Jump to content

Mid Valley Duck

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    426

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Mid Valley Duck

  1. Mid Valley Duck
    I’d be good with this, I’m not greedy
  2. Mid Valley Duck
    The RGEM put out some insane precip totals with some crazy freezing rain and sleet totals
  3. Mid Valley Duck
    The mesoscale models are very bearish compared to the global ops. It’s going to be an interesting battle, not going to lie. I’m a little worried about a major bust
  4. Mid Valley Duck
    Holy hell that is a horrific run. It’s crazy it’s so different from everything else
  5. Mid Valley Duck
    Marky Mark is going to bust on amounts
  6. Mid Valley Duck
    Pretty cool to watch the battle between the incoming low pressure system and the cold arctic continental air. Going to be a helluva storm for those where these meet.
  7. Mid Valley Duck
    What happened in 68? What were the regional snow/ice totals?
  8. Mid Valley Duck
    I live 4 miles south of the Marion/Linn county line. It'll be interesting to see the mix I get. Widely varies by the model you are looking at. It does seem like with the first surface low it will be mostly or all snow. The second low it seems like it'll be no snow and all sleet/freezing rain.
  9. Mid Valley Duck
    One thing I've noticed looking at the models for last night and this morning is the mesoscale models are much more bearish on QPF than the operational. I wonder why that is the case. Seems like this system will have pretty good dynamics to it and the low is trending stronger. Anyone know why that might be the case?
  10. Mid Valley Duck
    Not sure I buy that precip shield being that far south. First low comes in around Florence, second around Coos Bay.
  11. Mid Valley Duck
    Euro spreads it further north because the system is more developed. Landfall is near Coos Bay
  12. Mid Valley Duck
    East wind monster hurts PDX snow totals
  13. Mid Valley Duck
    That snowfall happened largely in an 8 hour period. This is 3x as long as that. Honestly think this will surpass that.
  14. Mid Valley Duck
    Congrats PDX friends!
  15. Mid Valley Duck
    Gotta hand it to you Seattle folks, there is no quit in you despite overwhelming evidence you are going to get skunked.
  16. Mid Valley Duck
    Yep you can tell very early on this will be south of the prior run
  17. Mid Valley Duck
    Seattle folks have lost the Spire
  18. Mid Valley Duck
    18z NAM. End frame, snow totals, sleet totals and freezing rain totals.
  19. Mid Valley Duck
    From Mark Nelsen. The part I bolded caught my eye. Quick midday Wednesday update for you, I'll have a full blog post somewhere between 7-9pm this evening... 1) We're in this showers and sunbreaks routine through Thursday. Nothing really eventful except tons more snow in Cascades 2) Weather models now in very good agreement a tremendous blast of cold air pushes through Gorge and out into metro area on Friday. But do we freeze up at noon? Or not until after dark? Too early to know, but we DO know metro area will be frozen AT THE LATEST from Friday evening through MLK Day (Monday). Whatever falls from the sky (weatherwise) will be on the ground all weekend. 3) BUT...disagreement on whether we get moisture for snow on Friday and Saturday or does it stay mainly south of us? Models trending farther south and drier (but not all!) with the precipitation. So...we don't yet know if we're into a full snow/ice storm later Friday or just flurries that day and dry Saturday. Regardless... 4) Time to think about how you'll handle Friday if we wake up and temps are already dropping with snow beginning. That would be the best case scenario because most of us would just stay home and schools would cancel. Of course worst case is if we're well above freezing Friday and many head to work, only to get stuck on snowy/icy roads 2nd part of day. Luckily we have another day to nail down details, but I'm confident you DO need to cover faucets, wrap exposed pipes, drain outdoor water lines etc. Prepare for 15-20 degree temps in metro area this weekend with east wind gusts in the 40-55 mph range Friday night and Saturday morning. This image shows one of the "driest" models keeping snow and ice from Salem southward; at this point I think that's unlikely, although I wouldn't complain... MORE TO COME THIS EVENING...
  20. Mid Valley Duck
    As of now there are only 2 models that someone could reasonably consider that show snow north of PDX. The GFS and Spire (12z run doesnt come in for 2 more hours)
  21. Mid Valley Duck
    EPS is continuing to trend south.
  22. Mid Valley Duck
    Graphcast is way south. PDX stays completely dry. Salem to Eugene gets clipped.
  23. Mid Valley Duck
    I don't think so, could be wrong though. At hour 51 they are basically in the same spot. But the GFS develops the system nicely, while the Euro keeps it very weak until it makes final approach toward the coast. The weaker Euro goes SE while the GFS goes ESE from this point.
  24. Mid Valley Duck
    Yeah a pretty good snowstorm, 10:1 puts me at about 7", kuchera would put me at 4"
  25. Mid Valley Duck
    One thing it did make a move towards the others with is the 2 low structure with a weaker surface low out ahead of the parent low. But significantly less development than the GFS has.
×
×
  • Create New...