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Mid Valley Duck

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Everything posted by Mid Valley Duck

  1. Mid Valley Duck
    Finally develops the low off the coast but it's right at the OR/CA border.
  2. Mid Valley Duck
    Euro just refuses to develop the low compared to the GFS.
  3. Mid Valley Duck
    This may come across as total wishcasting but this gives me vibes of a hybrid between Jan 2004 and Feb 2014.
  4. Mid Valley Duck
    UKMET is about 350 miles south of the GFS and 100 miles south of the GEM with the low at hour 78. GFS UKMET GEM
  5. Mid Valley Duck
    Way south.
  6. Mid Valley Duck
    Slightly miss leading because even some of the far south ones dont give snow down the Willamette Valley. The easiest way to see the southern shift in the overall guidance is the 24 precip map. The GFS is still insistent on Seattle getting snow, just my opinion, I think north of Olympia will be dry.
  7. Mid Valley Duck
    Right now the GFS is the only model with a significant precip shield to the north and northeast of the low's. Even the NAM and GEM has largely abandoned that idea.
  8. Mid Valley Duck
    From your lips to God's ear!
  9. Mid Valley Duck
    Clear trend to the south of the GFS. It's still significantly further north than all other guidance.
  10. Mid Valley Duck
    The GFS is going to look brilliant or incredibly stupid.
  11. Mid Valley Duck
    FWIW 72 hours out for last nights event the ICON had that system south of TWL. So not sure how reliable it is with that far south of a solution. But at face value I wouldn’t even get any precip
  12. Mid Valley Duck
    The 6z was extremely juicy so it’s probably the NAM just being the NAM. Honestly think you, me and TWL could end up the big winners. Which a day or two ago I would have thought it was impossible
  13. Mid Valley Duck
    NAM looks a lot like last nights euro.
  14. Mid Valley Duck
    12z NAM is a lot weaker and further south with the surface low out ahead of the parent low. The way things are trending down the home stretch TWL might be the big winner
  15. Mid Valley Duck
    Also looks further south and with less precip. The 6z NAM was epic from Salem to PDX (6-12”) with more on the way. We’ll see about this run.
  16. Mid Valley Duck
    EPS low locations have really centered on the area between Newport and Coos Bay. Some are as far south as Eureka and some as far north as Seaside. But the bulk go between Newport and Coos Bay.
  17. Mid Valley Duck
    About 0.5”-1” for PDX south to Corvallis, but shifted the northern extent south. Here’s the 0z then the 12z
  18. Mid Valley Duck
    EPS mean snowfall from 4am Friday to 4am Monday
  19. Mid Valley Duck
    It’s plenty strong with the parent low. It just isn’t buying a strong surface low out ahead of it. GFS, GEM and ICON all develop one. The Euro doesn’t
  20. Mid Valley Duck
    The GFS while whiffing horribly on some big picture aspects of this might be getting that piece right. While it’s the opposite for the euro.
  21. Mid Valley Duck
    No first low. The second low is the parent low. The Euro is bearish on the surface low developing out ahead of the parent low. The Euro and UKMET say no to that feature. The NCEP products and GEM say yes. For Oregon we'd want the structure to be the GFS with the Euro's track and landfall.
  22. Mid Valley Duck
    Euro is very dry. The GFS is world's apart with track, landfall and QPF with that system. The euro doesnt even show the surface low out ahead of the parent low.
  23. Mid Valley Duck
    Euro is just so dry to the NE side of the low.
  24. Mid Valley Duck
    Can't say I've ever seen an ensemble shift to this degree in one run inside of 4 days
  25. Mid Valley Duck
    UKMET landfall is Coos Bay but the precip shield is shunted far to the south. My house doesnt even get a half an inch of precip.
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