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Mid Valley Duck

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Everything posted by Mid Valley Duck

  1. Mid Valley Duck
    My dog said hell no to going outside IMG_3534.mov
  2. Mid Valley Duck
    No I got some snow. Currently sleet. It has switched back and forth. So don’t worry PDX friends. It took a bit for the column to saturate and cool before going to snow.
  3. Mid Valley Duck
    More than I expected!
  4. Mid Valley Duck
    12z HRRR. If it were to verify, PDX is looking at 4-10” and the warning would need to be updated to a Blizzard Warning for a large part of the metro imo.
  5. Mid Valley Duck
    Time to quit looking at models. The low is starting to blow up on the satellite imagery. It looks very good out there
  6. Mid Valley Duck
    Someone on Facebook today said the UKMET can’t differentiate precip types. So that might be sleet and ZR too but I hope it’s snow!
  7. Mid Valley Duck
    31.1 at my house, with light sleet
  8. Mid Valley Duck
    I’ll enjoy my 3” of sleet
  9. Mid Valley Duck
    Yeah it basically is the same.
  10. Mid Valley Duck
    It’s south of the 12z lol
  11. Mid Valley Duck
    Think models might be having trouble with QPF. This system has plenty of subtropical support.
  12. Mid Valley Duck
    That's a good point. Here are some cross sections of various models for Hillsboro. NAM clearly the most aggressive with the warm nose. But the Euro, GFS, HRRR and Canadian models look like mostly or all snow.
  13. Mid Valley Duck
    NAM wants a lot of sleet, I dont buy it. This would be a good snowstorm imo.
  14. Mid Valley Duck
  15. Mid Valley Duck
    Things that make you go hmmm 12z GFS 1/10/17 1/1/2004 2/7/2014 1/11/1998
  16. Mid Valley Duck
    Yep, all models are showing an intense band tomorrow afternoon/evening where 2-3" an hour snowfall rates are not out of the question. It looks to last anywhere between 3-4 hours.
  17. Mid Valley Duck
    Looking at the maps on the Euro anything above this blue line would be all snow
  18. Mid Valley Duck
    Dont understand the sleet profile on the Euro. This sounding is the warmest one for Hillsboro on the euro.
  19. Mid Valley Duck
    Some food for thought on what the models are showing. If they are off on the northern extent of the precip shield, these totals will be low (see Feb 2014), off on the dynamics (see Jan 2017), off on the battle between WAA and the cold to the east (lots of examples). This is a high variance event. Literally nothing between 2-12" would surprise me at all for the PDX metro. The one scenario I would be surprised with is a shutout (trace to 2"), especially those in Multnomah county.
  20. Mid Valley Duck
    I think some of the models are overdoing the sleet maps. The warm layer is pretty thin around the 850mb level and in the 33/34 degree range. The models might be overdoing the WAA associated with this anyway
  21. Mid Valley Duck
    GEM op struggles with the Gorge. Hi Res GEM dumps on the metro
  22. Mid Valley Duck
    The mesoscale models are coming around for Portland. NAM probably looks the worst, RGEM best
  23. Mid Valley Duck
    With how all over the place the modeling has been on this, nothing will surprise me. I could see a reality where we all get skunked. I also could see one where PDX metro gets 1/10/17 v2.
  24. Mid Valley Duck
    Yeah tonight’s runs have made me very nervous. Originally I was thinking major snowstorm. Now I’m think this might just be a solid one
  25. Mid Valley Duck
    I don’t think 5” of sleet accumulation is even possible. That map is crazy
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