwestern states. Albany, New York, reported a record low of 2 degrees below zero. Tucson, Arizona, reported a record high of 90 degrees

2000, An F1 tornado traveled a short distance across Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the evening hours. The tornado injured 16 people.

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The latest Euro Weeklies showing a lot of high latitude blocking and a slow start to Spring.  This may not be good for many of the southern members as trees are budding out like it's early April in my area.  After next weeks big warm up the pattern looks to cool dramatically as a big ridge develops over the west.  500mb flow from March 17th through April 16th.

I would not be surprised if April, May and June are all cooler than average. In 1983 a winter with a strong El Nino that flipped to a weak La Nina April, May and June were all below average. 

The official H/L yesterday was 48/31 there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 25 MPH out of the SE. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 41/25 the record high of 78 was set in 2000 the record low of -13 was set in 1943 the wettest was in 1942 with 1.02” of that 1.9” was snowfall. The most snow fall was 4.5” in 1931. Last year the H/L was 44.24

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1908: After heavy snow in February, heavy rains and warmer conditions set in, setting the stage for a disastrous flood. The Kalamazoo River flooded the town of Albion when the Homer Dam broke around 3 p.m. By midnight, the bridges surrounding the town were underwater. Six buildings in Albion collapsed.

1999: Arctic air and several inches of fresh snow on the ground combine to drop temperatures to a record low of 13 below zero at Lansing.

2000: Temperatures reach the 70s during a record early season warm spell. Grand Rapids hits 72 degrees and Lansing 74 degrees.

 2000, the temperature rose to 75 degrees in Flint and 73 degrees in Saginaw. These are the earliest 70-degree days recorded in the cities of Flint and Saginaw.

1997, The worst was finally over for states hit hard by the flooding Ohio River. The river crested on the 6th at Louisville, Kentucky, 15 feet above flood stage, after topping out at nearly 13 feet at Cincinnati, Ohio, and more than 7 feet at Huntington, West Virginia.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/35 there was no rainfall. The sun was out 82% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 31 MPH out of the NE. For today the average H/L is up to 41/24 the record high of 72 was set in 2000. The record low of -3 was set in 1986. The wettest was 1.37” on 1903 the most snowfall of 5.2” fell in 1935. The most snow on the ground was 19” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 44/27 and there was a trace of snowfall.

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm not sure winter is done with you, models have been pretty consistent dropping a trough over the lakes and points east around the 18th.  Negative AO and NAO with a big dip in the EPO has the pattern looks ripe for some late season clippers, despite the MJO moving through the warm phases.

I would not be too surprised if we get one spring snowstorm.

The official H/L yesterday was 64/42. Even though the high happened at 2 AM it was the 2nd warmest high for the date also the low of 42 was the 2nd warmest low for the date. There was 0.61” of rain fall (here in MBY I had a total of 0.74”) there was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 40/24 the record high of 68 was in 1973 and the record low of 0 was in 1901 and 1920. The most rainfall of 0.68” was in 1894 the most snowfall of 5.6” was in 1971 the most on the ground is 19” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 41/33 and there was 1” of snowfall.

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1948: Arctic high pressure dominates the first half of March with record lows this morning of 8 below zero at Grand Rapids and 5 below at Muskegon.

1976: Thunderstorms move over cold air near the ground to produce one of the worst ice storms in history across Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. From 2 to 5 inches of ice builds up on trees and power lines, resulting in hundreds of thousands of people without power, some for as long as ten days.

 1900, a two-day snowstorm ended which dropped a total of 16.1 inches of snow in Detroit. This is the third heaviest snowstorm in Detroit since 1880! The storm was the last storm in a series of remarkable snowstorms which saw the 7th heaviest snowstorm on February 19, 1900, and then the 4th heaviest snowstorm on February 28-March 1, 1900. The March 1st and March 5th snowstorms helped to make it the snowiest March on record in Detroit, with 30.2″ of snowfall for the month. This is 23.2″ above average!

 1948, there was an all-time high pressure observed at Detroit of 31.04 inches.

Across the US

1894,  The low temperature of 36 degrees in San Diego, California, on this day was the lowest on record for March.

