Mid Valley Duck

Siberia trough at that timeframe?

Alaskan ridge is merging/pivoting beautifully next weekend. Going to keep us in the freezer.

Massive improvement days 5-7

We're back baby!

I've thought a lot about this. It has a few things going for it that I think lead to the strong attachment. It's American so that gets a lot of default. It is very accessible (multiple free/paid sites), it runs 4 times a day and has 2 very convenient times for west coast folks (morning and evening) and lastly it runs out to 16 days which leads to extreme results in the long range.

We might be cooking

Definitely an improved run at day 5.5

GEFS starting to pick up on the idea of the block reorganizing next weekend and setting up shop near the sweet spot.

FWIW GEFS control run goes full arctic day 9-11

Portland.

Yep It's in the warmest 3rd of members from hour 132 to hour 234 (so far).

Looking at the Spaghetti chart for the GEFS. The arctic camp is definitely smaller, only 20% drop below -9c. There is a growing cool camp where about 50% are between -5 to -9c for Thursday/Friday.

GEFS is trying to pull off a cleaner ridge merger for next Thursday/Friday.

GEPS is much further west than last night's

We're still a few days away from having certainty. The models and ensembles are all over the place. Here's last night's EPS Member by member view. Some drop the arctic hammer, some throw a massive ridge over us and some are in between. Anyone can take their pick. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-america/m1_geopotential-height-500hpa/20240112-1200z.html

Sign me up for this!

GEM about to drop the hammer at day 7

GEM is still onboard

12z GFS looks improved from last nights around day 5.5. 12z is on top.

Icon has some big differences compared to last nights run. 12z on top

Cold but dry run

The trough at day 6-7 looks like it’s going to carve out further to the west than the 12z Euro did

GFS Op and Control run deviate from each other by day 8. Control goes into the arctic camp

That was the 12z