1959, In Iowa, the record-breaking snowstorm on March 4-6 began with light snow in western Iowa on the morning of the 4th, then spread across the state and intensified with heavy snow falling from the night of the 4th through the 5th and into the early morning on the 6th in eastern Iowa. The snowfall and its subsequent effects were less severe in western Iowa and grew progressively worse, moving eastward. In central Iowa, snowfall amounts were generally 6 to 10 inches. In contrast, in eastern Iowa, a swath of about 12 to 20 inches of snow fell roughly from Appanoose County through Tama County and northeast to Allamakee County. Reported storm total snowfall amounts included 12.9 inches at Waterloo, 14.5 inches at Decorah, 16.0 inches at Oelwein, 17.0 inches at Oskaloosa, 17.6 inches at Dubuque, 19.8 inches at Marshalltown, where 17.8 inches fell in just 24 hours, and 22.0 inches at Fayette where 21.0 inches fell in 24 hours. Winds strengthened steadily during the storm, with speeds reaching 30 to 50 mph at times and causing extensive blowing and drifting of snow. Drifts 6 to 10 feet deep were common, and in northeastern Iowa, a few locations reported drifts 15 to 20 feet deep.

Also in 1959,  Near blizzard conditions occurred over northern and central Oklahoma. Up to seven inches of snow fell and winds up to 50 mph created snow drifts 4 to 8 feet deep. In Edmond, a bus slid off the road into a ditch and overturned, injuring 16 people.

The official H/L yesterday was 70/49 both were records for the date. There was no rainfall before midnight the sun was out 40% of the time and the highest wind gust was 32 MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is now up to 40/24. The record high of 68 was set in 1894 and 1983 the record low of -8 was set in 1948. The record rainfall is 0.82” in 2004 the record snowfall is 7.4” in 1999. The most snow on the ground is 19” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 51/31.

New record highs were set yesterday at Grand Rapids 70, Lansing 69 and Muskegon 67.  A record was tied at Kalamazoo with 72. The 71 at Holland is just short of the record of 72. Record warm minimums were set at Grand Rapids 49, Muskegon 52 and Holland 51.

With light rain falling the current temperature here in MBY is now down to 48 it was above 50 until just before 7 AM.  I now have 0.58" of rainfall so far.

New record highs set today at Grand Rapids 70, Lansing 69 and Muskegon 67.  A record was tied at Kalamazoo with 72. The 71 at Holland is just short of the record of 72.

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1912: Subzero cold continues during one of the coldest months of March on record across Lower Michigan. Muskegon sets a record low of 2 below zero on this morning, during a spell of five straight days below zero.

March 4 has seen many snowstorms across Southeast Michigan. Snowstorms have occurred in 1895, 1899, 1900, 1985, 1999, 2003, and 2008. Many of these storms rated in the top 25 heaviest snowstorms including:

Detroit in 1900 received 16.1 inches of snow for 3rd heaviest snowstorm
Detroit 1895 12.3 10th
Detroit 1899 11.4 15th

Flint 1999 9.1 14th

Saginaw 1985 12.0 16th

Elsewhere in the US

1960, Eastern Massachusetts’ most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals of 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph.

1971, A potent storm system blasted the northeastern U.S. on March 3-5th, 1971. The barometric pressure dropped to 28.36 inches at Worcester, MA, for the lowest pressure recorded at that location.

1983, Brownsville, Texas, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark.

New record highs were set at Muskegon 71 and Holland 68 yesterday. The high at Grand Rapids was the 3^rd warmest for any March 2^nd

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 66/38 there was no rain/snowfall. The highest wind was 33 MPH out of the SE. The sun was out 85% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 39/24 the record high of 66 was set in 1983 and the record low of -3 was set in 1948. The wettest was 1.36” in 1985 there was 4.6” of snowfall that day. The most snowfall is 8.0” in 1900. The most on the ground is 19” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 47/26.

The official H/L yesterday was 54/38 that 54 was the 5th warmest for the date and the 38 was the 2nd warmest minimum for the date. There was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out 78% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 39/23 the record high of 72 was set in 1983 the record low of -9 was set in 1943 the wettest was 1.32” in 1941. The most snowfall is 5.0” in 2007 the most on the ground is 19” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 34/28 and there was 2” of snowfall. For the season so far Grand Rapids has only had 40.3" of snowfall that is -28.5" at Lansing 24.8" -18.6" and at Muskegon 49.7" -29.1"

1 hour ago, Tom said:

We should prob start a brand new ENSO thread for this year...I personally think this has to be one of the biggest flips in ENSO states in my lifetime.  If anyone has any stats on this it would be welcomed...soo, the CFSv2 is suggesting that by the Autumn season the forecasted La Nina could end up becoming a Strong one.  

This would mean we go from a Strong Nino into a Strong La Nina...would this mean the GL's go from a record warm winter to a Record cold winter next season???? 

In looking at El Nino and La Nina records going back to 1950 there have only been 3 times it has gone from a strong or very strong El Nino to a strong La Nina in the same year. There are several more from strong El Nino to weak La Nina. The 3 winter season that has happened since 1950 are 1972/73 strong El Nion to 1973/74 strong La Nina. 1987/88 strong La Nino to 1988/89 strong La Nina and 1997/98 very strong El Nino to a 1998/99 strong El Nina. At Grand Rapids the results are not what you would expect. In the 1972/73 the mean temperature during meteorological winter was 25.5° the snowfall for the season was 65.5” in the next winter 1973/74 the mean for meteorological winter was 24.3° and the total snowfall for the season was 64.4” In the 1987/88 El Nino the meteorological winter mean was 24.3 and the seasons snowfall was 64.2” in the 1988/89 La Nina the meteorological winter mean was 25.8° and the seasons snowfall was 62.2” in the 1997/98 that had a very strong El Nino the meteorological winter mean was 31.5° and the seasons snowfall was 59.8” and in the 1998/99 strong La Nina the meteorological winter mean was 28.6° and that season had 76.7” of snowfall. The current meteorological winter mean at Grand Rapids, Michigan is 27.3 and the current average snowfall for a season is 77.7”

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Little doubt that we're heading for a Nina, but strength is still very much up in the air.  The "spring barrier" can complicate ENSO forecasts, so I'd be a little cautious on predicting strength right now.

72-73 strong Nino flipped to strong Nina in 73-74.  1997-98 also had a huge flip in 1998-99, so there is some precedent, but again, would be cautious for now.

I would tend to agree with not knowing how strong the flip will be.  Also not all strong El Nino's are warm and not all La Nina's are cold. As for Grand Rapids the 3 times have had less than average snowfall for all but the 1998/99 winter season 

As you may already know February 2024 was the warmest on record at Grand Rapids, Lansing, Muskegon and Holland and many other locations across Michigan and the Great Lakes area. The meteorological winter would have been the warmest on record if not for a cold and snowy 9 days in January. As for the winter season Grand Rapids has had only 40.3” of snowfall and is on track for one of the least snowy winters of record. And there so far there have only been 25 days with 1” or more on the ground while 23 is the least we are still in the running for 2^nd place of 30 days set in 1931/32.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/25 there was a reported trace of rainfall and the sun was out 62% of the time. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 60 was set in 1961 and 1983 the record low of -8 was set in 1978. The wettest and most snowfall was in 2002 when 1.26” fell as 13.6” of snowfall. The most snow on the ground was 20” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 40/29

One final note if it does not fall below 40 before midnight today will set a new record for the warmest minimum for any March 2^nd

While we did not have much of a meteorological winter, we are none the less now in meteorological spring. This past meteorological winter with a mean of 33.6 was the 2nd warmest at Grand Rapids.  For March the 30 year average temperature at Grand Rapids 35.7° the 15 year average is 36.3° The average 30 year total precipitation is 2.39” the 15 year average is 2.58” the 30 year average snowfall is 7.6” and the 15 year average is 5.4” The warmest mean average temperature is 50.7 in 2012 the coldest mean temperature is 23.9 in 1960. The wettest March was in 1948 with 5.77” the dryest was in 1910 with 0.08” the snowiest March was in 1965 with 36.0” (that is the 2nd longest running record for snowfall, May is the longest with the record going back to 1923) The least snowfall for March is 0 in 1910 1945 and 2021 had just a trace of snowfall. The record high for March is 87 on March 21, 2012 the record low is -12 on March 8th 1943 it was -8 on March 3rd 2014. The most snowfall for one day is 13.6” on March 2nd 2002 the storm total was 15.3” The most on the ground was 20” in 2014 the most days with 1” or more on the ground was 29 in 1965 in 1960 there were 27 days and in 2014 there were 20 days.  For meteorological spring the 30 year average mean temperature is 47.5° the 15 year average is 48.0° the 30 year average precipitation is 10.30” the 15 year average is 10.71” The 30 year average snowfall amount is 9.6” the 15 year average is 7.6” The most snowfall for any meteorological spring is 41.4” in 1965 the least snowfall for spring is a trace in 1945.